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Am I the only one who's worried that Tesla is really starting to bite off more than they can chew? Right now their finances are a mess, they are publicly strugg
by wintermute2001 9y ago
Am I the only one who's worried that Tesla is really starting to bite off more than they can chew? Right now their finances are a mess, they are publicly struggling to produce their most important car ever, their CEO is spending time figuring out how to dig holes underneath LA...and now they're announcing a semi truck and a roaster in the same day? Don't get me wrong, Teslas are incredible cars. But this seems like an overreach considering they are struggling to figure out how to meet demand on the Model 3. It's also insane to announce this car with what boils down to a bunch of CGI! These are some very bold announcements and there isn't much explanation for how these goals will be met. I hope this all turns out as advertised, but I'm very skeptical.
- tdiggity 9y agoFounder series limited to 1000 requires full deposit, that's $250 mil Base model requires $45k deposit. Not sure what semi requirements are. Even if they are biting off more than they can chew, they can gauge reaction and devote more/less to this. I'm thinking that these ventures give their engineers a space to get really creative and push the envelope. And, these advancements make their way into the mainstream models.
- aerophilic 9y agoI think that may be the core point of why they are doing this. They are in a cash crunch, if they get enough deposits it can certainly help their bottom line... without dilution.
- doikor 9y agoDeveloping a car like to a car to that state (drivable at the event) will have taken 2 or 3 years already so I doubt it originally started as a fix for cash flow.
- aerophilic 9y agoAgreed, but I would be surprised if that didn’t play into the math. One of Elon’s greatest strengths is to think ahead strategically and position himself for maximum upside towards his goals. So yes, I am sure he didn’t think he would need this to help with Model 3, but I am sure he knew he would need more cash on hand to make another “big bet”. Unfortunately it looks like this cash will go to current projects rather than a brand new initiative. Unless of course this was to help with Tesla Semi...
- rottyguy 9y agoWhat's even more amazing is that F or GM couldn't possibly do this. First mover advantage plus the allure of someone like Musk is what is needed. I know many bash him for spreading himself too thin among all his other ambitions but it gives him good will capital (which can translate to economic capital) when needed.
- fma 9y agoIf they need more cash then they can just have another investor round. There's enough fan boys that would invest. I would prefer that Ford and GM not do this... I don't see how producing a $250,000 car will help the common folk, which is who Ford and GM serves. Tesla had first mover advantage with their Model 3 and now they are floundering. GM's Chevy Bolt is out producing and out selling the Model 3 despite first movers advantage and all the 'good will' Tesla generated... Despite people saying 'GM could never do this'. I also don't know why you would say Ford or GM couldn't do it when they produce vehicles that race in Nascar and have R&D for that sport. Ford and GM are mature companies and expected to actually make money, while Tesla is expected to make good will and headlines. I'll be more excited when Tesla meets their originally projected production numbers.
- fhood 9y agoDon't underestimate the importance of these flagship cars. They serve a purpose. Why do you think Ford has the GT? They are a test bed for new technologies and increase brand prestige.
- vermontdevil 9y agoFord does produce cars that are not for the "common folk". Same with Mercedes, BMW, etc.
- rottyguy 9y agoI'll note the original date for the 5k and 10k/week numbers were end of 2018 and 2020. Musk pushed it by 2yrs so "floundering" seems unfair here.
- saturdaysaint 9y ago
- gregornobis 9y ago$250mil sounds a lot - until you remember they currently burn through $400mil of cash in a month
- tdiggity 9y agooh please. they're putting money into R&D and into the ramp up. Your statement makes it sound like they're using the money to wipe their @$$es. No, they're putting the money to work. And if the analysts and shareholders didn't believe that, the stock would tank.
- gregornobis 9y agoVery true. Belief - not actual results - is what is behind Tesla's valuation.
- frogpelt 9y agoIs Tesla that different from Amazon 15 years ago? Net income was flat but the revenue kept going up.
- Danihan 9y agoThey also just laid off a ton of people, so maybe that burn rate is going to lower quite a bit.
- sf_rob 9y ago$400M a month would be equivalent to ~20k full time engineer's total compensation, so I doubt layoffs will put a serious dent in it.
- Danihan 9y agoGood point.
