7 ms·

Is The Guitar Market Really Dying?

40 points by himynamesdave 9y ago

AdmiralAsshat 9y ago
Are we sure people aren't just shifting to buying more used guitars on Craigslist or something?
- jasode 9y ago
  On just about every observable measure ... including cruise ships[1], guitar is dying in popularity. You might get a few minor bumps of new interest because of recent artists like Taylor Swift but overall, guitar is way down. I learned guitar and never imagined that the instrument would fade but that's exactly what has happened. Electronic music and laptops are this generation's instrument of choice. [1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/bobbyowsinski/2013/10/08/the-demise-of-the-electric-guitar-in-music/#7c61b27a2295 https://www.forbes.com/sites/bobbyowsinski/2013/10/08/the-de...
  - mabub24 9y ago
    I think there are 3 reasons why the guitar is "dying" as the instrument of choice: 1. The explosion in popularity of EDM in the mid 00's to early 10's, and the prevalence of EDM elements now dominating pop music rather than the notion of a backing band; most pop bands now feature a guitarist, but the guitar is secondary to synths and samples if it is heard at all. 2. The rise of hip-hop, mixtape culture online, and hip-hop focused rock music in the 90's and early 00's, shifted popular rock music and the cultural zeitgeist away from a focus on guitar-driven rock music. Once again samples and synths became the focus, even in punk music. This lead to a new focus: "indie" rock and the internet could make anyone with a laptop famous. 3. The general decline in rock music quality. I might be alone in this opinion, but popular rock music in the early 00's to today remains bland and the guitar equally so. This era also saw the rebirth of hardcore and more extreme forms of metal where the guitar remains the focus, and creativity abounds, but out of the public eye.
bagrow 9y ago
Maybe, but isolating particular trends from overall changes in search interests is challenging. Here's the trend for "music": https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=music https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=music which is also decreasing. Is music dying?
- deleted 9y ago
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- excalibur 9y ago
  > Is music dying? Is that a rhetorical question? Exhibit A: https://youtu.be/-toRUB2ctcY https://youtu.be/-toRUB2ctcY
- brudgers 9y ago
  Software changed the industry. There are more efficient places to search for music than Google. They are more efficient because from search to playing or playlist is one click.
erichmond 9y ago
Electronic samples are the new guitars.
- npgatech 9y ago
  That is ridiculous. Electronic music production is a completely separate market.
  - jonknee 9y ago
    A separate market that is taking market share from guitars...
  - civilian 9y ago
    To some extent, everything competes in markets. I could spend $500 on a guitar, or on a clunky car. Which one should I get? Well, it kind of depends on my needs. Both Electronic music production and guitars exist in the "music production and playing" market. It makes sense that they'd compete.
stcredzero 9y ago
I suspect that this should really be thought of as, "The biggest buying opportunity, ever!" in the guitar market.
- jasode 9y ago
  A lot of people are predicting an "ebay guitar apocalypse" as the mass effect of guitar owners start passing away. Because "nobody plays them anymore", the inheritors of dad's property will just put the guitar collection on ebay or donate them. Your dad's fancy Paul Reed Smith guitar that cost $3000 will only be worth a fraction of that when a million other used PRS guitars flood the market. It's an interesting prediction.
  - elihu 9y ago
    I think that eBay is already affecting price in a different way: buyers and sellers tend to use eBay price to figure out what a guitar is worth before buying and selling in person. Since used guitars are a risky purchase (there could be a lot of things wrong that don't show up in pictures), the eBay price is artificially depressed. However, since the eBay price is seen as the "fair market price", it deflates the price everywhere. This could go the other way, as well: if sellers refuse to sell a certain kind of guitar on eBay, the price could become inflated.
  - stcredzero 9y ago
