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I think the dude deserves a bit of a break- It really doesn't matter if he got 10%, 50% or 90% of his predictions right, all that matters is whether he made bet
by drcode 9y ago
I think the dude deserves a bit of a break- It really doesn't matter if he got 10%, 50% or 90% of his predictions right, all that matters is whether he made better and more relevant predictions than others at the time.
On that measure, I think he scored reasonably well (Though I confess I sold some Google stock when they installed him as Director of Engineering)
- arkades 9y agoNo, it matters what his reasoning is, too, as it relates to just being lucky (or as I tell my nieces when they’re studying for a science class and guess the right answer: if you’re right for the wrong reasons, you’re still wrong.) If you read his books, there’s an awful lot of hand waving and re- or mis-defining of terms to suit his arguments. It’s the sort of stuff that wouldn’t fly in a HS thesis paper, never mind as something marketed to bright minds.
- drcode 9y agoThe article we're discussing is about rating the accuracy of Kurzweil's predictions, it is not about the soundness of his reasoning. I agree that regardless of how we rate his predictions, the strategy he used to make those predictions has issues of its own.