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None of the stuff we see today is even remotely advanced enough to "get out of hand". You're exactly right about it being dumb. You're exactly wrong about "cap

None of the stuff we see today is even remotely advanced enough to "get out of hand". You're exactly right about it being dumb. You're exactly wrong about "capsule stuff and open AI announcements taking us very close." There is approximately zero chance of us inventing sentience in a lab over the next five years. Have you had a conversation with a digital assistant lately? Don't believe the hype. It's just hype.

modi15 9y ago
I dont go by the hype. I work in the field and I know whats what. Digital assistants dont work at all and I know exactly why. And I also know that digital assistants which are indistinguishable from an domain specific expert are atmost 2 years away. You can argue that I am going by the hype. Problem is that I am not the only one. Even Elon Musk has expressed similar fears. Most people didnt believe that a nuclear bomb was possible. They had to see a mushroom cloud to get around it. AI has been a dud for the last two decades. It is easy to believe that it will continue being so.
- losteric 9y ago
  Siri promised to be that revolutionary digital assistant. After 7 years of Apple buying startups and spinoffs that make the same promise, Siri is as dumb as ever. Alexa works better because it's "dumber" - a very well trained NLP wrapped around a still largely human-curated rule/knowledge database. I've heard of more realistic dumb systems, but no murmurs suggesting a revolutionary step towards AGI. Elon Musk is a brilliant man that could become an expert on AI... but right now he is not. I trust him about as much as I trust the people that believed the first nuclear bomb would ignite the atmosphere and end all life on Earth - well-meaning concerns without a true understanding of the domain. > AI has been a dud for the last two decades. What? No. We're in the middle of an AI renaissance and I expect nothing less than exponential progress. However, the goal of a digital sapient is still very far away.

modi15 9y ago

I dont go by the hype. I work in the field and I know whats what. Digital assistants dont work at all and I know exactly why. And I also know that digital assistants which are indistinguishable from an domain specific expert are atmost 2 years away. You can argue that I am going by the hype. Problem is that I am not the only one. Even Elon Musk has expressed similar fears. Most people didnt believe that a nuclear bomb was possible. They had to see a mushroom cloud to get around it. AI has been a dud for the last two decades. It is easy to believe that it will continue being so.

losteric 9y ago
Siri promised to be that revolutionary digital assistant. After 7 years of Apple buying startups and spinoffs that make the same promise, Siri is as dumb as ever. Alexa works better because it's "dumber" - a very well trained NLP wrapped around a still largely human-curated rule/knowledge database. I've heard of more realistic dumb systems, but no murmurs suggesting a revolutionary step towards AGI. Elon Musk is a brilliant man that could become an expert on AI... but right now he is not. I trust him about as much as I trust the people that believed the first nuclear bomb would ignite the atmosphere and end all life on Earth - well-meaning concerns without a true understanding of the domain. > AI has been a dud for the last two decades. What? No. We're in the middle of an AI renaissance and I expect nothing less than exponential progress. However, the goal of a digital sapient is still very far away.