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Anyone else find it odd they don't talk about the battery? 500 miles of range at 2kwh a mile is a 1000kwh battery which is 10 model S batteries. Model S batte

Anyone else find it odd they don't talk about the battery? 500 miles of range at 2kwh a mile is a 1000kwh battery which is 10 model S batteries. Model S battery weighs 1,200 lbs lets assume they somehow improved on that by 20-30% so this is a 10,000 lb battery. Not sure how much the motors weigh, the Tesla motor and inverter are about 350lbs so lets say another 1000lbs. A Diesel engine, transmission and fuel for 500 miles is about 5,000 lbs. So I guess they made up 6,000 lbs in lightwieght materials? Or does it have less carry capacity since the trucks can't weigh more than 80k total? Then there is the cost of the battery. Tesla is currently saying thier cost are below $190/kwh. At $180 that battery is $180,000 dollars cost! They must be counting on the Gigafactory getting it down to $100 kwh, still $100k cost just for the battery. The battery cost is as much as a new Semi's price. The Megacharger is 400 miles in 30 minutes, that would be a 1.6 megawatt charger. They have to be built out across the country. I am pretty impressed, I honestly didn't think they would do a megawatt battery. 500 miles is what you need minimum for "long haul" or a solid days driving even though most diesel semis have 1000 mile+ ranges. Just not sure how the economics work out, but I hope it does.

