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I think your price estimate for the battery isn't too far off. If you scoll down on the page they estimate annual fuel savings to be $200,000. They then mention

I think your price estimate for the battery isn't too far off. If you scoll down on the page they estimate annual fuel savings to be $200,000. They then mention a two year payback period. This seems to imply a sticker price of around $400K.

SigmundA 9y ago
I am trying to figure out how they get 2 year payback. "On a 100-mile route, the Tesla Semi will average $1.26 per mile when operating costs are factored in to $1.51 for diesel trucks." That 25 cents a mile savings, average trucker does 45,000 miles a year, 100,000 on the top end for long haul. Even at 100k a year that's an 8 year payback right?
- drusepth 9y ago
  Based on the "With fewer systems to maintain..." precursor to that factoid, I imagine they're also factoring in repairs and maintenance. In the reveal event, Musk said e.g. you'd never have to replace brake pads, a drive train, the windshield, etc. Also, I'm totally out of my element here (family does trucking but I don't) but 45K miles/year seems like a super low estimate for someone who drives full time. Taking a look at this thread [1], it seems unreliable per month, but people seem to be talking about doing 3K/week or 10-12K/month like it's nothing (as long as your employers have the hours to give). http://www.truckingtruth.com/truckers-forum/Topic-1229/Page-1/how-many-miles-do-truck-drivers-get-per-week http://www.truckingtruth.com/truckers-forum/Topic-1229/Page-...
  - SigmundA 9y ago
    I assumed their cost per mile included maintenance which is pretty standard to do. To do 2 year payback would be 400k miles a year, which is impossible without nearly 24/7 driving, which could be possible with automation but unlikely they are figuring that. Those truckers you linked are saying 10,000 a month is realistic without pushing it for long haul OTR so that 120k a year still at least 7 year payback.
    - Robotbeat 9y ago
      The TCO includes the cost of the lease, so it already includes payback of the upfront cost. If you're not leasing it, your cost per mile without considering upfront cost is much better than even the TCO calculation shows, so you can "payback" relatively quickly. If you lease it, you can take advantage of the lower cost of operations immediately.
- nkoren 9y ago
  No, the "payback period" isn't the time to pay off the total cost of the vehicle. It's the time to pay off the difference between the Tesla and the competition. Here's how you do the calculation: - Diesel semi: $125k - Tesla semi: $200k ($75k more expensive) - Miles driven per year: 150,000 (~8 hours per day at 50mph. Rotating shifts mean these trucks don't take weekends.) - Net savings per mile: $0.25 - Savings per year: $0.25 * 150,000 = $37,500 - Break-even vs. cost of diesel: $75,000 / $37,500 = 2 years So after two years you have more money than if you'd bought a diesel semi. That's what it means.
  - SigmundA 9y ago
    The 500 mile version is 250k which is what I was looking at for long haul. So if your doing short haul with the 300 mile range version and rotating shifts you can get 2 year payback, ok.

SigmundA 9y ago

I am trying to figure out how they get 2 year payback. "On a 100-mile route, the Tesla Semi will average $1.26 per mile when operating costs are factored in to $1.51 for diesel trucks." That 25 cents a mile savings, average trucker does 45,000 miles a year, 100,000 on the top end for long haul. Even at 100k a year that's an 8 year payback right?

drusepth 9y ago
Based on the "With fewer systems to maintain..." precursor to that factoid, I imagine they're also factoring in repairs and maintenance. In the reveal event, Musk said e.g. you'd never have to replace brake pads, a drive train, the windshield, etc. Also, I'm totally out of my element here (family does trucking but I don't) but 45K miles/year seems like a super low estimate for someone who drives full time. Taking a look at this thread [1], it seems unreliable per month, but people seem to be talking about doing 3K/week or 10-12K/month like it's nothing (as long as your employers have the hours to give). http://www.truckingtruth.com/truckers-forum/Topic-1229/Page-1/how-many-miles-do-truck-drivers-get-per-week http://www.truckingtruth.com/truckers-forum/Topic-1229/Page-...
- SigmundA 9y ago
  I assumed their cost per mile included maintenance which is pretty standard to do. To do 2 year payback would be 400k miles a year, which is impossible without nearly 24/7 driving, which could be possible with automation but unlikely they are figuring that. Those truckers you linked are saying 10,000 a month is realistic without pushing it for long haul OTR so that 120k a year still at least 7 year payback.
  - Robotbeat 9y ago
    The TCO includes the cost of the lease, so it already includes payback of the upfront cost. If you're not leasing it, your cost per mile without considering upfront cost is much better than even the TCO calculation shows, so you can "payback" relatively quickly. If you lease it, you can take advantage of the lower cost of operations immediately.
nkoren 9y ago
No, the "payback period" isn't the time to pay off the total cost of the vehicle. It's the time to pay off the difference between the Tesla and the competition. Here's how you do the calculation: - Diesel semi: $125k - Tesla semi: $200k ($75k more expensive) - Miles driven per year: 150,000 (~8 hours per day at 50mph. Rotating shifts mean these trucks don't take weekends.) - Net savings per mile: $0.25 - Savings per year: $0.25 * 150,000 = $37,500 - Break-even vs. cost of diesel: $75,000 / $37,500 = 2 years So after two years you have more money than if you'd bought a diesel semi. That's what it means.
- SigmundA 9y ago
  The 500 mile version is 250k which is what I was looking at for long haul. So if your doing short haul with the 300 mile range version and rotating shifts you can get 2 year payback, ok.