7 ms·

Tesla will reveal its semi this Thursday, and Musk promises to 'blow your mind'

65 points by SirLJ 9y ago

mmel 9y ago
If it can't meet current demand on the Tesla 3, how could it possibly ship much larger vehicles with presumably a much greater battery capacity in a relevant timeframe?
- brad0 9y ago
  It’s as much publicity as it is building it IMO. Moving perception to new and exciting things is a useful tactic for companies.
  - kmonsen 9y ago
    Same story as the solar roof, when they meet resistance they push some new fantasy that might never see the light of day.
- dogruck 9y ago
  Perhaps a semi truck is relatively easier than a lower budget car?
- pavs 9y ago
  If I understand correctly, the current speed bump in production is temp issue in production - which is a fixable problem that's taking a bit of time. That doesn't mean they should halt all their other projects in the pipeline. If anything, IMO, stopping all their other projects would mean there are bigger production issues then they officially shared. Which would be much worse. Revealing Semi, proves that they are on the right path (they were supposed to reveal semi at the end of this year anyway), minus a temp setback. I think most people are making a much bigger deal out of this setback.
  - noitsnot 9y ago
    I read the temp. production issue is they're hand welding and making custom parts. It's been three+? months, either way. Maybe temp. isn't the best word to use here. They apparently have no plan to actually deliver the 400k+ preorders in the near future or the schedule they presented.
    - pavs 9y ago
      Since we don't know the exact specification of the problem other than what he said, she said. Hand welding could be because their auto bot welding parts were having issues, and are in the process of fixing them. Is it really that bad? the alternative would be sitting on their butt while the bots are fixed - resulting is zero cars made. Which would have a much much worse public perception? The other official reason is battery pack issue (could be related to welding, who knows). Again Battery pack is their defacto business, Tesla is essentially a big battery pack strapped into a car. They know how to put batteries better than almost anyone else in the market - if anyone can bounce back from this setback quickly - it's Tesla. So, again, I don't see a huge issue. I see temp setbacks. I will take slow production rate over a massive recall of cars (which happens quite often per year, by car industry veteran), any day of the week. I don't own and Tesla stocks, or any products made by any companies by Musk - or indirectly profit from his products. I also don't worship him. I just don't like the general witch hunting mentality on the internet. Where minor setbacks or mistakes are blown way out of proportion.
      - jcranmer 9y ago
        > The other official reason is battery pack issue (could be related to welding, who knows). Again Battery pack is their defacto business, Tesla is essentially a big battery pack strapped into a car. They know how to put batteries better than almost anyone else in the market - if anyone can bounce back from this setback quickly - it's Tesla. What you're saying here, in short, is "They're having issues in their core competency. Since it's their core competency, it'll obviously be fixed soon." Phrased in such general terms, it's actually not reason to be optimistic about Tesla's future.
empath75 9y ago
At this point, what would blow my mind is tesla making their production goals for like anything at all.
- goshx 9y ago
  For me, judging by their cars on the streets and all the technology advancements since they started, missing production goals by a few months or even a couple years is irrelevant. I think we are all too spoiled and tend to dismiss real technological challenges because “I want it now!”.
  - praneshp 9y ago
    > because “I want it now!”. Isn't it because "Tesla, a public company, promised/projected this production goal"?
    - goshx 9y ago
      Does that change anyone else’s lives other than those who are actually waiting for the car?
      - Judgmentality 9y ago
        The shareholders?
        cameldrv 9y ago
        Musk doesn't really care about the shareholders. He has a vision, and the company is the embodiment of that vision. The only reason he took the company public in the first place was for access to capital, and the ability for employees to sell stock. Since the eighties there has been this maximal version of shareholder value, where the only reason for a company to exist is to maximize returns to shareholders. This was promulgated by private equity firms who would take over a firm and destroy many of the good things that a company was doing that didn't generate profits in order to increase returns to shareholders. Prior to the PE hostile takeover boom, there was a general understanding that shareholders were very important, but not the only stakeholder in a corporation. If you invest in Tesla though, don't count on the corporate raider philosophy of stock ownership. They may have been able to get other companies in line with the threat of a hostile takeover, but Tesla has protective provisions that make it nearly impossible to do a hostile takeover of Tesla. For better or worse, Tesla is whatever Elon Musk wants it to be. If you're a shareholder, you're just along for the ride.
lowglow 9y ago
Techendo predicted the rise of Elon Musk on an old episode way back in the day. Now I'm quite honestly tired of hearing about the hype. The fatigue is real.
ttul 9y ago
I think what will blow our minds into an alternative dimension is that these trucks are level 4 self driving...