deleted 9y ago
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bognition 9y ago
I think your price estimate for the battery isn't too far off. If you scoll down on the page they estimate annual fuel savings to be $200,000. They then mention a two year payback period. This seems to imply a sticker price of around $400K.
- SigmundA 9y ago
  I am trying to figure out how they get 2 year payback. "On a 100-mile route, the Tesla Semi will average $1.26 per mile when operating costs are factored in to $1.51 for diesel trucks." That 25 cents a mile savings, average trucker does 45,000 miles a year, 100,000 on the top end for long haul. Even at 100k a year that's an 8 year payback right?
  - drusepth 9y ago
    Based on the "With fewer systems to maintain..." precursor to that factoid, I imagine they're also factoring in repairs and maintenance. In the reveal event, Musk said e.g. you'd never have to replace brake pads, a drive train, the windshield, etc. Also, I'm totally out of my element here (family does trucking but I don't) but 45K miles/year seems like a super low estimate for someone who drives full time. Taking a look at this thread [1], it seems unreliable per month, but people seem to be talking about doing 3K/week or 10-12K/month like it's nothing (as long as your employers have the hours to give). http://www.truckingtruth.com/truckers-forum/Topic-1229/Page-1/how-many-miles-do-truck-drivers-get-per-week http://www.truckingtruth.com/truckers-forum/Topic-1229/Page-...
    - SigmundA 9y ago
      I assumed their cost per mile included maintenance which is pretty standard to do. To do 2 year payback would be 400k miles a year, which is impossible without nearly 24/7 driving, which could be possible with automation but unlikely they are figuring that. Those truckers you linked are saying 10,000 a month is realistic without pushing it for long haul OTR so that 120k a year still at least 7 year payback.
      - Robotbeat 9y ago
        The TCO includes the cost of the lease, so it already includes payback of the upfront cost. If you're not leasing it, your cost per mile without considering upfront cost is much better than even the TCO calculation shows, so you can "payback" relatively quickly. If you lease it, you can take advantage of the lower cost of operations immediately.
  - nkoren 9y ago
    No, the "payback period" isn't the time to pay off the total cost of the vehicle. It's the time to pay off the difference between the Tesla and the competition. Here's how you do the calculation: - Diesel semi: $125k - Tesla semi: $200k ($75k more expensive) - Miles driven per year: 150,000 (~8 hours per day at 50mph. Rotating shifts mean these trucks don't take weekends.) - Net savings per mile: $0.25 - Savings per year: $0.25 * 150,000 = $37,500 - Break-even vs. cost of diesel: $75,000 / $37,500 = 2 years So after two years you have more money than if you'd bought a diesel semi. That's what it means.
victor106 9y ago
Not sure how realistic the whole Tesla releases are. They are definitely inspirational. One thing we know for sure is they have a great prototyping/photoshop/After effects team
gok 9y ago
> A Diesel engine, transmission and fuel for 500 miles is about 5,000 lbs. You often end up carrying more fuel than you need so you can buy it in cheaper places. And then there’s the whole art of timing your fuel stops around the weigh stations... > still $100k cost just for the battery. The battery cost is as much as a new Semi's price. That’s not that crazy if they can actually deliver on the operating cost savings they’re claiming. Big if though.
- SigmundA 9y ago
  At 7 lbs a gallon for diesel most semis can carry 200 gallons so add an extra 1000lbs if you like, the Tesla still has to make up 5000 lbs while having 1/3rd the range. Timing stops for megachargers will be a whole lot more difficult than truck stops until they are as ubiquitous. If you have to use a plain old supercharger your talking 8-10 hours for a charge, don't even bother with a normal plug of any kind.
  - gok 9y ago
    Yeah no doubt, there are a ton of unanswered questions here. If they can't retrofit their existing chargers to "mega" status that would pretty severely limit the usefulness of this product.
  - jackmott 9y ago
    It would be a slow rollout anyway. First customers would be people with ~200 mile routes, just charge at home base. Then people with ~500 mile routes that can charge at both ends. grow from there.
    - alistairSH 9y ago
      It looks like the first big buyer is using them for those short-haul trips. Does the Semi have a sleeper cab? If not, it won't be used on long-haul routes regardless of battery.
      - gpm 9y ago
jsight 9y ago
I have been wanting to know this as well. With both the roadster and the truck, the battery seems to be quite a bit more advanced than what we have seen previously. The car is smaller than a model 3 but has a battery that is more than twice the capacity of what they said was possible before. It will be fascinating to find out what is actually behind these vehicles. On a pure specs basis, it sounds incredible.
ZeroGravitas 9y ago
If you take the Model S and scale it up then people have said the battery is half the cost of the car, and therefore the battery alone is roughly the cost of a normal car. I don't think it would be suprising if the same is true for the semi. There's at least one rural delivery man who bought a Tesla Model S and paid for it by using the mileage payments he gets for his job. So as long as your route fits, the same kind of high up front cost being amortised over time applies. The more miles you drive the better the economics works due to lower fuel/maintenance costs. Non-Tesla companies are making pretty much the same pitch in regards to battery busses, again targetting fleet managers who have the spreadsheets in place already to plan and manage this kind of expenditure.
- SigmundA 9y ago
  Urban buses are very different and a more obvious target. Stop and go slower avg speed regular short routes with a home base to charge. Much smaller batteries and taking advantage of regenerative braking. It is an obvious use case for batteries right now.
  - sebleon 9y ago
    How effective is regenerative breaking?
    - cptskippy 9y ago
      Oddly good. My commute is ~25 miles one way. In my Leaf, going 65+ mph, I usually burn 25-35 miles off the charge. If I'm in stop-and-go traffic half the way I usually burn 10-15 miles for the same trip. I've taken quite a few trips where I arrived at my destination with the same amount of battery as when I left. I've yet to arrive with more charge but maybe one day...
      - mikestew 9y ago
        That’s probably due more to the aerodynamic drag of doing >65mph than it is the regen braking in stop-and-go traffic. Mileage efficiency takes a big drop in our Leaf above 60mph. EDIT: as a side note, efficiency takes a big drop in your ICE vehicle, too, I just notice it more in the Leaf with its gee-whiz telemetry.
mtgx 9y ago
I'm guessing a battery pack of 2019 will weigh about 60-70% what the old battery pack of Model S weighted per kWh. See for instance Roadster's 200 kWh, which I'm pretty sure is not twice as heavy as that of the Model S.
throwahey 9y ago
Diesel trucks with sleepers are not cheap, brand new they cost upwards of $150,000. If Tesla's price point is $250-300k I think it would be fair.
pgt 9y ago
What about the Supercharger network? Fewer highways make it logistically easier to plan for well-positioned charging stations so they can produce smaller batteries that have to be charged more frequently. And the Semi could always hook on a battery trailer for longer hauls.
cptskippy 9y ago
I doubt this semi is intended for long-haul trucking. The range however is very tempting for short-haul operations like JIT hubs.
s0rce 9y ago
How do you deliver 1.6 MW, is the plan the same voltage as the supercharger (480V) or some HV system?
013a 9y ago
Your estimations are probably very far off. The Roadster was announced with a 200kwh battery, which is twice the capacity of the best Model S. Yet the Roadster is much smaller, and the 0-60/quarter mile times indicate that it is much lighter. So, we can conclude that Tesla is accounting for some real technology optimization in their batteries over the next 4 years, which I'm sure the Semi will see as well.
- SigmundA 9y ago
  The Roadster is probably all battery, no reason to think its not 2000 lbs of battery and 1000-1500 lbs of car. Is there anything to indicate lithium batteries will somehow get 60-70% lighter in 2 years?

