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Tesla Approaches Terminal Decline

45 points by SA500 9y ago

zwily 9y ago
Seeking Alpha is bearish on Tesla! News at 11.
Tiktaalik 9y ago
Harsh truths here. >... As long as 1) wealthy consumers in western nations but also China are eager to seek indulgence by way of green-washing and, 2) are in search of a Steve Jobs replacement persona onto which they can project their hopes for a gleaming future and, 3) are disillusioned with the establishment and its leaders, the company will likely succeed to raise cash again. > The Tesla narrative is based on an illusion, a contradictio in adjecto - the promise that humankind can shop and consume itself into a sustainable future. However, even a million Teslas on the world’s roads will not impact the environment for better or worse. It is a systemic issue. ...Sustainability and promoting the purchase of raw-material consuming heavyweight products are mutually exclusive.
- skybrian 9y ago
  This proves too much. Even assuming for the moment that Tesla did fail, there's no reason other auto manufacturers won't keep producing electric cars and be successful at it. Any "lessons learned" would have to do with Telsa alone (with respect to their finances).
- jacob019 9y ago
  I don't want a Tesla because they're green. I want one because they're wicked fast, because they provide full torque from a dead stop. Because I hate the gas station. Because the interior is both luxurious and minimalist. I want one so much, and I could care less about the environmental impact. Long term, electric cars will fully replace the ICE because they're simpler, faster, and cheaper.
  - dogma1138 9y ago
    They aren’t that fast they have good acceleration but you’ll top out very quickly and your car will throttle down because your battery pack overheats. The breaks, suspension and handling is also poor. Want a fast car? A Maclaren 650 Spider can be bought for the same price or so a a new Tesla 100D its much faster and much more fun to drive. The ludicrous mode in a Tesla is a gimmick nothing more nothing less. And if you think that the Model S is luxurious then you need to step into a mid range BMW or a Benz, Tesla looks good but feels very cheap. So far if you want luxury and a low impact then the plug-in hybrids form BMW are the way to go you get about 30 miles on battery which is more or less within the commute range of many people, a proper luxury as far as the finish goes and at less than half the price of the Model S. I can buy a new BMW 330e today for less than £35,000 a Tesla would start at about double that.
- thisisit 9y ago
  >> 2) are in search of a Steve Jobs replacement persona onto which they can project their hopes for a gleaming future Sometimes I wonder was Steve Jobs was a replacement persona for someone before him or was it like a new phenomena?
  - dogma1138 9y ago
    Probably, you can go all back to Edison and likely even to some cave in France for the launch even of the iSling..::
horsecaptin 9y ago
Securities news outlets that feed on your euphoria and insecurity: - Investor Daily - Seeking Alpha - The Motley Fool - Amigo Bulls - Jim Cramer - Zero Hedge [edit: adding this. I'm sure there are a bunch more] They are SEO mills.
- Lewton 9y ago
  Why is this downvoted? Seekingalpha is low quality trash that doesn’t belong on hn. It’s pure stock market spam, and I’d hate to see that gain a foothold here
  - adamlett 9y ago
    This article does not strike me as low quality. It is long, thorough and well argued. I'm sure there are reasons to be skeptical about its conclusions, and I would love to hear them.
- spondyl 9y ago
  As someone who rarely follows securities but is interested nonetheless, what outlets would you recommend if any?
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
  - horsecaptin 9y ago
    Even people who are avid followers constantly get played. My advice if you rarely follow them is to let the news trickle in through reputable channels (WallStreet Journal, The LA Times etc.). Learn about the industry, it's history, the major players, and then try to see how the company you're interested in fits into the picture. There are communities (subreddits) dedicated to those companies and although they are biased, you can also check out the competing company's communities. Try to judge for yourself if you think that the product or service that the company offers adds the market value that their market-cap claims it does. See if you can learn about the company's customers and how they're doing. Hows the economy as a whole doing? What about geo-political / climate situation - how large a role does it play? Then, wait. Let things soak in a little. Keep asking questions. Of course, most people will never do this. I myself am a victim, and let me tell you - I've lost a lot of money by not doing my own homework.
IBM 9y ago
Jim Chanos, a famous short seller known for his Enron short (and who's also shorting Tesla), often refers to the book The Seven Signs of Ethical Collapse by Marianne Jennings [1] when talking about identifying financial frauds. Here's a brief summary of it [2]. It's eerie how many apply to Elon Musk and Tesla. [1] https://www.amazon.com/dp/B008FPVKVA/ https://www.amazon.com/dp/B008FPVKVA/ [2] https://www.scu.edu/ethics/focus-areas/business-ethics/resources/seven-signs-of-ethical-collapse/ https://www.scu.edu/ethics/focus-areas/business-ethics/resou...
dmode 9y ago
Seeking Alpha has been predicting Tesla decline for a decade and had been shorting it's stock. It's a FUD article.
- tristanj 9y ago
  SA is a blogging platform. SA does not write these articles, independent contributors write them. Forbes and HuffPo have a similar system.
- adamlett 9y ago
  I'm sure there is legitimate criticism to be levelled at the article, and I would love to read it, so that I can get smarter. But you are merely poisoning the well, effectively preventing a discussion of the article on its merits.
speeq 9y ago
> if one then assumes that Tesla will be able to miraculously achieve a 12% net margin per car (more than Audi does for its A4 series or BMW Given that the "Add Enhanced Autopilot" and "Full self-driving capability" features are basically a $9k software update, I think the Model 3 is going to have some interesting margins once they scale up production.
_Codemonkeyism 9y ago
"And then, as long as 1) wealthy consumers in western nations but also China are eager to seek indulgence by way of green-washing and, 2) are in search of a Steve Jobs replacement persona onto which they can project their hopes for a gleaming future and, 3) are disillusioned with the establishment and its leaders, the company will likely succeed to raise cash again."