senectus1 9y ago
I have really mixed feelings about Musk. But I love his ideas... I want to believe... I really want his ideas to work. I wont invest in his companies.. but I'm rooting for them to succeed.
- kmonsen 9y ago
  I agree, but unfortunately building a business is more about implementation details than big goals.
taobility 9y ago
Another bubble Elon Musk blowed up to stimulate Tesla's stock.
oneman 9y ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHNgSMhkoBk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHNgSMhkoBk weeeee
nimos 9y ago
I actually think the math really works out well for semis given you can burn through your battery lifespan super quick. Let's say you take two 15 minute breaks + 30 minute lunch per day. That is 1 hour of charge time. Assuming you start from full battery and a 2% per minute supercharge rate (~what wikipedia has for the model s) that gives you an extra 120% battery. 1.9kwh per mile and driving 600 miles per day and you can get away with a 400kwh battery. Less actually but my understanding is you want to not charge to 100% for maximum lifespan. Not sure the optimal cost trade offs... 7 cents per kilowatt hour * 1.9 * 600 = ~$80 a day vs $2.7 a gallon * 600/6(mpg) = $270 a day $150/kwh for battery with 2000 full cycles is $85 dollars a day without interest(only ~2 year lifespan so w/e and presumably has some residual value also not taken into account) Seems to work out to about $100 a day in savings?? I feel like I must be off on numbers somewhere. Data on number of cycles doesn't seem to be particularly consistent.
- struppi 9y ago
  Magna has electric trucks as a short-range shuttle between factories. They charge during loading/unloading. So it certainly seems doable, at least for short-range transportation. https://investinaustria.at/en/news/2017/11/magna.php https://investinaustria.at/en/news/2017/11/magna.php I don't know about long-range. But I would be curious where you get the 1.9 kWh/mile and the 600 miles per day figure from?
  - nimos 9y ago
    1.9 was sort of an average from googling. This seems like the most detailed source which has a slightly higher number. https://insideevs.com/tesla-semi-truck-battery-is-how-big/ https://insideevs.com/tesla-semi-truck-battery-is-how-big/ 600 is just random googling of what is a long but not super long day for most truck drivers.
- donquichotte 9y ago
  > $150/kw That's insanely cheap, if you can find a place where I can buy batteries for 150$/kWh, please let me know. The cheapest I found are still >300$/kWh. > 7cents/kWh In NY the price is ~0.2$/kWh [1] Also, a 400kWh battery weighs 2 tons. [2] [1] https://www.bls.gov/regions/new-york-new-jersey/news-release/averageenergyprices_newyorkarea.htm https://www.bls.gov/regions/new-york-new-jersey/news-release... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density
paulsutter 9y ago
Batteries on the trailers, charge while loading
- dingaling 9y ago
  That would be a logistical headache. Current semi-trailers are low-tech, interchangeable and universally compatible. Introducing a dependency on a specific subset of trailers for a specific tractor, plus the need for charging facilities at endpoints, would make operations much more complicated and expensive.
LouisSayers 9y ago
So, Tesla has models S3X, and now has a semi... LMAO
_ph_ 9y ago
I am looking quite forward to that announcement. While other manufacturers have shown some electric semis, they were all in the demo stage. If Tesla manages to get a practical electric semi into production, the impact could be huge. For those, who think that Tesla should concentrate on the Model 3 first, this is the early product announcement for the semi - production is probably starting in a year only, so there are no real conflicts.
pleasecalllater 9y ago
Yea, every time the company fails to work, he shows up, and tells about other mystery projects. I'm not sure how he started to be so trust-worthy, and why people give him loads of money, as he is simply an unrealistic dreamer. And then we hear that the workers in the factories are quite badly treated, and that he personally is the smartest man on the world. This is so ridiculous. So I suppose he will show some special-ultra-super-hiper-cool project like "cold fusion generator for every house", and people will throw even more money into that black hole. Next year, after all other things he say will not work, he will probably show super ultra Tesla Model Black Hole 5. And he will get even more money. How many people need to die to stop that hype about one person who mainly tries to do good impression? http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-factory-workers-detail-grueling-conditions-fremont-2017-5?IR=T http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-factory-workers-detail-...
- abraae 9y ago
  Perhaps he is an unrealistic dreamer (though one who has achieved an incredible amount) but I can't think of any other individual who is doing as much for the planet.
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
tckr 9y ago
What they will be presenting is a design, and a powerpoint slide of promises. Let's wait how long it takes for the first of those trucks to actually be used.
ww520 9y ago
Is another round of fund raising coming around the corner?
VeejayRampay 9y ago
The negativity with Musk is, as usual, strong in the comments. One would think that a daring entrepreneur tackling all the important problems of our time would be the beloved poster child of HN, but no, apparently he has failed to meet production goals or something so obviously he sucks.