deleted 9y ago

[deleted]

bognition 9y ago

I think your price estimate for the battery isn't too far off. If you scoll down on the page they estimate annual fuel savings to be $200,000. They then mention a two year payback period. This seems to imply a sticker price of around $400K.

SigmundA 9y ago
I am trying to figure out how they get 2 year payback. "On a 100-mile route, the Tesla Semi will average $1.26 per mile when operating costs are factored in to $1.51 for diesel trucks." That 25 cents a mile savings, average trucker does 45,000 miles a year, 100,000 on the top end for long haul. Even at 100k a year that's an 8 year payback right?
- drusepth 9y ago
  Based on the "With fewer systems to maintain..." precursor to that factoid, I imagine they're also factoring in repairs and maintenance. In the reveal event, Musk said e.g. you'd never have to replace brake pads, a drive train, the windshield, etc. Also, I'm totally out of my element here (family does trucking but I don't) but 45K miles/year seems like a super low estimate for someone who drives full time. Taking a look at this thread [1], it seems unreliable per month, but people seem to be talking about doing 3K/week or 10-12K/month like it's nothing (as long as your employers have the hours to give). http://www.truckingtruth.com/truckers-forum/Topic-1229/Page-1/how-many-miles-do-truck-drivers-get-per-week http://www.truckingtruth.com/truckers-forum/Topic-1229/Page-...
  - SigmundA 9y ago
    I assumed their cost per mile included maintenance which is pretty standard to do. To do 2 year payback would be 400k miles a year, which is impossible without nearly 24/7 driving, which could be possible with automation but unlikely they are figuring that. Those truckers you linked are saying 10,000 a month is realistic without pushing it for long haul OTR so that 120k a year still at least 7 year payback.
    - Robotbeat 9y ago
      The TCO includes the cost of the lease, so it already includes payback of the upfront cost. If you're not leasing it, your cost per mile without considering upfront cost is much better than even the TCO calculation shows, so you can "payback" relatively quickly. If you lease it, you can take advantage of the lower cost of operations immediately.
- nkoren 9y ago
  No, the "payback period" isn't the time to pay off the total cost of the vehicle. It's the time to pay off the difference between the Tesla and the competition. Here's how you do the calculation: - Diesel semi: $125k - Tesla semi: $200k ($75k more expensive) - Miles driven per year: 150,000 (~8 hours per day at 50mph. Rotating shifts mean these trucks don't take weekends.) - Net savings per mile: $0.25 - Savings per year: $0.25 * 150,000 = $37,500 - Break-even vs. cost of diesel: $75,000 / $37,500 = 2 years So after two years you have more money than if you'd bought a diesel semi. That's what it means.

victor106 9y ago

Not sure how realistic the whole Tesla releases are. They are definitely inspirational. One thing we know for sure is they have a great prototyping/photoshop/After effects team

gok 9y ago

> A Diesel engine, transmission and fuel for 500 miles is about 5,000 lbs. You often end up carrying more fuel than you need so you can buy it in cheaper places. And then there’s the whole art of timing your fuel stops around the weigh stations... > still $100k cost just for the battery. The battery cost is as much as a new Semi's price. That’s not that crazy if they can actually deliver on the operating cost savings they’re claiming. Big if though.

