If you have a look at the paper (figure 12), although the actual location of some cities lie outside the predicted confidence regions, the model gives a pretty

If you have a look at the paper (figure 12), although the actual location of some cities lie outside the predicted confidence regions, the model gives a pretty good hint of where they are. It is easy to see how the study could be followed adding other factors such as geographical data, or the goods that are traded between different regions. But still, this simple model gives a very good estimation. I may be wrong, archaeology is not my field, but I'd guess 2/3 is a high probability by their standards. I do not think they usually have so many chances when they start digging.