The 5-year headline is hyperbole. You can't just take the average persons' second-most-valuable asset, declare that it is worthless, then require an additional

The 5-year headline is hyperbole. You can't just take the average persons' second-most-valuable asset, declare that it is worthless, then require an additional fee for them to use your fancy new podmobiles to get to work (on top of still having to pay off the auto loan.) The Economy (tm) won't be able to take it. Therefore, I think the fancy new railcars cannot become dominant faster than (1 average car-loan period) after becoming available. The only way to make it happen faster is if the AI-tomobiles are free for people who still have car loans or the car companies offer to buy back existing cars for $(exactly what's left on the consumer's loan.) So the more reasonable estimate is more like: 5-10 years to availability in (those few special cities) 10 years after that to widespread availability ~5-10 years after that to completely eliminate "the automobile as we know it." Total: 20-30 years. Which includes Bob's "20-years to total conversion" estimate. Let's remember that the first 4G phone came out circa 2008, and now nearly 10 years later, we still don't have anything close to nationwide 4G coverage.