    Because "nobody plays them anymore", the inheritors of dad's property will just put the guitar collection on ebay or donate them. You already have this in instrument markets for traditional music. Trad musicians are minorities in the general culture, but their market demand for once-mainstream mass produced instruments of yesteryear can still support prices. (Paolo Soprani B,C button accordion, anyone?) Sure, you still have the occasional find, where someone sells something for 1/10th the price they could have gotten out of ignorance. I wonder if everyone is going to be satisfied with making music on a laptop? I also wonder if playing a guitar is ever going to stop getting people laid? If you have both of these conditions, then guitars might go the way of the Flageolett. Historically, "outdated" instruments flooding markets at bargain prices have tended to give rise to new musical opportunities in underprivileged communities. Occasionally, they give rise to new genres.
iamcasen 9y ago
As a life-long guitarist, and skeptic of capitalism, I have an anecdote: I own a few high-quality guitars. They have served me well for many a decade, and they are still in perfect condition. Why buy any more guitars? Perhaps the total number of guitars in circulation is enough? Businesses seem to think that there should be infinite growth forever, but that seems ridiculous to me. I don't think capitalism has a good answer to this problem. Obviously the manufacturers wish for people to buy more and more guitars every year or they go out of business. How can we reward them for a job well done now that more aren't needed?
- AdmiralAsshat 9y ago
  That would be my question, too. People were puzzled when tablet sales came to a crawl, until they started to consider whether people stopped buying them because they were good enough and still worked. I mean realistically, how many guitars does one need? I'm an amateur bass player. I have a cheap-ass practice bass and, if I get some pocket change, I may buy a $1500 professional bass. I would think that should last me for the next ten years or so. If I become a professional musician, I might buy more, but for your average slob, that's really not tenable.
  - wishinghand 9y ago
    My personal answer to "how many guitars do you need?" is basically one for each tuning that I use regularly. Unless it's simply changing one string from E to D, re-tuning a whole guitar is a pain in the ass and just being able to swap guitars is a lot nicer. I have one for standard tuning, one tuned like a cello, and one in open D-minor. I do admit if you're playing a bass guitar this rule isn't as applicable.
    - hinkley 9y ago
      My dad loves to tell a story about a Q&A session with Norm Abram of PBS [Edit: This Old House, New Yankee Workshop] fame, which your answer reminds me of. Why does Norm own an entire drawer full of routers? Well, he used to ask himself the same question. All these companies kept giving him free tools as a promotion. Especially routers. He had dozens of them. WTF do I need all these routers for? It occurred to him that if at the start of a project you put a bit into a router and don't touch it until the end of the project, all of your routed edges will match exactly. Even if you screw up and have to redo a piece. So he kept enough routers to do that. He still gets teased about it by his coworkers though.
claudiulodro 9y ago
Reverb.com was #18 on the Inc. 5000 this year, so there is definitely still potential in selling musical instruments. Guitar is more niche than it used to be, though. The rock stars these days are rappers and DJs and they don't play guitar. You have to diversify your offerings (which I think the success of Reverb.com shows)
- micaksica 9y ago
  > The rock stars these days are rappers and DJs and they don't play guitar. And nearly every kid can afford a shitty chinese USB->MIDI controller and a cracked version of Live/Logic/FL Studio. The DAW and a controller is the weapon of choice for today's pop music industry. The fact that guitar is dying as "mainstream" shouldn't come as much of a surprise.
  - ams6110 9y ago
    We just need to wait a generation. Then digitally generated pop will be seen as"mom and dad's music" and real instruments will be novel and interesting.
bherms 9y ago
As a lifetime guitar player and owner of way too many, I think what I've seen (and keep in mind this is only anecdotal) is that boutique guitar makers are making a big comeback while traditional mass producers are seeing less interest. If I'm going to spend $2500-7500 on a top of the line guitar (that is often an art piece as well) I'd rather work with a craft builder and get something unique to my specs versus a mass produced Fender strat or Gibson Les Paul.
- levicole 9y ago
  Bingo! I'd say it's similar to the craft beer movement.
  - bherms 9y ago
    Exactly... I think my generation specifically (Gen Y) is 1) starting to come into having disposable income (hitting our 30's mostly), 2) skeptical of traditional marketing, big corporations (to some extent), etc, 3) learning to value craftsmen/women and quality goods over brand names. It's an interesting shift to watch.
    - cr0sh 9y ago
