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Science is a process, not a single event or fact. The fact that the nuclear winter research was inaccurate was exposed by the scientific process as much as it w
by InclinedPlane 9y ago
Science is a process, not a single event or fact. The fact that the nuclear winter research was inaccurate was exposed by the scientific process as much as it was put forward by it.
Additionally, the absence of nuclear winter does not imply that "nuclear war is quite survivable". Nuclear war is almost certainly survivable, with or without nuclear winter. The question is though: what survives? Even without nuclear winter, crop yields are going to plummet drastically immediately, due to the collapse of world trade, industry, and commerce. And that's a positive feedback loop due to population effects. Our current state of industry and agriculture results in nuclear war causing an initial death-toll followed by a delayed death toll as things settle into a drastically different economic/industrial/agricultural equilibrium. Or, to make things clearer: the sustainable population level of a post-nuclear war scenario is vastly lower than the initial surviving population. What happens after that is still, somewhat thankfully, an open question. The human race may survive, but how long it takes civilization to recover to the same level of technology is unknown. It might take years, decades, centuries, or millenia. Indeed it might never happen, for various reasons. Nuclear war is more than likely going to result in everyone currently alive never seeing this level of technological sophistication, affluence, comfort, etc. in their lifetimes.
- SapphireSun 9y agoThis is a very strong claim, and based on what I've read I do not believe it is accurate to say nuclear winter research was so off the mark as to be "inaccurate". Please see my comments further up the thread. Please cite the arguments you are basing this claim on. My understanding is that the major source of confusion was the headline of a 1990 NYT article that made it look like nuclear winter was wrong, but the actual contents were much more moderate. http://www.nytimes.com/1990/01/23/science/nuclear-winter-theorists-pull-back.html?pagewanted=all&mcubz=0 http://www.nytimes.com/1990/01/23/science/nuclear-winter-the...