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Yeah I hate these "Bitcoin is happening in (Insert African/Latin Country here)" type of remarks. For Bitcoin to succeed, it needs to conquer the US market adop

Yeah I hate these "Bitcoin is happening in (Insert African/Latin Country here)" type of remarks. For Bitcoin to succeed, it needs to conquer the US market adoption and it is not even close to doing that. All price gains are just speculation and market manipulation.

Pfhreak 9y ago
> For Bitcoin to succeed, it needs to conquer the US market adoption Genuinely: Why is that axiomatic? Why is there no path that is, reductively, in parts of the world where electronic payments are already normal, bitcoin becomes the instrument?
- ActsJuvenile 9y ago
  Because Zimbabwean consumer doesn't influence USA; but USA consumer influences rest of the world. I can't think of any technology besides micro-finance that has trickled-up to USA.
  - siavosh 9y ago
    Possibly using your phone for payment which has been long popular in Asia as well as Africa.
  - yen223 9y ago
    Counterpoint: WhatsApp and WeChat are huge despite not having much of an American presence.
    - FRex 9y ago
      That's not a counterpoint but a confirmation of the first part of the original argument. You just listed two examples of such apps that fail to influence America despite being huge in other countries. To make a counterpoint you need to find something popular in USA with no uptake outside of it or something that influenced USA but came from outside.
      - exelius 9y ago
        Honestly, the iPhone is a perfect "counterpoint" if you're looking for one. Dominant in the US, but relatively marginal worldwide.
        dingo_bat 9y ago
        Look at the world-wide smartphone revenue share and tell me if you think iPhone is "marginal".
        bildung 9y ago
        Yup, marginal (below 14%): https://www.statista.com/statistics/266136/global-market-share-held-by-smartphone-operating-systems/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/266136/global-market-sha...
        dingo_bat 9y ago
        Key word: revenue
        bildung 9y ago
        I can't find revenue numbers anywhere. Do you have a source?
        FRex 9y ago
        It's fairly less popular (it might have to do with high price) but nowhere near 'marginal'[0]: http://static5.businessinsider.com/image/58d04a02112f701f008b57db/heres-how-apples-iphone-sales-break-down-by-region.jpg http://static5.businessinsider.com/image/58d04a02112f701f008... It's also supposedly (I can't remember where I heard that, some tech channel on YT) the only non-Chinese brand that's popular at all in China. [0] Admittedly I have no idea for context of the picture and had to get it from google pictures since I couldn't visit business insider, I keep getting redirected to a Polish version of business insider that has NO TEXT AT ALL (?!). Also, what do people find so wrong with me pointing out that "here's 2 apps popular out of US but not in it" strengthens the "USA influences the world but not vice versa"?
  - alethiophile 9y ago
    If Bitcoin gains significant adoption overseas, that pushes up Bitcoin's value everywhere, USA included; geographical differences in price will be arbitraged away. The increase in price might or might not lead to greater US adoption, but it'll still benefit US holders.
  - erikpukinskis 9y ago
    You’re just pushing your axiom up a level. You’re still presuming US adoption is the measure of success. WeChat isn’t used in the US, but it’s still successful.
PKop 9y ago
Bitcoin will conquer weaker currencies first. How could it happen any other way? Even if you're not convinced until you see it conquer USD, you should still expect to see what we're seeing now[0]... weaker currencies falling before strong ones as BTC adoption follows along an S-curve of adoption. [0] http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/speculative-attack/ http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/speculative-attack/
- mr_toad 9y ago
  Bitcoin is too valuable to be used as currency.
  - PKop 9y ago
    Sure as it appreciates rapidly I agree. Eventually the expectation is the appreciation will slow down as X % of global currency/gold value is absorbed into the market cap of Bitcoin. At that point, you would expect to see more stability or at least slower appreciation. Then, the opportunity cost will be much lower than today. Deflationary currencies generally will produce less frivolous spending, which is a good thing. Lower time preference [0] vs fiat high time preference of today's economy will result in much more savings and investment vs consumption spending. Longer time horizons vs short termism that plagues markets now. Overall, an increase in prosperity and economic growth and decrease in debt and credit cycles (BTC immune to M0/M1 credit expansion and contraction = decrease in business cycle roller coaster) [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_preference https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_preference

Pfhreak 9y ago

> For Bitcoin to succeed, it needs to conquer the US market adoption Genuinely: Why is that axiomatic? Why is there no path that is, reductively, in parts of the world where electronic payments are already normal, bitcoin becomes the instrument?

