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I don't really have any data from the 90s and I wasn't very old back then so I cannot really say anything about it. And stop putting words into my mouth. I wro

I don't really have any data from the 90s and I wasn't very old back then so I cannot really say anything about it. And stop putting words into my mouth. I wrote that I believe immigration is the main cause of the most extreme increases not the main cause of rising housing prices in general. The difference is that the number of people Sweden has recieved is so much larger 2013-2016 so basically every system we had failed and all municipalities was forced to buy apartments. If you have stable immigration that are predictable it's easy to plan ahead and adjust the society for it but when it comes like 160k people in one year to such a small country as Sweden everything fails. Of course this will have economic effects such as in the housing market.

pimmen 9y ago
Fair enough, I’ll stop putting words in your mouth. SiemperVernes supplied stats that showed that the correlation goes from weak to non-existant when you look at the past three decades, despite the fact that the early 90s was record years of immigration. You said the correlation was clear and that you think it’s the main cause of rising housing prices, why do you think that? Is it only because of news stories that the local governments had a hard time finding places to rent out? You don’t base it on data?
- staticelf 9y ago
  I would gladly base my thoughts on data but unfortunately when it comes to immigration the government doesn't really publish/store any data of any negative effects immigration could have. I base my thoughts on the data that is available (which isn't much) and I still think it's different from the 90s because of the much higher number of people that came to Sweden in the last years. Basically no systems worked as you surely know and the government had to abort the whole situation because it became unreasonable even for them. And to my knowledge, Sweden didn't let immigrants jump queues nor buy apartments for them and their wives in the 90s. For example regarding the lack of data, I am sure they know how many apartments they bought for immigrants but in order for me as a citizen to get that information I would probably have to request it from every single municipality which quickly becomes unreasonable. Just think what you would have to do in order to base the thoughts on data: I would have to request data from every municipality in the country regarding different factors that the immigration could have an effect on. Then I would probably take that data and compile it with other data that is basically impossible to get hold of and then have to compare it with the same data from the 90s. That is of course if every municipality even answers your request (they do not always do that, even if they must) and if they actually keep the records of the data. As with any topic that involves immigration in Sweden, statistics are simply not very often even recorded or stored.
  - eesmith 9y ago
    Even if you had this specific information, it wouldn't answer your question. It would mostly serve to re-enforce the beliefs you came in with, because you also need to look for other factors which might explain the housing increases. For example, in another part of this thread I quoted a news article as saying "Prices have also been pushed up since a law change in 2013, allowing private individuals to charge tenants based on their mortgage costs rather than comparable rent prices in the neighbourhood." How much of an effect has this had in the rents in 2014-2016? You appear to be young person, so you personally are likely in the same housing market at the refugees. This can make it seem particularly dire for you as most of the new housing being built is for a more expensive part of the market. So, why is the new housing built for a more expensive part of the market? Another factor which is harder to plan for and which affects the housing market is internal migration. Just like in the US, smaller towns and cities in Sweden are depopulating as people move to the bigger ones, where there is a stronger economy. Was that planned for, and how much of effect has that had on housing prices in the big cities? Furthermore, as https://www.thelocal.se/20170205/swedens-urban-rural-divide-growing https://www.thelocal.se/20170205/swedens-urban-rural-divide-... points out, "It is primarily young people leaving". This is again the population which is in the same housing market as most of the refugees. Finally, here's a quote from an article from 2009 titled "Sweden risks facing severe labour shortages" / "Over the next ten years, the number of native-born Swedes of working age will decline by 100,000. Without more immigrants, we will be unable to sustain our welfare standards, writes Olle Wästberg, head of the Swedish Institute." https://www.thelocal.se/20091222/24004 https://www.thelocal.se/20091222/24004 > Almost all Swedish regions have set population targets that emphasise growth. The Greater Gothenburg area wants to have a population of 1.5 million in just ten years’ time. Stockholm wants to have 600,000 more inhabitants over the next 20 years. Was enough housing built to meet the desired growth goals?
  - pimmen 9y ago
    But there is data of how many refugees entered Sweden in the 90s, it was roughly a hundred thousand a year then just like in the recent years. Did you read any of the links SiemperVernes linked to? You also say that you don't believe refugees could cut the line to public housing, did you check at all to find out if that was the case? Did you also cross check with SCB to find out how many new houses were built, since that statistics stretches well past the Million program more than 50 years ago? It even stretches back before WWII. https://www.scb.se/hitta-statistik/statistik-efter-amne/boende-byggande-och-bebyggelse/bostadsbyggande-och-ombyggnad/nybyggnad-av-bostader/pong/tabell-och-diagram/antal-fardigstallda-lagenheter-i-flerbostadshus-resp.-smahus/ https://www.scb.se/hitta-statistik/statistik-efter-amne/boen... Or is your personal belief based on your gut feeling? And, when you say that "they correlate well", what time period are you then looking at? And what data? Because immigration decreased in the mid 2000s while the housing prices increased. No offense, but it looks like your analytical method is "there's lots of newspaper articles about refugees these days, and lots of newspaper articles about rising housing prices, one of them must the main cause of the other". I might as well say "there's lots of articles about smartphones lately while the housing prices are increasing, maybe smartphones lets us live alone more effectively meaning that we take up more space when everyone gets their own apartment instead of a room mate".

