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> I'm not going to see flying cars in my lifetime How old are you now? 20, 30, 40? Given an average life of lets say 80. That's 40 years. So much could hap

> I'm not going to see flying cars in my lifetime How old are you now? 20, 30, 40? Given an average life of lets say 80. That's 40 years. So much could happen. Are you serious? > at least until we get some demonstrable AI in consumer products that's anywhere near what I'd trust to drive a car Google started the self driving concept back in 2009. 16 years later, here we are. Also, that's half of what's left of a potential lifetime. Waymo is testing on public roads now [1]. Here's an article details the other competitors timelines [2]: GM: Rumors of self-driving vehicles by 2018 Ford: Truly self-driving vehicles by 2021 Honda: Self-driving on the highway by 2020 Toyota: Self-driving on the highway by 2020 Renault-Nissan: 2020 for autonomous cars in urban conditions, 2025 for truly driverless cars Volvo: Self-driving on the highway by 2021 Hyundai: Highway by 2020, urban driving by 2030 Daimler: Nearly fully autonomous by early 2020s Fiat-Chrysler: CEO expects there to be some self driving vehicles on the road by 2021 BMW: Fully self-driving vehicles possible by 2021 Tesla: End of 2017 Lets say, that all the manufacturers slip and it's only until 2030 that it's a viable consumer product. That's still 26 years it took to develop. Way way less than half a lifetime. Now if we extrapolate all that AI and knowledge and apply it to: [3] - Uber enlists help from NASA in bid to launch flying taxis by 2020 then [4] - [5] - [6] and probably more companies who are racing to make this a reality. Even if it took them 20 years to do so. You'd still see it in your life-time. ----- So please. I'd love to hear a rebuttal. [1]: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/nov/07/google-waymo-announces-fully-autonomous-ride-hailing-service-uber-alphabet https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/nov/07/google-wa... [2]: https://venturebeat.com/2017/06/04/self-driving-car-timeline-for-11-top-automakers/ https://venturebeat.com/2017/06/04/self-driving-car-timeline... [3]: https://news.sky.com/story/uber-enlists-help-from-nasa-in-bid-to-launch-flying-taxis-by-2020-11119777 https://news.sky.com/story/uber-enlists-help-from-nasa-in-bi... [4]: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/21/electric-flying-car-lilium-google-uber-vtol-jet-taxi https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/21/electric-fl... [5]: https://www.wired.com/story/delorean-aerospace-flying-car/ https://www.wired.com/story/delorean-aerospace-flying-car/ [6]: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/17/flying-car-company-aeromobil-says-radical-concept-vehicle-will/ http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/17/flying-car-compan...

mikestew 9y ago
How old are you now? 20, 30, 40? Try again, Sonny. :-) So please. I'd love to hear a rebuttal. My rebuttal is that I've walked this earth for a number of decades, and the track record of such predictions has been dismal. We've been "almost there" for decades. Tesla can't even accurately predict when they'll ship you a Model 3, and you're just going to take the word of Tesla, et. al. on when this AI-run technological miracle will happen? But if you want a rebuttal, here it is: you list car companies that claim to have self-driving cars in the next three to four years. And yet there isn't a single company that has produced anything on a smaller scale (Siri/OKGoogle, home robot, or the like) AI/ML-related that has me thinking, "you know, I could imagine this expanding to something that could drive a car in a few years." Nothing, not a single product. If you have something along those lines that you think would fit the bill, that I can walk down to the store and buy today, I'd reconsider my position (slightly). But that's cars, for which we have existing infrastructure for routes, refueling, and traveller services. And despite my pessimism, I expect self-driving cars in which I can take a nap on the way to happen within ten years. But flying cars? The thing that we can't even make for practical use even if you want to pilot it yourself? And we want to slap an AI control on it? With very little infrastructure to support the idea? Yup, I will be a pile of stone cold ashes before that happens. But I hope I'm wrong about the "in my lifetime" part. Because if I am wrong, then I get a flying car and I'll have lived way past the point that I expected to. :-)
- no1youknowz 9y ago
  > Try again, Sonny. :-) Well, it's all makes sense as to why you are so pessimistic. You sound quite a lot like my Dad. He's in his 60s and I'm in my 40s. We have differing view points. To him, technology is slow and things will take literally multi-decades. Because it did for him, that's how he experienced it. Whereas for me, we've gone from iPhone 3 to X in a blink of an eye. We've gone from DeepMind creating AI to solve Go, to it training itself. Technology is starting to exponentially increase faster and faster. There will be breakthroughs coming that some of us won't even be aware of and that will lead to changes that affect everyone. But one final thing. Even if you are 60, you still have another good 20 years. You may just see it yet!

mikestew 9y ago

How old are you now? 20, 30, 40? Try again, Sonny. :-) So please. I'd love to hear a rebuttal. My rebuttal is that I've walked this earth for a number of decades, and the track record of such predictions has been dismal. We've been "almost there" for decades. Tesla can't even accurately predict when they'll ship you a Model 3, and you're just going to take the word of Tesla, et. al. on when this AI-run technological miracle will happen? But if you want a rebuttal, here it is: you list car companies that claim to have self-driving cars in the next three to four years. And yet there isn't a single company that has produced anything on a smaller scale (Siri/OKGoogle, home robot, or the like) AI/ML-related that has me thinking, "you know, I could imagine this expanding to something that could drive a car in a few years." Nothing, not a single product. If you have something along those lines that you think would fit the bill, that I can walk down to the store and buy today, I'd reconsider my position (slightly). But that's cars, for which we have existing infrastructure for routes, refueling, and traveller services. And despite my pessimism, I expect self-driving cars in which I can take a nap on the way to happen within ten years. But flying cars? The thing that we can't even make for practical use even if you want to pilot it yourself? And we want to slap an AI control on it? With very little infrastructure to support the idea? Yup, I will be a pile of stone cold ashes before that happens. But I hope I'm wrong about the "in my lifetime" part. Because if I am wrong, then I get a flying car and I'll have lived way past the point that I expected to. :-)

no1youknowz 9y ago
> Try again, Sonny. :-) Well, it's all makes sense as to why you are so pessimistic. You sound quite a lot like my Dad. He's in his 60s and I'm in my 40s. We have differing view points. To him, technology is slow and things will take literally multi-decades. Because it did for him, that's how he experienced it. Whereas for me, we've gone from iPhone 3 to X in a blink of an eye. We've gone from DeepMind creating AI to solve Go, to it training itself. Technology is starting to exponentially increase faster and faster. There will be breakthroughs coming that some of us won't even be aware of and that will lead to changes that affect everyone. But one final thing. Even if you are 60, you still have another good 20 years. You may just see it yet!