      I know you can't trust me because I'm just another stranger on the internet, but I worked for Fender briefly in their marketing department a few years back (as a web developer). I can unequivocally say that they still care about valuing craftsmanship of their products. It may not be to the level of an individual craftsperson constructing a one-off instrument, but it is there. At least, that's what I perceived while I was there. But take my words for whatever they're worth; I don't play guitar, nor did I take advantage of learning while I was there (part of me regrets not doing so, as the employee discounts were generous, but I still couldn't justify another potentially expensive hobby).
      - bherms 9y ago
        I definitely believe you. Both Gibson and Fender are awesome companies and do make great instruments with amazing quality control. They're as American as apple pie as well... I have zero hate for either brand, but personally for my money, if I'm spending big, I'd go for something really unique.. For example, I'd really love a Jersey Girl or a Robert de la Garza: http://jerseygirlhg.com/composition/branches/spot/images/02.jpg http://jerseygirlhg.com/composition/branches/spot/images/02.... https://static.wixstatic.com/media/2b245d_55366c7247ed436480fe8aa258e54dca~mv2.jpg/v1/fill/w_336,h_420,q_85,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01/2b245d_55366c7247ed436480fe8aa258e54dca~mv2.jpg https://static.wixstatic.com/media/2b245d_55366c7247ed436480... Those will set you back roughly $6000 each though :( http://jerseygirlhg.com/composition http://jerseygirlhg.com/composition
sssilver 9y ago
Relevant discussion -- https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14627673 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14627673
mgdo 9y ago
Some interesting and related Google Trends: - "Learn Guitar": https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=learn%20guitar https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=learn%20... - "Play Guitar": https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=play%20guitar https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=play%20g... - "Guitar vs Piano": https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=guitar,piano https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=guitar,p...
- deleted 9y ago
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exabrial 9y ago
Did you know you can buy a $350 "Gibson Les Paul" that says "made in the USA" on AliExpress? The guitar in question is CNC cut and then hand assembled. I may speak from experience when I say the item is very high quality and is a pretty danged good guitar. The point here being that it's an industry what are the American players have not modernized their manufacturing process... We live in an amazing age where you can own an extraordinary instrument for very little money.
- synthmeat 9y ago
  Link? [1] gives me no results for that price range and search keywords. [1] https://www.aliexpress.com/wholesale?minPrice=300&maxPrice=400&isBigSale=n&isFreeShip=n&isNew=n&isFavorite=n&isMobileExclusive=n&isLocalReturn=n&shipCountry=HR&shipFromCountry=&shipCompanies=&SearchText=gibson+les+paul&CatId=0&g=y&initiative_id=SB_20171117145736&needQuery=y https://www.aliexpress.com/wholesale?minPrice=300&maxPrice=4...
  - bherms 9y ago
    Didn't see any marketing themselves as Gibsons, but here's a "Gretsch" White Falcon in that range: https://www.aliexpress.com/item/Hot-selling-white-Gretsch-falcon-jazz-guitar-semi-hollow-boby-electric-guitar-with-bigsby/32790108832.html?spm=2114.search0104.3.136.01pKbC&ws_ab_test=searchweb0_0,searchweb201602_2_10152_10065_10151_10344_10068_10130_10345_10324_10342_10547_10325_10343_10546_10340_10341_10548_10545_10541_10562_10084_10083_10307_5680011_10178_10060_10155_10154_10539_10312_10059_10313_10314_10534_10533_100031_10103_10073_10594_10557_10558_10596_10595_10142_10107,searchweb201603_25,ppcSwitch_2&btsid=f3b80840-5bbc-4506-9b4a-ae0ab1dd7406&algo_expid=8d9d3bf4-8c33-4f11-8496-edd81b8b3334-17&algo_pvid=8d9d3bf4-8c33-4f11-8496-edd81b8b3334&rmStoreLevelAB=0 https://www.aliexpress.com/item/Hot-selling-white-Gretsch-fa...
chiefalchemist 9y ago
Music tastes run in cycles. If vinyl can make a comeback so might guitars. That said, anecdotally, kids today don't do adversity; they want instant gratification. Learning to play guitar takes time, lots of it. In the current climate a comeback seems pretty unlikely.
- eroccatlun 9y ago
  Oddly, there are some amazing young guitarists... though obviously, anyone who is already great has likely been at it for 10+ years, so there may be a significant shortage 10 years from now.
- surrey-fringe 9y ago
  Yeah, I always associated your generation's music with hard work and discipline. Jimmy Hendrix and The Who and the like.
