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The cynic in me sees that Kurzweil's predictions align with his unassisted life expectancy. So in some sense it's not surprising that he's being over optimistic

The cynic in me sees that Kurzweil's predictions align with his unassisted life expectancy. So in some sense it's not surprising that he's being over optimistic. I'm not generally a fan, but we have to give some credit to 'futurologists' who are prepared to make predictions! At least it makes for some interesting discussion.

radiorental 9y ago
> but we have to give some credit to 'futurologists' who are prepared to make predictions! I'm sorry, I do have to disagree. It's little more than recognizing a problem and envisioning a solution. Ideas are cheap. And in that sense they are little more than entrepreneurs with grand long term visions that require no commitment. Give credit to those who put blood and sweat behind their visions - and make them happen, not make vague 'predictions'. That's what Hollywood is for. I predict in the future we will be creating food from carbon scrubbed from atmosphere. I predict in the future that humans will communicate with machines through quantum teleportation via implants I predicate that in the future that if these predictions don't hold true, no one I know will be around to call me on it.
- WorldMaker 9y ago
  > And in that sense they are little more than entrepreneurs with grand long term visions that require no commitment. In light of Kurzweil specifically, he has at least some investment skin in the game in many (most?) cases of his predictions. All VCs to some extent are generally more optimistic than not that at least some of their bets will play out, and in my experience are more than happy to describe many of those bets in wild detail given the chance. (His only real "sin" here seems more that he's captured mainstream intrigue/interest more so than the average VC, whether because they prefer to play their cards a bit closer to their vest and/or mostly just stick to leaving their prognostications here on HN far from the limelight. ;)
  - radiorental 9y ago
    Entrepreneurs ≠ VCs That said, I appreciate Kurzeil has attempted to build products somewhat inline with his visions. E.g. https://www.kurzweiledu.com/products/kurzweil-1000-v14-windows.html https://www.kurzweiledu.com/products/kurzweil-1000-v14-windo... But these are mere tinker toys compared to the grand predictions, and mostly failed products too.
yters 9y ago
That's clever, banking his future predictions on the one thing he knows for sure: he'll die unless his other predictions come true.
aalleavitch 9y ago
Yeah, it's hard not to see how his fear of his own fate and that of his father motivate a lot of his more optimistic predictions.

radiorental 9y ago

> but we have to give some credit to 'futurologists' who are prepared to make predictions! I'm sorry, I do have to disagree. It's little more than recognizing a problem and envisioning a solution. Ideas are cheap. And in that sense they are little more than entrepreneurs with grand long term visions that require no commitment. Give credit to those who put blood and sweat behind their visions - and make them happen, not make vague 'predictions'. That's what Hollywood is for. I predict in the future we will be creating food from carbon scrubbed from atmosphere. I predict in the future that humans will communicate with machines through quantum teleportation via implants I predicate that in the future that if these predictions don't hold true, no one I know will be around to call me on it.

WorldMaker 9y ago
> And in that sense they are little more than entrepreneurs with grand long term visions that require no commitment. In light of Kurzweil specifically, he has at least some investment skin in the game in many (most?) cases of his predictions. All VCs to some extent are generally more optimistic than not that at least some of their bets will play out, and in my experience are more than happy to describe many of those bets in wild detail given the chance. (His only real "sin" here seems more that he's captured mainstream intrigue/interest more so than the average VC, whether because they prefer to play their cards a bit closer to their vest and/or mostly just stick to leaving their prognostications here on HN far from the limelight. ;)
- radiorental 9y ago
  Entrepreneurs ≠ VCs That said, I appreciate Kurzeil has attempted to build products somewhat inline with his visions. E.g. https://www.kurzweiledu.com/products/kurzweil-1000-v14-windows.html https://www.kurzweiledu.com/products/kurzweil-1000-v14-windo... But these are mere tinker toys compared to the grand predictions, and mostly failed products too.

yters 9y ago

That's clever, banking his future predictions on the one thing he knows for sure: he'll die unless his other predictions come true.

aalleavitch 9y ago

Yeah, it's hard not to see how his fear of his own fate and that of his father motivate a lot of his more optimistic predictions.