- greglindahl 9y ago
- ykl 9y ago> It's also insane to announce this car with what boils down to a bunch of CGI! They had multiple real Roadsters at the announcements. You can see a red one in the main event video, and there are pictures of a silver one on Twitter.
- wintermute2001 9y agoYeah, it's just so odd that their website has the ultra fake video to demonstrate the 1.9 second 0-60 time!
- bjl 9y agoThat's because the actual ones can't make that time.
- cpplinuxdude 9y agoTesla is already established in the business of luxury electric cars. It's the low cost ones that seem to be the challenge.
- TimTheTinker 9y agoThis isn’t CGI :-) https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidHodge/status/931391188065705984/video/1 https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidHodge/status/931391188065705...
- davidwhodge 9y agoI took this video. I assure you it is real
- shamaku 9y agoNo doubt, but sped up at the moment of acceleration.
- JungleGymSam 9y agoYour comment reveals that you don't know what you're talking about. Very fast cars are rare so their rate of acceleration looks strange to someone that's not used to it.
- ak39 9y agoWhat makes you say this?
- thechao 9y agoThe people around the car jerk a bit. Could be camera motion, scared spectators, altered video; I’m not an expert.
- lawrenceyan 9y agoI'm curious as to why you choose to believe that their was a conspiracy to release a sped up video rather than the fact that the car really is just that quick. Cognitive dissonance? Shorting Tesla stock? It's not like you're mentally deficient or anything so there has to be a logical reason in your mind as to why you ended up thinking this. I would be very keen to know what that is.
- an_account 9y agoThat’s exactly why they need this. They are running out of money. $250k reservations provide cash now and the promise of a semi might convince more investors to invest.
- dayaz36 9y agoDid you not watch the presentation? They're not going to start producing it for another 2 years.
- Ryudas 9y agoThey have planned this for years. The "new roadster" and even plaid has been announced for years. More than that, Production starts 3 YEARS from now. If they still have model 3 problems by then, I'll be surprised.
- dkhenry 9y agoYou have been reading too many finance blogs. Their finances are far from a mess, they are just not what finance people like to see. They have cash on hand and a roadmap to execute on. If they don't execute they will go out of business, and they will take my money as an investor with them. I'm OK with that and as long as they continue to have a path to profitability I am all on board. I want to see them burning money to get market share, especially as they do something new. The idea that companies must always operate within a specific set of financial metrics is why GE is going out of business
- PunchTornado 9y agoExactly. As a small investor in them I fully support them. Even if I lose all my money I know it went to cool research that has benefit the progress of science in a cool way.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- narvind 9y agoyou are a good person.
- zymhan 9y agoI mean, that's fine and dandy, but then you're really just donating your money to "science" and not investing it. Which goes back to the original claim that their finances are a mess.
- knuckles78 9y agoeither that or it was snorted from Amber Heards tits
- boznz 9y agoI have done the same with two fusion energy companies, almost zero chance of payback but always the slim chance for a breakthrough to save the world. Think of it as a lottery ticket for rich and middle income people. Tesla is a lottery ticket that will probably pay dividends many years down the line, and if not they have at least kickstarted a better future.
- lafar6502 9y agojust dont give them money upfront and maybe the reality will take care of the rest.
- indescions_2017 9y agoYes. It is only human to be worried. They lose money on every car they sell. And the losses are accelerating. If you bought $TSLA at $300. And are looking to hold on for dear life. The next 12-24 months is gut check time. But there is so much to be optimistic about! Uber or Lyft or Didi could place 100K size orders of Model 3s for their driverless fleets, with substantial support contracts, by 2019. Powerwalls may become standard components in emerging market power grids in the global sun belt. And envisioning charging stations as travel lounges or overnight rest stops is a stealth real estate and hospitality investment. Tesla is acting as if the Model 3 will change the game. My personal bias is that the analysts are neglecting the raw consumer demand for this brave new electrical world. And if that holds true, continuing to raise cash to finance their production via stock, debt or pre-orders shouldn't be the hard part. Especially if 12 month price targets in the $350-375 range hold ;)
- Symmetry 9y agoThey don't lose money on every car they sell. Because they have a lot of NRE and other capital expenses they start out deeply in the hole before they sell any cars. But each extra car they sell after that hole increases their profits by something like $20,000 so they're making a lot of money when they sell cars even if their net divided by the number of cars sold is negative.
- yalph 9y agoHold on its not cgi, its a real car.