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During the unveiling Musk's cost was 1.51/mile for diesel semi, 1.21/m for Tesla @2.5/diesel & $.07/kwh. But a bit of Googling says avg. US prices are $.12/kwh

During the unveiling Musk's cost was 1.51/mile for diesel semi, 1.21/m for Tesla @2.5/diesel & $.07/kwh. But a bit of Googling says avg. US prices are $.12/kwh, so $2.07/mile--133% the cost of a diesel semi. So is Tesla able to negotiate subsidized rates? Or are buyers purchasing for some other reason? Or is somehing way off here? 0

mjamesaustin 9y ago
During the presentation, Musk says that Tesla will guarantee $.07/kwh for all their trucks. So his numbers are based upon that.
- qyv 9y ago
  I wonder how that guarantee will be realized? Subsidies? Unless I am missing something, this seems to be artificially lower operating costs of the Semi in order to make to favorable to diesel.
  - mch82 9y ago
    Solar chargers built by Tesla’s solar business unit
    - zzzzzzzza 9y ago
      they said their factory would be powered by solar panels (it's not) and their superchargers would be solar powered as well (they're not). Kind of one of those things like battery swapping that's not as practical as it sounds.
  - withdavidli 9y ago
    Not an expert in this field, with costs or anything. My guess if not subsidies, it's a bet that electric energy will be cheaper, or batteries get more efficient to meet that price point in the 2-3 years it takes to ramp up production. In that time, they can get pre-orders. This reminds me of car companies advertising guaranteed gas prices for certain types of cars back when gas started hitting $3/$4 mark. I would see commercials of new cars saying $2.50/g for the next 5 years or something similar. Found one: https://www.caranddriver.com/news/chrysler-extends-gas-card-promotion-another-month-car-news https://www.caranddriver.com/news/chrysler-extends-gas-card-... Chrysler, $2.99/g for 3 years if you buy new car.
jimrandomh 9y ago
$.12/kWh is the residential price; for industrial consumers the average price of electricity is $.0725 ( https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_a https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.ph... ). A truck depot with chargers is more like an industrial consumer than a residential one.
- wallace_f 9y ago
  Thanks for pointing that out. Given the grid is 65%+ fossil fuels, it is counter intuitive that: A) Fossil fuels+nuclear+renewables to generate chemical/heat energy -> converting to mechanical energy -> converting to DC electric energy -> converting to AC -> transmitting over long distances -> charge & store it in a chemical battery -> convert electrical energy back to mechanical. Is cheaper than just the first two steps in the above, B) Burning fossil fuels to generate chemical/heat energy -> converting to mechanical energy. Large heat engines (power plants) can be more efficient than small heat engines, but all those conversions above have significant losses. I suppose it's some combination of coal & gas being cheaper than gasoline, but I suspect some significant regulatory manipulation (whether for better or worse) is at play here. In other words, perhaps if electric semis are viable, it will have more to do with Regulatory Capture than purely a free market outcome.
  - maxerickson 9y ago
    Fuel has a step equivalent to the "transmitting over long distances". In many areas a considerable portion of fuel transport is a semi hauling a tanker, which is a bit less convenient than a pipeline or power line.
- larkeith 9y ago
  It should also be noted that companies with large fleets may well station their initial Tesla Semis in locations with lower electric rates - for example, Oregon and Washington have quite cheap power due to a large amount of hydro ($.0685/kWh up to 1mW for residential in Portland, e.g. [1]). With only 15 orders to add to Walmart's 6,000 trucks, it will be quite a while before they need to send any to the more expensive locales. [1] https://www.portlandgeneral.com/residential/power-choices/basic-service https://www.portlandgeneral.com/residential/power-choices/ba...
atonalfreerider 9y ago
Solar can cost as low as $.06 / kWh (without subsides) : https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/solar-now-costs-6-per-kilowatt-hour-beating-government-goal-by-3-years/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/solar-now-costs-6-pe...
- wallace_f 9y ago
  >installed cost for utility-scale solar This article seems to be perhaps a bit loose about what exactly is being quoted here. AFAIK this is cost per kwh generated at utility scale.

mjamesaustin 9y ago

During the presentation, Musk says that Tesla will guarantee $.07/kwh for all their trucks. So his numbers are based upon that.

qyv 9y ago
I wonder how that guarantee will be realized? Subsidies? Unless I am missing something, this seems to be artificially lower operating costs of the Semi in order to make to favorable to diesel.
- mch82 9y ago
  Solar chargers built by Tesla’s solar business unit
  - zzzzzzzza 9y ago
    they said their factory would be powered by solar panels (it's not) and their superchargers would be solar powered as well (they're not). Kind of one of those things like battery swapping that's not as practical as it sounds.
- withdavidli 9y ago
  Not an expert in this field, with costs or anything. My guess if not subsidies, it's a bet that electric energy will be cheaper, or batteries get more efficient to meet that price point in the 2-3 years it takes to ramp up production. In that time, they can get pre-orders. This reminds me of car companies advertising guaranteed gas prices for certain types of cars back when gas started hitting $3/$4 mark. I would see commercials of new cars saying $2.50/g for the next 5 years or something similar. Found one: https://www.caranddriver.com/news/chrysler-extends-gas-card-promotion-another-month-car-news https://www.caranddriver.com/news/chrysler-extends-gas-card-... Chrysler, $2.99/g for 3 years if you buy new car.

jimrandomh 9y ago

$.12/kWh is the residential price; for industrial consumers the average price of electricity is $.0725 ( https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_a https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.ph... ). A truck depot with chargers is more like an industrial consumer than a residential one.

wallace_f 9y ago
Thanks for pointing that out. Given the grid is 65%+ fossil fuels, it is counter intuitive that: A) Fossil fuels+nuclear+renewables to generate chemical/heat energy -> converting to mechanical energy -> converting to DC electric energy -> converting to AC -> transmitting over long distances -> charge & store it in a chemical battery -> convert electrical energy back to mechanical. Is cheaper than just the first two steps in the above, B) Burning fossil fuels to generate chemical/heat energy -> converting to mechanical energy. Large heat engines (power plants) can be more efficient than small heat engines, but all those conversions above have significant losses. I suppose it's some combination of coal & gas being cheaper than gasoline, but I suspect some significant regulatory manipulation (whether for better or worse) is at play here. In other words, perhaps if electric semis are viable, it will have more to do with Regulatory Capture than purely a free market outcome.
- maxerickson 9y ago
  Fuel has a step equivalent to the "transmitting over long distances". In many areas a considerable portion of fuel transport is a semi hauling a tanker, which is a bit less convenient than a pipeline or power line.
larkeith 9y ago
It should also be noted that companies with large fleets may well station their initial Tesla Semis in locations with lower electric rates - for example, Oregon and Washington have quite cheap power due to a large amount of hydro ($.0685/kWh up to 1mW for residential in Portland, e.g. [1]). With only 15 orders to add to Walmart's 6,000 trucks, it will be quite a while before they need to send any to the more expensive locales. [1] https://www.portlandgeneral.com/residential/power-choices/basic-service https://www.portlandgeneral.com/residential/power-choices/ba...

atonalfreerider 9y ago

Solar can cost as low as $.06 / kWh (without subsides) : https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/solar-now-costs-6-per-kilowatt-hour-beating-government-goal-by-3-years/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/solar-now-costs-6-pe...

wallace_f 9y ago
>installed cost for utility-scale solar This article seems to be perhaps a bit loose about what exactly is being quoted here. AFAIK this is cost per kwh generated at utility scale.