ActsJuvenile 9y ago
Because Zimbabwean consumer doesn't influence USA; but USA consumer influences rest of the world. I can't think of any technology besides micro-finance that has trickled-up to USA.
- siavosh 9y ago
  Possibly using your phone for payment which has been long popular in Asia as well as Africa.
- yen223 9y ago
  Counterpoint: WhatsApp and WeChat are huge despite not having much of an American presence.
  - FRex 9y ago
    That's not a counterpoint but a confirmation of the first part of the original argument. You just listed two examples of such apps that fail to influence America despite being huge in other countries. To make a counterpoint you need to find something popular in USA with no uptake outside of it or something that influenced USA but came from outside.
    - exelius 9y ago
      Honestly, the iPhone is a perfect "counterpoint" if you're looking for one. Dominant in the US, but relatively marginal worldwide.
      - dingo_bat 9y ago
        Look at the world-wide smartphone revenue share and tell me if you think iPhone is "marginal".
        bildung 9y ago
        Yup, marginal (below 14%): https://www.statista.com/statistics/266136/global-market-share-held-by-smartphone-operating-systems/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/266136/global-market-sha...
        dingo_bat 9y ago
        Key word: revenue
        bildung 9y ago
        I can't find revenue numbers anywhere. Do you have a source?
      - FRex 9y ago
        It's fairly less popular (it might have to do with high price) but nowhere near 'marginal'[0]: http://static5.businessinsider.com/image/58d04a02112f701f008b57db/heres-how-apples-iphone-sales-break-down-by-region.jpg http://static5.businessinsider.com/image/58d04a02112f701f008... It's also supposedly (I can't remember where I heard that, some tech channel on YT) the only non-Chinese brand that's popular at all in China. [0] Admittedly I have no idea for context of the picture and had to get it from google pictures since I couldn't visit business insider, I keep getting redirected to a Polish version of business insider that has NO TEXT AT ALL (?!). Also, what do people find so wrong with me pointing out that "here's 2 apps popular out of US but not in it" strengthens the "USA influences the world but not vice versa"?
- alethiophile 9y ago
  If Bitcoin gains significant adoption overseas, that pushes up Bitcoin's value everywhere, USA included; geographical differences in price will be arbitraged away. The increase in price might or might not lead to greater US adoption, but it'll still benefit US holders.
- erikpukinskis 9y ago
  You’re just pushing your axiom up a level. You’re still presuming US adoption is the measure of success. WeChat isn’t used in the US, but it’s still successful.

PKop 9y ago

Bitcoin will conquer weaker currencies first. How could it happen any other way? Even if you're not convinced until you see it conquer USD, you should still expect to see what we're seeing now[0]... weaker currencies falling before strong ones as BTC adoption follows along an S-curve of adoption. [0] http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/speculative-attack/ http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/speculative-attack/

mr_toad 9y ago
Bitcoin is too valuable to be used as currency.
- PKop 9y ago
  Sure as it appreciates rapidly I agree. Eventually the expectation is the appreciation will slow down as X % of global currency/gold value is absorbed into the market cap of Bitcoin. At that point, you would expect to see more stability or at least slower appreciation. Then, the opportunity cost will be much lower than today. Deflationary currencies generally will produce less frivolous spending, which is a good thing. Lower time preference [0] vs fiat high time preference of today's economy will result in much more savings and investment vs consumption spending. Longer time horizons vs short termism that plagues markets now. Overall, an increase in prosperity and economic growth and decrease in debt and credit cycles (BTC immune to M0/M1 credit expansion and contraction = decrease in business cycle roller coaster) [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_preference https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_preference