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The authors note that shifts in migration patterns follow, rather than precede, shifts in top-rate (but not middle-rate) taxation.
by twoodfin 9y ago
The authors note that shifts in migration patterns follow, rather than precede, shifts in top-rate (but not middle-rate) taxation.
- roenxi 9y agoYeah, but that isn't actually very strong causative evidence. If there is a confounding variable, maybe upending a scientists life and moving states takes longer than than the legislature raising the tax rate. Maybe the tax change compounds the impact of another variable and is followed by their relocation (ie, the tax change contributes to the decision, but isn't the root cause). The point is, "A causes B" is a much stronger statement than "A and B are related". There is solid evidence of a relationship, because the core of their study is a statistical test of correlation. The causative elements here are of a speculative nature, because they didn't gather any data on cause. Cause is being extrapolated from a correlation, which is dangerous thinking. The conclusion here is a good one to be circumspect about.