  - chiefalchemist 9y ago
    My era was more The Clash, Joy Division, and the like :)
- mandelbrotwurst 9y ago
  Eh, get off my lawn with your generalizations about "kids today" =/ Maybe at least provide one of your anecdotes?
  - chiefalchemist 9y ago
    How about I get off your cloud? ;)
- stcredzero 9y ago
  That said, anecdotally, kids today don't do adversity; they want instant gratification My experience: In the 1990's, a kid given the video game "weapons station of a starship" probably starts pressing controls and blowing stuff up. In 2014, a kid presented with the video game "weapons station of a starship" freezes and meekly waits for instruction from an adult.
jamestimmins 9y ago
Brings to mind the quote "Guitar groups are on their way out, Mr Epstein." This was a music exec telling The Beatles' manager why he wouldn't sign them.
mbroncano 9y ago
Everything old is new again. I wasn't even a teenager when everybody was convinced the guitar bands were gone for good. As mentioned somewhere else in the thread, back in the sixties the same history. I'm been playing for almost 30 years, and what I've seen in the last few ones is, I can buy a guitar for 300 bucks that beats anything that I owned as a teenager for that same price. And I'm not even touching the amp market, it's crazy what the same money can buy in terms of quality and flexibility. I'm hesitant about this, but I'm half sure this deflactionaty process is going to actually popularize playing the guitar in the middle term.
albutr 9y ago
There's a surprising amount of cork-sniffing that goes on in the guitar world, and I think that plays a role in slowing down the decline of the guitar market. Just try searching for advice on what guitar to buy, and you'll be inundated with people claiming that tiny little differences (e.g. rosewood vs maple fretboards or lacquer vs poly finishes on an electric) have huge effects on the overall sounds, which is clearly not true. The idea that there's always something better to buy drives some people to keep purchasing. I'm sure there's some degree of this with other instruments, but guitar seems to be particularly bad.
- deleted 9y ago
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rumblestrut 9y ago
I would love to buy a new guitar. I had a PRS in the 90’s and loved it. I never should have sold it. A lot of guitars (PRS included) are now made cheaply overseas. They’re decent, but to me they’re still not good enough. I think they’re crap. It’s a shame the industry has fallen, but the industry did this to itself. But rest assured, guitar rock will eventually make a comeback. Music trends in waves. Will the guitar industry be ready when it does?
MarceloBirnbach 9y ago
at Bandhub (http://bandhub.com http://bandhub.com) we try to solve a fundamental problem most recreational musicians have... we give them a community of like-minded people who care about their music, and the tools to make music together online. Musicians who get engaged in Bandhub obtain meaningful social experiences. We believe this market needs to be disrupted in a similar way to what happened with online social gaming
rapjr9 9y ago
Maybe guitar makers are not innovating? Other stringed instruments have basically remained the same for centuries, but electric guitars were born out of modifications to standard guitars. Hendrix was a guitar hacker. Most of the electric guitars on the market today are no different than those sold 30 years ago. There are a few new ideas (midi accessories, built in effects, the Moog guitar, more than 6 strings, Steinberger's, cryogenically treated strings, better tremolo's, guitar synths) but few people are into hacking guitars any more. Your mom and dad may play electric guitar, it isn't radical or rebellious. And few are trying to invent new styles of playing either. So the sound and use of guitars has remained fairly static for a long time (except for Fred Frith!). Perhaps this explains the recent interest in Eurorack synthesizers? A return to creating fundamentally new sounds by tinkering with the basic elements of sound. It's kind of like the smartphone market, the manufacturers have tried all the easy improvements (bigger screens, faster CPU's, better GPU's, thin bodies) but haven't tried the more difficult things (unusual sensors, regional peer-2-peer communication, serious FDA approved medical sensing/apps, light based communication, UWB links into IoT networks, etc.) Though AI chips may result in some significant new ideas. Maybe deep learning AI chips for guitars would rev the market? You teach your guitar some notes/chords and then it can generate different arrangements/timings/bends for you that actually sound interesting? Maybe not since deep learning can only mimic what it learns.