65 points by SirLJ 9y ago

mmel 9y ago

If it can't meet current demand on the Tesla 3, how could it possibly ship much larger vehicles with presumably a much greater battery capacity in a relevant timeframe?

brad0 9y ago
It’s as much publicity as it is building it IMO. Moving perception to new and exciting things is a useful tactic for companies.
- kmonsen 9y ago
  Same story as the solar roof, when they meet resistance they push some new fantasy that might never see the light of day.
dogruck 9y ago
Perhaps a semi truck is relatively easier than a lower budget car?
pavs 9y ago
If I understand correctly, the current speed bump in production is temp issue in production - which is a fixable problem that's taking a bit of time. That doesn't mean they should halt all their other projects in the pipeline. If anything, IMO, stopping all their other projects would mean there are bigger production issues then they officially shared. Which would be much worse. Revealing Semi, proves that they are on the right path (they were supposed to reveal semi at the end of this year anyway), minus a temp setback. I think most people are making a much bigger deal out of this setback.
- noitsnot 9y ago
  I read the temp. production issue is they're hand welding and making custom parts. It's been three+? months, either way. Maybe temp. isn't the best word to use here. They apparently have no plan to actually deliver the 400k+ preorders in the near future or the schedule they presented.
  - pavs 9y ago
    Since we don't know the exact specification of the problem other than what he said, she said. Hand welding could be because their auto bot welding parts were having issues, and are in the process of fixing them. Is it really that bad? the alternative would be sitting on their butt while the bots are fixed - resulting is zero cars made. Which would have a much much worse public perception? The other official reason is battery pack issue (could be related to welding, who knows). Again Battery pack is their defacto business, Tesla is essentially a big battery pack strapped into a car. They know how to put batteries better than almost anyone else in the market - if anyone can bounce back from this setback quickly - it's Tesla. So, again, I don't see a huge issue. I see temp setbacks. I will take slow production rate over a massive recall of cars (which happens quite often per year, by car industry veteran), any day of the week. I don't own and Tesla stocks, or any products made by any companies by Musk - or indirectly profit from his products. I also don't worship him. I just don't like the general witch hunting mentality on the internet. Where minor setbacks or mistakes are blown way out of proportion.
    - jcranmer 9y ago
      > The other official reason is battery pack issue (could be related to welding, who knows). Again Battery pack is their defacto business, Tesla is essentially a big battery pack strapped into a car. They know how to put batteries better than almost anyone else in the market - if anyone can bounce back from this setback quickly - it's Tesla. What you're saying here, in short, is "They're having issues in their core competency. Since it's their core competency, it'll obviously be fixed soon." Phrased in such general terms, it's actually not reason to be optimistic about Tesla's future.

empath75 9y ago

At this point, what would blow my mind is tesla making their production goals for like anything at all.

goshx 9y ago
For me, judging by their cars on the streets and all the technology advancements since they started, missing production goals by a few months or even a couple years is irrelevant. I think we are all too spoiled and tend to dismiss real technological challenges because “I want it now!”.
- praneshp 9y ago
  > because “I want it now!”. Isn't it because "Tesla, a public company, promised/projected this production goal"?
  - goshx 9y ago
    Does that change anyone else’s lives other than those who are actually waiting for the car?
    - Judgmentality 9y ago
      The shareholders?
      - cameldrv 9y ago
        Musk doesn't really care about the shareholders. He has a vision, and the company is the embodiment of that vision. The only reason he took the company public in the first place was for access to capital, and the ability for employees to sell stock. Since the eighties there has been this maximal version of shareholder value, where the only reason for a company to exist is to maximize returns to shareholders. This was promulgated by private equity firms who would take over a firm and destroy many of the good things that a company was doing that didn't generate profits in order to increase returns to shareholders. Prior to the PE hostile takeover boom, there was a general understanding that shareholders were very important, but not the only stakeholder in a corporation. If you invest in Tesla though, don't count on the corporate raider philosophy of stock ownership. They may have been able to get other companies in line with the threat of a hostile takeover, but Tesla has protective provisions that make it nearly impossible to do a hostile takeover of Tesla. For better or worse, Tesla is whatever Elon Musk wants it to be. If you're a shareholder, you're just along for the ride.

lowglow 9y ago

Techendo predicted the rise of Elon Musk on an old episode way back in the day. Now I'm quite honestly tired of hearing about the hype. The fatigue is real.

ttul 9y ago

I think what will blow our minds into an alternative dimension is that these trucks are level 4 self driving...

senectus1 9y ago

I have really mixed feelings about Musk. But I love his ideas... I want to believe... I really want his ideas to work. I wont invest in his companies.. but I'm rooting for them to succeed.

