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8% ROI is unrealistic, but a 2-4% is certainly possible especially with municipal bonds and insurance annuities. The former are also exempt from federal taxes,
by strlen 16y ago
8% ROI is unrealistic, but a 2-4% is certainly possible especially with municipal bonds and insurance annuities. The former are also exempt from federal taxes, state taxes (if you live in the same state) and even local taxes (if you live in the same city). Both have guarantees against inflation (at the cost of lower yield) .
Nonetheless, I do think the is somewhat overrated. If I had fuck you money, I'd... write code, read books and papers. I'd have more freedom on how I write my code during working hours (and it's important not to understate importance of that, but the more senior you get, the more choice you have in what you work on what tools you use), but I'd also not have the focus that comes from working on systems that solve actual problems that individuals and organizations have; nor would I be solving these problems at scale that makes them much more interesting.
On the other hand, I'm pretty confident that if I were to spend my time chasing a big payoff I'd be working on problems that are far less interesting and more frustrating (which is almost axiomatically why these problems have the payoff). There's very few early-stage startups doing systems programming (and I'm speaking loosely here i.e., beyond just operating system kernels and file systems). For web companies systems programming only becomes needed as a scalability becomes a problem (in most cases it never does). The idea that may be I'll be able to go back to doing what I enjoy most of the time if the business succeeds won't be enough to drive me: I already do that (perhaps that's why so few "home run" startups have come out of Google?)
Keep in mind that while stock options after product/market fit (pre-IPO startups, public companies) account for only a tiny percentage, the chance of a payoff is much higher (which, again, is why it's a tiny percentage: you're no longer taking a risk). That payoff is certainly no fuck you money (except in rare cases e.g., Google in early 2000s), but it's often sufficient in terms of giving you more freedom e.g., to go back to school for a Ph.D.
Were I to have a vision for a business (rather than a science project, which most of my ideas have been) based upon interesting technology (i.e., not a website) I'd certainly consider pursuing it, but even then I'd have no illusions: I suspect, I'd spend more of my time doing what I don't like (general business operations) than what I do (coding); it would be the vision of bringing forth new technologies that solves real problems that would let me pull through that (as opposed to pure research or solving business problems with well known existing technologies) .
- btilly 16y ago8% ROI is unrealistic, but a 2-4% is certainly possible especially with municipal bonds and insurance annuities. Amusingly, municipal bonds are in the top 4 likely candidates for our next set of major financial problems. The others are default on consumer ARM mortgages, debt on commercial real estate, and repayment on private equity. Interestingly, the largest class of investors in private equity funds this time around are government pension funds, which will just compound the risks for the munis. (The last time there was a bubble the investors were Savings and Loans institutions, the result was the S&L crisis of the late 80s/early 90s.)
- strlen 16y ago> Amusingly, municipal bonds are in the top 4 likely candidates for our next set of major financial problem There's several kind of muni bonds, however, each with their own set of trade offs. The higher yield, the higher the risk. Some are guarantees, but only offer a very low yield. If the guarantees lapse, the problems are likely to be very deep, irrespective. For what it's worth, I'm sticking with FDIC insured bank CDs across two banks, but I my expectation is more of "retain value" rather than "investment".
- illumin8 16y agoInsurance annuities are not as risky as municipal bonds. What's more, your state's insurance commissioner guarantees them, similar to the FDIC guarantee on deposit accounts, up to a certain dollar amount (I think it's something like $100K). So you have $2 million in F-you money? Stick $100K each into 20 different insurance company annuities (staying below the guaranteed amount and diversifying your risk) and enjoy guaranteed monthly (inflation adjusted) checks for the rest of your life. The only thing that will stop your income stream is the complete destruction of the entire US financial system. I suppose that is possible, but if that happens your money won't be safe anywhere, except perhaps gold bars buried in your back yard...