40 points by himynamesdave 9y ago

AdmiralAsshat 9y ago

Are we sure people aren't just shifting to buying more used guitars on Craigslist or something?

jasode 9y ago
On just about every observable measure ... including cruise ships[1], guitar is dying in popularity. You might get a few minor bumps of new interest because of recent artists like Taylor Swift but overall, guitar is way down. I learned guitar and never imagined that the instrument would fade but that's exactly what has happened. Electronic music and laptops are this generation's instrument of choice. [1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/bobbyowsinski/2013/10/08/the-demise-of-the-electric-guitar-in-music/#7c61b27a2295 https://www.forbes.com/sites/bobbyowsinski/2013/10/08/the-de...
- mabub24 9y ago
  I think there are 3 reasons why the guitar is "dying" as the instrument of choice: 1. The explosion in popularity of EDM in the mid 00's to early 10's, and the prevalence of EDM elements now dominating pop music rather than the notion of a backing band; most pop bands now feature a guitarist, but the guitar is secondary to synths and samples if it is heard at all. 2. The rise of hip-hop, mixtape culture online, and hip-hop focused rock music in the 90's and early 00's, shifted popular rock music and the cultural zeitgeist away from a focus on guitar-driven rock music. Once again samples and synths became the focus, even in punk music. This lead to a new focus: "indie" rock and the internet could make anyone with a laptop famous. 3. The general decline in rock music quality. I might be alone in this opinion, but popular rock music in the early 00's to today remains bland and the guitar equally so. This era also saw the rebirth of hardcore and more extreme forms of metal where the guitar remains the focus, and creativity abounds, but out of the public eye.

bagrow 9y ago

Maybe, but isolating particular trends from overall changes in search interests is challenging. Here's the trend for "music": https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=music https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=music which is also decreasing. Is music dying?

deleted 9y ago
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excalibur 9y ago
> Is music dying? Is that a rhetorical question? Exhibit A: https://youtu.be/-toRUB2ctcY https://youtu.be/-toRUB2ctcY
brudgers 9y ago
Software changed the industry. There are more efficient places to search for music than Google. They are more efficient because from search to playing or playlist is one click.

erichmond 9y ago

Electronic samples are the new guitars.

npgatech 9y ago
That is ridiculous. Electronic music production is a completely separate market.
- jonknee 9y ago
  A separate market that is taking market share from guitars...
- civilian 9y ago
  To some extent, everything competes in markets. I could spend $500 on a guitar, or on a clunky car. Which one should I get? Well, it kind of depends on my needs. Both Electronic music production and guitars exist in the "music production and playing" market. It makes sense that they'd compete.

stcredzero 9y ago

I suspect that this should really be thought of as, "The biggest buying opportunity, ever!" in the guitar market.

jasode 9y ago
A lot of people are predicting an "ebay guitar apocalypse" as the mass effect of guitar owners start passing away. Because "nobody plays them anymore", the inheritors of dad's property will just put the guitar collection on ebay or donate them. Your dad's fancy Paul Reed Smith guitar that cost $3000 will only be worth a fraction of that when a million other used PRS guitars flood the market. It's an interesting prediction.
- elihu 9y ago
  I think that eBay is already affecting price in a different way: buyers and sellers tend to use eBay price to figure out what a guitar is worth before buying and selling in person. Since used guitars are a risky purchase (there could be a lot of things wrong that don't show up in pictures), the eBay price is artificially depressed. However, since the eBay price is seen as the "fair market price", it deflates the price everywhere. This could go the other way, as well: if sellers refuse to sell a certain kind of guitar on eBay, the price could become inflated.
- stcredzero 9y ago
  Because "nobody plays them anymore", the inheritors of dad's property will just put the guitar collection on ebay or donate them. You already have this in instrument markets for traditional music. Trad musicians are minorities in the general culture, but their market demand for once-mainstream mass produced instruments of yesteryear can still support prices. (Paolo Soprani B,C button accordion, anyone?) Sure, you still have the occasional find, where someone sells something for 1/10th the price they could have gotten out of ignorance. I wonder if everyone is going to be satisfied with making music on a laptop? I also wonder if playing a guitar is ever going to stop getting people laid? If you have both of these conditions, then guitars might go the way of the Flageolett. Historically, "outdated" instruments flooding markets at bargain prices have tended to give rise to new musical opportunities in underprivileged communities. Occasionally, they give rise to new genres.