kmonsen 9y ago
I agree, but unfortunately building a business is more about implementation details than big goals.

taobility 9y ago

Another bubble Elon Musk blowed up to stimulate Tesla's stock.

oneman 9y ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHNgSMhkoBk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHNgSMhkoBk weeeee

nimos 9y ago

I actually think the math really works out well for semis given you can burn through your battery lifespan super quick. Let's say you take two 15 minute breaks + 30 minute lunch per day. That is 1 hour of charge time. Assuming you start from full battery and a 2% per minute supercharge rate (~what wikipedia has for the model s) that gives you an extra 120% battery. 1.9kwh per mile and driving 600 miles per day and you can get away with a 400kwh battery. Less actually but my understanding is you want to not charge to 100% for maximum lifespan. Not sure the optimal cost trade offs... 7 cents per kilowatt hour * 1.9 * 600 = ~$80 a day vs $2.7 a gallon * 600/6(mpg) = $270 a day $150/kwh for battery with 2000 full cycles is $85 dollars a day without interest(only ~2 year lifespan so w/e and presumably has some residual value also not taken into account) Seems to work out to about $100 a day in savings?? I feel like I must be off on numbers somewhere. Data on number of cycles doesn't seem to be particularly consistent.

struppi 9y ago
Magna has electric trucks as a short-range shuttle between factories. They charge during loading/unloading. So it certainly seems doable, at least for short-range transportation. https://investinaustria.at/en/news/2017/11/magna.php https://investinaustria.at/en/news/2017/11/magna.php I don't know about long-range. But I would be curious where you get the 1.9 kWh/mile and the 600 miles per day figure from?
- nimos 9y ago
  1.9 was sort of an average from googling. This seems like the most detailed source which has a slightly higher number. https://insideevs.com/tesla-semi-truck-battery-is-how-big/ https://insideevs.com/tesla-semi-truck-battery-is-how-big/ 600 is just random googling of what is a long but not super long day for most truck drivers.
donquichotte 9y ago
> $150/kw That's insanely cheap, if you can find a place where I can buy batteries for 150$/kWh, please let me know. The cheapest I found are still >300$/kWh. > 7cents/kWh In NY the price is ~0.2$/kWh [1] Also, a 400kWh battery weighs 2 tons. [2] [1] https://www.bls.gov/regions/new-york-new-jersey/news-release/averageenergyprices_newyorkarea.htm https://www.bls.gov/regions/new-york-new-jersey/news-release... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density

paulsutter 9y ago

Batteries on the trailers, charge while loading

dingaling 9y ago
That would be a logistical headache. Current semi-trailers are low-tech, interchangeable and universally compatible. Introducing a dependency on a specific subset of trailers for a specific tractor, plus the need for charging facilities at endpoints, would make operations much more complicated and expensive.

LouisSayers 9y ago

So, Tesla has models S3X, and now has a semi... LMAO

_ph_ 9y ago

I am looking quite forward to that announcement. While other manufacturers have shown some electric semis, they were all in the demo stage. If Tesla manages to get a practical electric semi into production, the impact could be huge. For those, who think that Tesla should concentrate on the Model 3 first, this is the early product announcement for the semi - production is probably starting in a year only, so there are no real conflicts.

pleasecalllater 9y ago

Yea, every time the company fails to work, he shows up, and tells about other mystery projects. I'm not sure how he started to be so trust-worthy, and why people give him loads of money, as he is simply an unrealistic dreamer. And then we hear that the workers in the factories are quite badly treated, and that he personally is the smartest man on the world. This is so ridiculous. So I suppose he will show some special-ultra-super-hiper-cool project like "cold fusion generator for every house", and people will throw even more money into that black hole. Next year, after all other things he say will not work, he will probably show super ultra Tesla Model Black Hole 5. And he will get even more money. How many people need to die to stop that hype about one person who mainly tries to do good impression? http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-factory-workers-detail-grueling-conditions-fremont-2017-5?IR=T http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-factory-workers-detail-...

abraae 9y ago
Perhaps he is an unrealistic dreamer (though one who has achieved an incredible amount) but I can't think of any other individual who is doing as much for the planet.
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]

tckr 9y ago

What they will be presenting is a design, and a powerpoint slide of promises. Let's wait how long it takes for the first of those trucks to actually be used.

ww520 9y ago

Is another round of fund raising coming around the corner?

VeejayRampay 9y ago

The negativity with Musk is, as usual, strong in the comments. One would think that a daring entrepreneur tackling all the important problems of our time would be the beloved poster child of HN, but no, apparently he has failed to meet production goals or something so obviously he sucks.