45 points by SA500 9y ago

Seeking Alpha is bearish on Tesla! News at 11.

Harsh truths here. >... As long as 1) wealthy consumers in western nations but also China are eager to seek indulgence by way of green-washing and, 2) are in search of a Steve Jobs replacement persona onto which they can project their hopes for a gleaming future and, 3) are disillusioned with the establishment and its leaders, the company will likely succeed to raise cash again. > The Tesla narrative is based on an illusion, a contradictio in adjecto - the promise that humankind can shop and consume itself into a sustainable future. However, even a million Teslas on the world’s roads will not impact the environment for better or worse. It is a systemic issue. ...Sustainability and promoting the purchase of raw-material consuming heavyweight products are mutually exclusive.

skybrian 9y ago
This proves too much. Even assuming for the moment that Tesla did fail, there's no reason other auto manufacturers won't keep producing electric cars and be successful at it. Any "lessons learned" would have to do with Telsa alone (with respect to their finances).
jacob019 9y ago
I don't want a Tesla because they're green. I want one because they're wicked fast, because they provide full torque from a dead stop. Because I hate the gas station. Because the interior is both luxurious and minimalist. I want one so much, and I could care less about the environmental impact. Long term, electric cars will fully replace the ICE because they're simpler, faster, and cheaper.
- dogma1138 9y ago
  They aren’t that fast they have good acceleration but you’ll top out very quickly and your car will throttle down because your battery pack overheats. The breaks, suspension and handling is also poor. Want a fast car? A Maclaren 650 Spider can be bought for the same price or so a a new Tesla 100D its much faster and much more fun to drive. The ludicrous mode in a Tesla is a gimmick nothing more nothing less. And if you think that the Model S is luxurious then you need to step into a mid range BMW or a Benz, Tesla looks good but feels very cheap. So far if you want luxury and a low impact then the plug-in hybrids form BMW are the way to go you get about 30 miles on battery which is more or less within the commute range of many people, a proper luxury as far as the finish goes and at less than half the price of the Model S. I can buy a new BMW 330e today for less than £35,000 a Tesla would start at about double that.
thisisit 9y ago
>> 2) are in search of a Steve Jobs replacement persona onto which they can project their hopes for a gleaming future Sometimes I wonder was Steve Jobs was a replacement persona for someone before him or was it like a new phenomena?
- dogma1138 9y ago
  Probably, you can go all back to Edison and likely even to some cave in France for the launch even of the iSling..::

horsecaptin 9y ago

Securities news outlets that feed on your euphoria and insecurity: - Investor Daily - Seeking Alpha - The Motley Fool - Amigo Bulls - Jim Cramer - Zero Hedge [edit: adding this. I'm sure there are a bunch more] They are SEO mills.

Lewton 9y ago
Why is this downvoted? Seekingalpha is low quality trash that doesn’t belong on hn. It’s pure stock market spam, and I’d hate to see that gain a foothold here
- adamlett 9y ago
  This article does not strike me as low quality. It is long, thorough and well argued. I'm sure there are reasons to be skeptical about its conclusions, and I would love to hear them.
spondyl 9y ago
As someone who rarely follows securities but is interested nonetheless, what outlets would you recommend if any?
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- horsecaptin 9y ago
  Even people who are avid followers constantly get played. My advice if you rarely follow them is to let the news trickle in through reputable channels (WallStreet Journal, The LA Times etc.). Learn about the industry, it's history, the major players, and then try to see how the company you're interested in fits into the picture. There are communities (subreddits) dedicated to those companies and although they are biased, you can also check out the competing company's communities. Try to judge for yourself if you think that the product or service that the company offers adds the market value that their market-cap claims it does. See if you can learn about the company's customers and how they're doing. Hows the economy as a whole doing? What about geo-political / climate situation - how large a role does it play? Then, wait. Let things soak in a little. Keep asking questions. Of course, most people will never do this. I myself am a victim, and let me tell you - I've lost a lot of money by not doing my own homework.

IBM 9y ago

Jim Chanos, a famous short seller known for his Enron short (and who's also shorting Tesla), often refers to the book The Seven Signs of Ethical Collapse by Marianne Jennings [1] when talking about identifying financial frauds. Here's a brief summary of it [2]. It's eerie how many apply to Elon Musk and Tesla. [1] https://www.amazon.com/dp/B008FPVKVA/ https://www.amazon.com/dp/B008FPVKVA/ [2] https://www.scu.edu/ethics/focus-areas/business-ethics/resources/seven-signs-of-ethical-collapse/ https://www.scu.edu/ethics/focus-areas/business-ethics/resou...

dmode 9y ago

Seeking Alpha has been predicting Tesla decline for a decade and had been shorting it's stock. It's a FUD article.

tristanj 9y ago
SA is a blogging platform. SA does not write these articles, independent contributors write them. Forbes and HuffPo have a similar system.
adamlett 9y ago
I'm sure there is legitimate criticism to be levelled at the article, and I would love to read it, so that I can get smarter. But you are merely poisoning the well, effectively preventing a discussion of the article on its merits.

speeq 9y ago

> if one then assumes that Tesla will be able to miraculously achieve a 12% net margin per car (more than Audi does for its A4 series or BMW Given that the "Add Enhanced Autopilot" and "Full self-driving capability" features are basically a $9k software update, I think the Model 3 is going to have some interesting margins once they scale up production.

_Codemonkeyism 9y ago

"And then, as long as 1) wealthy consumers in western nations but also China are eager to seek indulgence by way of green-washing and, 2) are in search of a Steve Jobs replacement persona onto which they can project their hopes for a gleaming future and, 3) are disillusioned with the establishment and its leaders, the company will likely succeed to raise cash again."