2 ms·
The democratisation/commoditization of a technology increases the probability that any given one capability of that technology will be discovered [1]. If what y
by has2k1 9y ago
The democratisation/commoditization of a technology increases the probability that any given one capability of that technology will be discovered [1]. If what you think of as "very hard" is rooted in historical and present capabilities, those with angst on the issue are uncertain how long it will remain "very hard". Given that there is radical change, I do not think that sense of dread is misplaced.
[1] This is no a frivolous statistical argument. It helps establish a lower threshold and when other factors are considered the effect is strictly increased. The are some counter reasons, they help to think about he problem, but they are less convincing.
- bayesian_horse 9y ago"Hard" in evolutionary terms means that there are dozens or hundreds of steps, which are individually very unlikely, compounding to the improbability of them happening. Evolution solves these things by brute force, but only if there is an evolutionary pressure. "Pandemicity" is at best an accident, from an evolutionary standpoint, and so is lethality. Both happening at once, thus, is very hard. An engineer could arrive at a solution faster, given that he knows the steps. But knowing which steps to take is actually the hardest part of synthetic biology.