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Thank you for your comment! Making the case for becoming a founder using math is tough. It's well possible that the expected value is higher for an employee ca

by chrija 9y ago

Thank you for your comment! Making the case for becoming a founder using math is tough. It's well possible that the expected value is higher for an employee career because, as you say, most startups fail, although it's difficult to do this comparison really well methodologically. I think if you become a founder you do it because you just want to start your own thing and love the freedom and satisfaction of working on your own idea. And maybe because you think you can beat the odds and get rich. As an aside, the probability of a startup to become a unicorn may be 1 in 10,000, but the chances for a more modest (but still financially very rewarding) outcome, say a $20M exit, are of course much higher. Also, you learn so much as a founder that your chances increase for your 2nd or 3rd startup.

Nuzzerino 9y ago
This topic has been studied in depth. I recommend a thorough read of this paper before being tempted to use gut-feelings. http://web.stanford.edu/~rehall/Hall-Woodward%20on%20entrepreneurship.pdf http://web.stanford.edu/~rehall/Hall-Woodward%20on%20entrepr...
prewett 9y ago
I'd say the expected value is almost certainly higher for an employee career, assuming some financial discipline. After 10 years so in the industry, you should be able to get $100k/year, more in high expense areas. That's $5.8k/month after taxes (assume 30%). Assuming you are single, at $1k/month rent, $300/month food, and $700/month for other things, you have $3.8k/month left over. That's about $45k/year you can save, say $50k for easy math. So in 20 years, you can save $1 million, buy some large-cap stock at 3% dividend and have $30k/year for free (more if you buy a higher-yield utility-type stock like AT&T or Verizon). But the stock market grows by 6 - 8%, on average. If you invest in large, "safe" companies, or in an S&P 500 index fund, at 7%, you'll double your money in 10 years, so you'll end up with $2 million (I did the math on a spreadsheet: yearN = yearN-1 * 1.07 + $50k). That's $60k/year at age 50 (not including 401k matching, and assuming that ages 20 - 30 are years of profligate spending with no saving), about as risk-free as you get. Compare that with a statistical 90% of failure starting a company, but frequently resulting the loss of the founder's savings due to having invested it in the company. Basically the startup should give at least $50k/year of increase (above the cost of living), plus a 7%/year growth, so for two years doing a startup, you need to walk away with a little over $100k. At a 90% failure rate, you need to exit at $1 million for the expected value to break even. If you are not the sole owner and/or with VC funding it will need to be even higher. (If you are an early employee getting 1% or something you'd need about a $1 billion exit for a positive expected value.) That's some pretty uncompelling math. It gets even worse if you have a family.
- sokoloff 9y ago
  > After 10 years so in the industry, you should be able to get $100k/year, more in high expense areas. Indeed it's higher in some areas. In Metro Boston, that's not uncommon compensation 10 seconds into your career. You might find this blog entry interesting and on the same line of thinking you laid out above: http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/01/13/the-shockingly-simple-math-behind-early-retirement/ http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/01/13/the-shockingly-sim...

by chrija 9y ago

Nuzzerino 9y ago

This topic has been studied in depth. I recommend a thorough read of this paper before being tempted to use gut-feelings. http://web.stanford.edu/~rehall/Hall-Woodward%20on%20entrepreneurship.pdf http://web.stanford.edu/~rehall/Hall-Woodward%20on%20entrepr...

prewett 9y ago

I'd say the expected value is almost certainly higher for an employee career, assuming some financial discipline. After 10 years so in the industry, you should be able to get $100k/year, more in high expense areas. That's $5.8k/month after taxes (assume 30%). Assuming you are single, at $1k/month rent, $300/month food, and $700/month for other things, you have $3.8k/month left over. That's about $45k/year you can save, say $50k for easy math. So in 20 years, you can save $1 million, buy some large-cap stock at 3% dividend and have $30k/year for free (more if you buy a higher-yield utility-type stock like AT&T or Verizon). But the stock market grows by 6 - 8%, on average. If you invest in large, "safe" companies, or in an S&P 500 index fund, at 7%, you'll double your money in 10 years, so you'll end up with $2 million (I did the math on a spreadsheet: yearN = yearN-1 * 1.07 + $50k). That's $60k/year at age 50 (not including 401k matching, and assuming that ages 20 - 30 are years of profligate spending with no saving), about as risk-free as you get. Compare that with a statistical 90% of failure starting a company, but frequently resulting the loss of the founder's savings due to having invested it in the company. Basically the startup should give at least $50k/year of increase (above the cost of living), plus a 7%/year growth, so for two years doing a startup, you need to walk away with a little over $100k. At a 90% failure rate, you need to exit at $1 million for the expected value to break even. If you are not the sole owner and/or with VC funding it will need to be even higher. (If you are an early employee getting 1% or something you'd need about a $1 billion exit for a positive expected value.) That's some pretty uncompelling math. It gets even worse if you have a family.

sokoloff 9y ago
> After 10 years so in the industry, you should be able to get $100k/year, more in high expense areas. Indeed it's higher in some areas. In Metro Boston, that's not uncommon compensation 10 seconds into your career. You might find this blog entry interesting and on the same line of thinking you laid out above: http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/01/13/the-shockingly-simple-math-behind-early-retirement/ http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/01/13/the-shockingly-sim...