pimmen 9y ago

Fair enough, I’ll stop putting words in your mouth. SiemperVernes supplied stats that showed that the correlation goes from weak to non-existant when you look at the past three decades, despite the fact that the early 90s was record years of immigration. You said the correlation was clear and that you think it’s the main cause of rising housing prices, why do you think that? Is it only because of news stories that the local governments had a hard time finding places to rent out? You don’t base it on data?

staticelf 9y ago
I would gladly base my thoughts on data but unfortunately when it comes to immigration the government doesn't really publish/store any data of any negative effects immigration could have. I base my thoughts on the data that is available (which isn't much) and I still think it's different from the 90s because of the much higher number of people that came to Sweden in the last years. Basically no systems worked as you surely know and the government had to abort the whole situation because it became unreasonable even for them. And to my knowledge, Sweden didn't let immigrants jump queues nor buy apartments for them and their wives in the 90s. For example regarding the lack of data, I am sure they know how many apartments they bought for immigrants but in order for me as a citizen to get that information I would probably have to request it from every single municipality which quickly becomes unreasonable. Just think what you would have to do in order to base the thoughts on data: I would have to request data from every municipality in the country regarding different factors that the immigration could have an effect on. Then I would probably take that data and compile it with other data that is basically impossible to get hold of and then have to compare it with the same data from the 90s. That is of course if every municipality even answers your request (they do not always do that, even if they must) and if they actually keep the records of the data. As with any topic that involves immigration in Sweden, statistics are simply not very often even recorded or stored.
- eesmith 9y ago
  Even if you had this specific information, it wouldn't answer your question. It would mostly serve to re-enforce the beliefs you came in with, because you also need to look for other factors which might explain the housing increases. For example, in another part of this thread I quoted a news article as saying "Prices have also been pushed up since a law change in 2013, allowing private individuals to charge tenants based on their mortgage costs rather than comparable rent prices in the neighbourhood." How much of an effect has this had in the rents in 2014-2016? You appear to be young person, so you personally are likely in the same housing market at the refugees. This can make it seem particularly dire for you as most of the new housing being built is for a more expensive part of the market. So, why is the new housing built for a more expensive part of the market? Another factor which is harder to plan for and which affects the housing market is internal migration. Just like in the US, smaller towns and cities in Sweden are depopulating as people move to the bigger ones, where there is a stronger economy. Was that planned for, and how much of effect has that had on housing prices in the big cities? Furthermore, as https://www.thelocal.se/20170205/swedens-urban-rural-divide-growing https://www.thelocal.se/20170205/swedens-urban-rural-divide-... points out, "It is primarily young people leaving". This is again the population which is in the same housing market as most of the refugees. Finally, here's a quote from an article from 2009 titled "Sweden risks facing severe labour shortages" / "Over the next ten years, the number of native-born Swedes of working age will decline by 100,000. Without more immigrants, we will be unable to sustain our welfare standards, writes Olle Wästberg, head of the Swedish Institute." https://www.thelocal.se/20091222/24004 https://www.thelocal.se/20091222/24004 > Almost all Swedish regions have set population targets that emphasise growth. The Greater Gothenburg area wants to have a population of 1.5 million in just ten years’ time. Stockholm wants to have 600,000 more inhabitants over the next 20 years. Was enough housing built to meet the desired growth goals?
- pimmen 9y ago
  But there is data of how many refugees entered Sweden in the 90s, it was roughly a hundred thousand a year then just like in the recent years. Did you read any of the links SiemperVernes linked to? You also say that you don't believe refugees could cut the line to public housing, did you check at all to find out if that was the case? Did you also cross check with SCB to find out how many new houses were built, since that statistics stretches well past the Million program more than 50 years ago? It even stretches back before WWII. https://www.scb.se/hitta-statistik/statistik-efter-amne/boende-byggande-och-bebyggelse/bostadsbyggande-och-ombyggnad/nybyggnad-av-bostader/pong/tabell-och-diagram/antal-fardigstallda-lagenheter-i-flerbostadshus-resp.-smahus/ https://www.scb.se/hitta-statistik/statistik-efter-amne/boen... Or is your personal belief based on your gut feeling? And, when you say that "they correlate well", what time period are you then looking at? And what data? Because immigration decreased in the mid 2000s while the housing prices increased. No offense, but it looks like your analytical method is "there's lots of newspaper articles about refugees these days, and lots of newspaper articles about rising housing prices, one of them must the main cause of the other". I might as well say "there's lots of articles about smartphones lately while the housing prices are increasing, maybe smartphones lets us live alone more effectively meaning that we take up more space when everyone gets their own apartment instead of a room mate".