iamcasen 9y ago

As a life-long guitarist, and skeptic of capitalism, I have an anecdote: I own a few high-quality guitars. They have served me well for many a decade, and they are still in perfect condition. Why buy any more guitars? Perhaps the total number of guitars in circulation is enough? Businesses seem to think that there should be infinite growth forever, but that seems ridiculous to me. I don't think capitalism has a good answer to this problem. Obviously the manufacturers wish for people to buy more and more guitars every year or they go out of business. How can we reward them for a job well done now that more aren't needed?

AdmiralAsshat 9y ago
That would be my question, too. People were puzzled when tablet sales came to a crawl, until they started to consider whether people stopped buying them because they were good enough and still worked. I mean realistically, how many guitars does one need? I'm an amateur bass player. I have a cheap-ass practice bass and, if I get some pocket change, I may buy a $1500 professional bass. I would think that should last me for the next ten years or so. If I become a professional musician, I might buy more, but for your average slob, that's really not tenable.
- wishinghand 9y ago
  My personal answer to "how many guitars do you need?" is basically one for each tuning that I use regularly. Unless it's simply changing one string from E to D, re-tuning a whole guitar is a pain in the ass and just being able to swap guitars is a lot nicer. I have one for standard tuning, one tuned like a cello, and one in open D-minor. I do admit if you're playing a bass guitar this rule isn't as applicable.
  - hinkley 9y ago
    My dad loves to tell a story about a Q&A session with Norm Abram of PBS [Edit: This Old House, New Yankee Workshop] fame, which your answer reminds me of. Why does Norm own an entire drawer full of routers? Well, he used to ask himself the same question. All these companies kept giving him free tools as a promotion. Especially routers. He had dozens of them. WTF do I need all these routers for? It occurred to him that if at the start of a project you put a bit into a router and don't touch it until the end of the project, all of your routed edges will match exactly. Even if you screw up and have to redo a piece. So he kept enough routers to do that. He still gets teased about it by his coworkers though.

claudiulodro 9y ago

Reverb.com was #18 on the Inc. 5000 this year, so there is definitely still potential in selling musical instruments. Guitar is more niche than it used to be, though. The rock stars these days are rappers and DJs and they don't play guitar. You have to diversify your offerings (which I think the success of Reverb.com shows)

micaksica 9y ago
> The rock stars these days are rappers and DJs and they don't play guitar. And nearly every kid can afford a shitty chinese USB->MIDI controller and a cracked version of Live/Logic/FL Studio. The DAW and a controller is the weapon of choice for today's pop music industry. The fact that guitar is dying as "mainstream" shouldn't come as much of a surprise.
- ams6110 9y ago
  We just need to wait a generation. Then digitally generated pop will be seen as"mom and dad's music" and real instruments will be novel and interesting.

bherms 9y ago

As a lifetime guitar player and owner of way too many, I think what I've seen (and keep in mind this is only anecdotal) is that boutique guitar makers are making a big comeback while traditional mass producers are seeing less interest. If I'm going to spend $2500-7500 on a top of the line guitar (that is often an art piece as well) I'd rather work with a craft builder and get something unique to my specs versus a mass produced Fender strat or Gibson Les Paul.