SigmundA 9y ago
At 7 lbs a gallon for diesel most semis can carry 200 gallons so add an extra 1000lbs if you like, the Tesla still has to make up 5000 lbs while having 1/3rd the range. Timing stops for megachargers will be a whole lot more difficult than truck stops until they are as ubiquitous. If you have to use a plain old supercharger your talking 8-10 hours for a charge, don't even bother with a normal plug of any kind.
- gok 9y ago
  Yeah no doubt, there are a ton of unanswered questions here. If they can't retrofit their existing chargers to "mega" status that would pretty severely limit the usefulness of this product.
- jackmott 9y ago
  It would be a slow rollout anyway. First customers would be people with ~200 mile routes, just charge at home base. Then people with ~500 mile routes that can charge at both ends. grow from there.
  - alistairSH 9y ago
    It looks like the first big buyer is using them for those short-haul trips. Does the Semi have a sleeper cab? If not, it won't be used on long-haul routes regardless of battery.
    - gpm 9y ago

jsight 9y ago

I have been wanting to know this as well. With both the roadster and the truck, the battery seems to be quite a bit more advanced than what we have seen previously. The car is smaller than a model 3 but has a battery that is more than twice the capacity of what they said was possible before. It will be fascinating to find out what is actually behind these vehicles. On a pure specs basis, it sounds incredible.

ZeroGravitas 9y ago

If you take the Model S and scale it up then people have said the battery is half the cost of the car, and therefore the battery alone is roughly the cost of a normal car. I don't think it would be suprising if the same is true for the semi. There's at least one rural delivery man who bought a Tesla Model S and paid for it by using the mileage payments he gets for his job. So as long as your route fits, the same kind of high up front cost being amortised over time applies. The more miles you drive the better the economics works due to lower fuel/maintenance costs. Non-Tesla companies are making pretty much the same pitch in regards to battery busses, again targetting fleet managers who have the spreadsheets in place already to plan and manage this kind of expenditure.

SigmundA 9y ago
Urban buses are very different and a more obvious target. Stop and go slower avg speed regular short routes with a home base to charge. Much smaller batteries and taking advantage of regenerative braking. It is an obvious use case for batteries right now.
- sebleon 9y ago
  How effective is regenerative breaking?
  - cptskippy 9y ago
    Oddly good. My commute is ~25 miles one way. In my Leaf, going 65+ mph, I usually burn 25-35 miles off the charge. If I'm in stop-and-go traffic half the way I usually burn 10-15 miles for the same trip. I've taken quite a few trips where I arrived at my destination with the same amount of battery as when I left. I've yet to arrive with more charge but maybe one day...
    - mikestew 9y ago
      That’s probably due more to the aerodynamic drag of doing >65mph than it is the regen braking in stop-and-go traffic. Mileage efficiency takes a big drop in our Leaf above 60mph. EDIT: as a side note, efficiency takes a big drop in your ICE vehicle, too, I just notice it more in the Leaf with its gee-whiz telemetry.

mtgx 9y ago

I'm guessing a battery pack of 2019 will weigh about 60-70% what the old battery pack of Model S weighted per kWh. See for instance Roadster's 200 kWh, which I'm pretty sure is not twice as heavy as that of the Model S.

throwahey 9y ago

Diesel trucks with sleepers are not cheap, brand new they cost upwards of $150,000. If Tesla's price point is $250-300k I think it would be fair.

pgt 9y ago

What about the Supercharger network? Fewer highways make it logistically easier to plan for well-positioned charging stations so they can produce smaller batteries that have to be charged more frequently. And the Semi could always hook on a battery trailer for longer hauls.

cptskippy 9y ago

I doubt this semi is intended for long-haul trucking. The range however is very tempting for short-haul operations like JIT hubs.

s0rce 9y ago

How do you deliver 1.6 MW, is the plan the same voltage as the supercharger (480V) or some HV system?

013a 9y ago

Your estimations are probably very far off. The Roadster was announced with a 200kwh battery, which is twice the capacity of the best Model S. Yet the Roadster is much smaller, and the 0-60/quarter mile times indicate that it is much lighter. So, we can conclude that Tesla is accounting for some real technology optimization in their batteries over the next 4 years, which I'm sure the Semi will see as well.

SigmundA 9y ago
The Roadster is probably all battery, no reason to think its not 2000 lbs of battery and 1000-1500 lbs of car. Is there anything to indicate lithium batteries will somehow get 60-70% lighter in 2 years?