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The shoes don't have to come from Bomet County. Nor does the food, or the electricity, or much of anything else. The poverty rate is just under 50%, per Wikipe

The shoes don't have to come from Bomet County. Nor does the food, or the electricity, or much of anything else. The poverty rate is just under 50%, per Wikipedia at least. If all the money is coming from the county (presumably it is), then it's going to be coming from the other 50%, and at a rate higher than neighboring (non-UBI) counties. It will be in the rational self-interest of that non-impoverished 50% to leave. Labor will be more expensive as fewer people want to do less-desirable work due to no strong need. I don't know how freely workers can move between counties, but obviously I imagine some people in neighboring counties will want to move in for the free paycheck. Over time, you've chased out the productive people and bolstered the less productive ones, and you're drawing from a smaller and smaller pool to pay for a larger and larger group of people. I've always felt like UBI is unsustainable, but at least worth debating. I haven't yet seen even proposed what should be done if UBI fails this way, though.

skybrian 9y ago
Interesting theory, but they already started a pilot study in one village, and the results were nothing like that, so far. There seems to to be lots of local small business investment. I also don't see anything about people moving in or out. https://givedirectly.org/blog-post?id=1423924916713458127 https://givedirectly.org/blog-post?id=1423924916713458127
- supermdguy 9y ago
  Thanks for the link.
- moduspol 9y ago
  That link says they started "last October" and is dated February 2017. It covers 95 people. That's a very short period of time, quite sparse on details, and a small group of people in an isolated environment. They're also not taking money from people in the community to redistribute. Put plainly: It's not surprising at all that one can take a lot of voluntarily-given money and distribute it to an impoverished village in Africa, resulting in them being happy and saying they're seeking work (in the short term). Normally, though, that's called "charity" rather than a UBI experiment, and even UBI opponents will acknowledge the likelihood of that happening.
virgil_disgr4ce 9y ago
> rational self-interest Isn't assuming this the basic failing of economics as a science? Not trying to be provocative, sincerely asking.
- moduspol 9y ago
  Well, the honest answer is "sometimes." People obviously don't simply pack up and move when the taxes are 0.1% lower on the other side of the country even if it is rational. But that doesn't justify ignoring common sense when crafting economic policy. When the federal government started subsidizing higher ed loans, it is not some unimaginable outcome that higher ed prices will increase. Banks, colleges, students, and parents are all operating in their own self-interest, but by artificially making more money available to consumers, they are naturally willing to spend more. It's just a sign of really bad policy when nobody is cheating the system and everyone is following the rules, but it results in really bad outcomes. And it's even worse when that happens and blame is passed to those rational actors (banks, colleges, etc.) because that further justifies bad policy.
house9-2 9y ago
> If all the money is coming from the county (presumably it is) I believe most of the money comes from outside the country, I started donating $25 a month to GiveDirectly this summer. In the years to come technology is going to replace the need for a lot of human labor and UBI will be required to maintain a civil society.

skybrian 9y ago

Interesting theory, but they already started a pilot study in one village, and the results were nothing like that, so far. There seems to to be lots of local small business investment. I also don't see anything about people moving in or out. https://givedirectly.org/blog-post?id=1423924916713458127 https://givedirectly.org/blog-post?id=1423924916713458127

supermdguy 9y ago
Thanks for the link.
moduspol 9y ago
That link says they started "last October" and is dated February 2017. It covers 95 people. That's a very short period of time, quite sparse on details, and a small group of people in an isolated environment. They're also not taking money from people in the community to redistribute. Put plainly: It's not surprising at all that one can take a lot of voluntarily-given money and distribute it to an impoverished village in Africa, resulting in them being happy and saying they're seeking work (in the short term). Normally, though, that's called "charity" rather than a UBI experiment, and even UBI opponents will acknowledge the likelihood of that happening.

virgil_disgr4ce 9y ago

> rational self-interest Isn't assuming this the basic failing of economics as a science? Not trying to be provocative, sincerely asking.

moduspol 9y ago
Well, the honest answer is "sometimes." People obviously don't simply pack up and move when the taxes are 0.1% lower on the other side of the country even if it is rational. But that doesn't justify ignoring common sense when crafting economic policy. When the federal government started subsidizing higher ed loans, it is not some unimaginable outcome that higher ed prices will increase. Banks, colleges, students, and parents are all operating in their own self-interest, but by artificially making more money available to consumers, they are naturally willing to spend more. It's just a sign of really bad policy when nobody is cheating the system and everyone is following the rules, but it results in really bad outcomes. And it's even worse when that happens and blame is passed to those rational actors (banks, colleges, etc.) because that further justifies bad policy.

house9-2 9y ago

> If all the money is coming from the county (presumably it is) I believe most of the money comes from outside the country, I started donating $25 a month to GiveDirectly this summer. In the years to come technology is going to replace the need for a lot of human labor and UBI will be required to maintain a civil society.