levicole 9y ago
Bingo! I'd say it's similar to the craft beer movement.
- bherms 9y ago
  Exactly... I think my generation specifically (Gen Y) is 1) starting to come into having disposable income (hitting our 30's mostly), 2) skeptical of traditional marketing, big corporations (to some extent), etc, 3) learning to value craftsmen/women and quality goods over brand names. It's an interesting shift to watch.
  - cr0sh 9y ago
    I know you can't trust me because I'm just another stranger on the internet, but I worked for Fender briefly in their marketing department a few years back (as a web developer). I can unequivocally say that they still care about valuing craftsmanship of their products. It may not be to the level of an individual craftsperson constructing a one-off instrument, but it is there. At least, that's what I perceived while I was there. But take my words for whatever they're worth; I don't play guitar, nor did I take advantage of learning while I was there (part of me regrets not doing so, as the employee discounts were generous, but I still couldn't justify another potentially expensive hobby).
    - bherms 9y ago
      I definitely believe you. Both Gibson and Fender are awesome companies and do make great instruments with amazing quality control. They're as American as apple pie as well... I have zero hate for either brand, but personally for my money, if I'm spending big, I'd go for something really unique.. For example, I'd really love a Jersey Girl or a Robert de la Garza: http://jerseygirlhg.com/composition/branches/spot/images/02.jpg http://jerseygirlhg.com/composition/branches/spot/images/02.... https://static.wixstatic.com/media/2b245d_55366c7247ed436480fe8aa258e54dca~mv2.jpg/v1/fill/w_336,h_420,q_85,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01/2b245d_55366c7247ed436480fe8aa258e54dca~mv2.jpg https://static.wixstatic.com/media/2b245d_55366c7247ed436480... Those will set you back roughly $6000 each though :( http://jerseygirlhg.com/composition http://jerseygirlhg.com/composition

sssilver 9y ago

Relevant discussion -- https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14627673 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14627673

mgdo 9y ago

Some interesting and related Google Trends: - "Learn Guitar": https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=learn%20guitar https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=learn%20... - "Play Guitar": https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=play%20guitar https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=play%20g... - "Guitar vs Piano": https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=guitar,piano https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=guitar,p...

deleted 9y ago
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exabrial 9y ago

Did you know you can buy a $350 "Gibson Les Paul" that says "made in the USA" on AliExpress? The guitar in question is CNC cut and then hand assembled. I may speak from experience when I say the item is very high quality and is a pretty danged good guitar. The point here being that it's an industry what are the American players have not modernized their manufacturing process... We live in an amazing age where you can own an extraordinary instrument for very little money.

synthmeat 9y ago
Link? [1] gives me no results for that price range and search keywords. [1] https://www.aliexpress.com/wholesale?minPrice=300&maxPrice=400&isBigSale=n&isFreeShip=n&isNew=n&isFavorite=n&isMobileExclusive=n&isLocalReturn=n&shipCountry=HR&shipFromCountry=&shipCompanies=&SearchText=gibson+les+paul&CatId=0&g=y&initiative_id=SB_20171117145736&needQuery=y https://www.aliexpress.com/wholesale?minPrice=300&maxPrice=4...
- bherms 9y ago
  Didn't see any marketing themselves as Gibsons, but here's a "Gretsch" White Falcon in that range: https://www.aliexpress.com/item/Hot-selling-white-Gretsch-falcon-jazz-guitar-semi-hollow-boby-electric-guitar-with-bigsby/32790108832.html?spm=2114.search0104.3.136.01pKbC&ws_ab_test=searchweb0_0,searchweb201602_2_10152_10065_10151_10344_10068_10130_10345_10324_10342_10547_10325_10343_10546_10340_10341_10548_10545_10541_10562_10084_10083_10307_5680011_10178_10060_10155_10154_10539_10312_10059_10313_10314_10534_10533_100031_10103_10073_10594_10557_10558_10596_10595_10142_10107,searchweb201603_25,ppcSwitch_2&btsid=f3b80840-5bbc-4506-9b4a-ae0ab1dd7406&algo_expid=8d9d3bf4-8c33-4f11-8496-edd81b8b3334-17&algo_pvid=8d9d3bf4-8c33-4f11-8496-edd81b8b3334&rmStoreLevelAB=0 https://www.aliexpress.com/item/Hot-selling-white-Gretsch-fa...

chiefalchemist 9y ago

Music tastes run in cycles. If vinyl can make a comeback so might guitars. That said, anecdotally, kids today don't do adversity; they want instant gratification. Learning to play guitar takes time, lots of it. In the current climate a comeback seems pretty unlikely.

