"I'm inclined to think that someone who thinks about something full-time is statistically more likely to guess correctly about it than someone who doesn't." If

"I'm inclined to think that someone who thinks about something full-time is statistically more likely to guess correctly about it than someone who doesn't." If the system they're thinking about is a system defined by other people also thinking about it, and they're all trying to outsmart each other, and the system itself is too large and complex for any one mind to grasp, maybe not. And in fact, I've heard (no citation) that you'll as well on average throwing darts at stocks as hiring a stockbroker, and you'll save the fees. Which is why I'm inclined to invest in an index fund and forget about it.