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One should factor in that Norway's petroleum exports are ~50% natural gas (of which <1% goes to fuels for cars) and ~50% oil (of which ~60% becomes fuel for car

One should factor in that Norway's petroleum exports are ~50% natural gas (of which <1% goes to fuels for cars) and ~50% oil (of which ~60% becomes fuel for cars, trucks, tractors, excavators, airplanes, etc.). So the total "negative exposure" towards EVs if all cars everywhere become electric is <30%. Furthermore, the retail sales of gasoline and diesel fuel has not yet shown any decline in Norway [1], despite EV-subsidising policies being in effect for a decade. So decreased fuel sales volume has a many-year (perhaps even decade) long lag behind increased EV sales. (The average Norwegian car is 17 years when it is scrapped.) [1] https://www.ssb.no/en/energi-og-industri/statistikker/petroleumsalg/aar https://www.ssb.no/en/energi-og-industri/statistikker/petrol... - petroleum product sales statistics, English description, you can export to csv file.

igravious 9y ago
> the retail sales of gasoline and diesel fuel has not yet shown any decline in Norway [1] Odd. The stats you point to say otherwise. Says motor gasoline is down (1.9%) and diesel is up (4.7%) – so it's kind of a wash. More interestingly (in the context of this news of divestment) the total figures are down year on year on year (in 1000 litres units) 2012 9 635 521 2013 9 279 405 2014 8 995 567 2015 8 827 093 2016 8 790 684 In light of those figures divestment looks sensible.
- semi-extrinsic 9y ago
  No, you have to look at just the sum of dutiable diesel and gasoline, which shows no decrease (even an increase). Most of the change you're summarizing above is reduced usage of light fuel oil (for heating), marine fuel and heavy distillate, particularly the latter two. Those changes are not caused by EVs.
dagss 9y ago
Oil in the arctic costs $40 or more to extract. Oil in Saudi-Arabia costs, what, $15? So at the very least there is a 50% exposure as the oil price will fall for all oil. It is not like Norway is the sole exporter. If oil price drops and there is a race to the bottom, only the cheap sources will sell. Norwegian oil is among the most expensive to produce (that is currently operated with the hope of profit). If oil price drops too far you coild imagine gasoline and diesel generators taking over for gas :p or at least NLG taking a hit... the energy market is coupled.

igravious 9y ago

> the retail sales of gasoline and diesel fuel has not yet shown any decline in Norway [1] Odd. The stats you point to say otherwise. Says motor gasoline is down (1.9%) and diesel is up (4.7%) – so it's kind of a wash. More interestingly (in the context of this news of divestment) the total figures are down year on year on year (in 1000 litres units) 2012 9 635 521 2013 9 279 405 2014 8 995 567 2015 8 827 093 2016 8 790 684 In light of those figures divestment looks sensible.

semi-extrinsic 9y ago
No, you have to look at just the sum of dutiable diesel and gasoline, which shows no decrease (even an increase). Most of the change you're summarizing above is reduced usage of light fuel oil (for heating), marine fuel and heavy distillate, particularly the latter two. Those changes are not caused by EVs.

dagss 9y ago

Oil in the arctic costs $40 or more to extract. Oil in Saudi-Arabia costs, what, $15? So at the very least there is a 50% exposure as the oil price will fall for all oil. It is not like Norway is the sole exporter. If oil price drops and there is a race to the bottom, only the cheap sources will sell. Norwegian oil is among the most expensive to produce (that is currently operated with the hope of profit). If oil price drops too far you coild imagine gasoline and diesel generators taking over for gas :p or at least NLG taking a hit... the energy market is coupled.