eroccatlun 9y ago
Oddly, there are some amazing young guitarists... though obviously, anyone who is already great has likely been at it for 10+ years, so there may be a significant shortage 10 years from now.
surrey-fringe 9y ago
Yeah, I always associated your generation's music with hard work and discipline. Jimmy Hendrix and The Who and the like.
- chiefalchemist 9y ago
  My era was more The Clash, Joy Division, and the like :)
mandelbrotwurst 9y ago
Eh, get off my lawn with your generalizations about "kids today" =/ Maybe at least provide one of your anecdotes?
- chiefalchemist 9y ago
  How about I get off your cloud? ;)
stcredzero 9y ago
That said, anecdotally, kids today don't do adversity; they want instant gratification My experience: In the 1990's, a kid given the video game "weapons station of a starship" probably starts pressing controls and blowing stuff up. In 2014, a kid presented with the video game "weapons station of a starship" freezes and meekly waits for instruction from an adult.

jamestimmins 9y ago

Brings to mind the quote "Guitar groups are on their way out, Mr Epstein." This was a music exec telling The Beatles' manager why he wouldn't sign them.

mbroncano 9y ago

Everything old is new again. I wasn't even a teenager when everybody was convinced the guitar bands were gone for good. As mentioned somewhere else in the thread, back in the sixties the same history. I'm been playing for almost 30 years, and what I've seen in the last few ones is, I can buy a guitar for 300 bucks that beats anything that I owned as a teenager for that same price. And I'm not even touching the amp market, it's crazy what the same money can buy in terms of quality and flexibility. I'm hesitant about this, but I'm half sure this deflactionaty process is going to actually popularize playing the guitar in the middle term.

albutr 9y ago

There's a surprising amount of cork-sniffing that goes on in the guitar world, and I think that plays a role in slowing down the decline of the guitar market. Just try searching for advice on what guitar to buy, and you'll be inundated with people claiming that tiny little differences (e.g. rosewood vs maple fretboards or lacquer vs poly finishes on an electric) have huge effects on the overall sounds, which is clearly not true. The idea that there's always something better to buy drives some people to keep purchasing. I'm sure there's some degree of this with other instruments, but guitar seems to be particularly bad.

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rumblestrut 9y ago

I would love to buy a new guitar. I had a PRS in the 90’s and loved it. I never should have sold it. A lot of guitars (PRS included) are now made cheaply overseas. They’re decent, but to me they’re still not good enough. I think they’re crap. It’s a shame the industry has fallen, but the industry did this to itself. But rest assured, guitar rock will eventually make a comeback. Music trends in waves. Will the guitar industry be ready when it does?

MarceloBirnbach 9y ago

at Bandhub (http://bandhub.com http://bandhub.com) we try to solve a fundamental problem most recreational musicians have... we give them a community of like-minded people who care about their music, and the tools to make music together online. Musicians who get engaged in Bandhub obtain meaningful social experiences. We believe this market needs to be disrupted in a similar way to what happened with online social gaming

rapjr9 9y ago

Maybe guitar makers are not innovating? Other stringed instruments have basically remained the same for centuries, but electric guitars were born out of modifications to standard guitars. Hendrix was a guitar hacker. Most of the electric guitars on the market today are no different than those sold 30 years ago. There are a few new ideas (midi accessories, built in effects, the Moog guitar, more than 6 strings, Steinberger's, cryogenically treated strings, better tremolo's, guitar synths) but few people are into hacking guitars any more. Your mom and dad may play electric guitar, it isn't radical or rebellious. And few are trying to invent new styles of playing either. So the sound and use of guitars has remained fairly static for a long time (except for Fred Frith!). Perhaps this explains the recent interest in Eurorack synthesizers? A return to creating fundamentally new sounds by tinkering with the basic elements of sound. It's kind of like the smartphone market, the manufacturers have tried all the easy improvements (bigger screens, faster CPU's, better GPU's, thin bodies) but haven't tried the more difficult things (unusual sensors, regional peer-2-peer communication, serious FDA approved medical sensing/apps, light based communication, UWB links into IoT networks, etc.) Though AI chips may result in some significant new ideas. Maybe deep learning AI chips for guitars would rev the market? You teach your guitar some notes/chords and then it can generate different arrangements/timings/bends for you that actually sound interesting? Maybe not since deep learning can only mimic what it learns.