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You make a good point, but a good percent of the population is swing voters and they do decide elections, in addition to turnout dynamics. All of the movement t
by marcoperaza 9y ago
You make a good point, but a good percent of the population is swing voters and they do decide elections, in addition to turnout dynamics. All of the movement that you see in polls is people shifting their opinions, as well as moving from undecided to a particular preference. Some polls account for intention to vote, but others are of all registered voters, and others even all Americans. They see a lot of movement too.
- winstonewert 9y agoActually, apparently there is some reason to think that a lot of poll movement isn't really people shifting their opinion. Instead, people shift in how willing they are to talk to pollsters. On good news day for your candidate, you are much more likely to be willing to talk to a pollster about it.
- dragonwriter 9y ago> You make a good point, but a good percent of the population is swing voters No, they aren't. Studies have repeatedly shown that US voters have very high party voting consistency, and that those that identify as independents are almost as consistent as those that identify with a party. Turnout and change in composition of the electorate decides elections, more than anything.