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Considering the history of spoofed messages aimed at manipulating the market, they should have cryptographically signed the message That said - if this is true

by nikcub 9y ago

Considering the history of spoofed messages aimed at manipulating the market, they should have cryptographically signed the message That said - if this is true, they've done the difficult but right thing.

air7 9y ago
Which way would spoofing this message send the market?
- kaffeemitsahne 9y ago
  Same way it's going right now? (up)
  - nikcub 9y ago
    I assumed the same. Mainly because anecdotally the last dozen people I know who were new buyers knew little about the fork and were mainly buying in via the price-news cycle Conversely for those who were following this removes the uncertainty around the fork - the downtime of a couple of days, potential 40-50 minute block times, lost coins, replay attacks, etc.
- nathanasmith 9y ago
  You'd think it would send it down assuming people were buying in anticipating the free coins after the fork. Since there aren't any free coins to get now and assuming that was propping up the recent price rise, why not sell? At least in theory. edit: First three responses to the question all within one minute of each other with all completely different opinions. That's why it's so difficult to predict these things!
- brut 9y ago
  Some people were waiting for the "free money" to come so they could buy "alt coins". Some will be happy to see BTC unchallenged. Price will be a balance of both.
  - jdhn 9y ago
    I'll admit it, I was one of those people. On one hand, no "free money" for me, but on the other hand, I'm willing to accept this because it will hopefully lead to a stronger Bitcoin in the long run.
    - nikcub 9y ago
      If you bought in when the 2x futures began trading you've already made more from the BTC price rise than you would have from the air drop.
  - panarky 9y ago
    Futures on the forked coin were trading north of $1000 earlier today. After the announcement, the price dropped to $1, and has since rebounded to $200. https://imgur.com/a/XOvWS https://imgur.com/a/XOvWS Maybe the $1000 BT2 price wasn't really a bet on free money, but on the prospect that BT2 might replace BTC. If the expectation was that post-fork BTC + BT2 ~= today's BTC, that means that today's BTC price was depressed by this possibility. Now that BT2 is cancelled, the value flows back to BTC.
    - IncRnd 9y ago
      Where is there a market for futures on cryptocoins?
      - panarky 9y ago
        BitMEX, CBOE, Deribit, and others all offer bitcoin futures, with new exchanges appearing all the time. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange says they'll start trading Bitcoin futures by year-end.
        IncRnd 9y ago
        Thank you. I wasn't aware of Chicago Merc. That holds a lot more interest to me than the others. I'll look up your reference to Chicago.
corben 9y ago
This guy is saying he has confirmed it with Mike, one of the signers of the email. https://twitter.com/lopp/status/928310251719405568 https://twitter.com/lopp/status/928310251719405568
- VMG 9y ago
  also https://twitter.com/ErikVoorhees/status/928316364585963520 https://twitter.com/ErikVoorhees/status/928316364585963520 https://twitter.com/wences/status/928311976173948928 https://twitter.com/wences/status/928311976173948928
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
gtrubetskoy 9y ago
It is my understanding that signed messages are generally frowned upon in the Bitcoin community, Satoshi never signed his messages. This is because it is more important what is in the message than who wrote it.
- VMG 9y ago
  > This is because it is more important what is in the message than who wrote it. not in this instance
  - gtrubetskoy 9y ago
    > not in this instance not really. why does it matter that this message is authentic? that 2x _really_ isn't going to happen? it can still happen, and it doesn't matter who posts what online.
    - TD-Linux 9y ago
      Jeff Garzik was the only author of btc1, the primary 2x implementation. For it to survive for any length of time, someone needs to step up and take over code maintainership.
    - s17n 9y ago
      "Who posts what online" is exactly what determines whether or not 2x happens.
- black_puppydog 9y ago
  I am torn between "This is somewhat tautological" and "This (the second sentence) is plain wrong, and the current situation is a perfect example why."
- IncRnd 9y ago
  Satoshi was in favor of digitally signing Bitcoin transactions to provide non-repudiation as an underpinning of Bitcoin ownership. > it is more important what is in the message than who wrote it. That statement actually favors the signing of this textual message, since digital signatures provide integrity control in addition to non-repudiation of origin.

by nikcub 9y ago

air7 9y ago

Which way would spoofing this message send the market?

kaffeemitsahne 9y ago
Same way it's going right now? (up)
- nikcub 9y ago
  I assumed the same. Mainly because anecdotally the last dozen people I know who were new buyers knew little about the fork and were mainly buying in via the price-news cycle Conversely for those who were following this removes the uncertainty around the fork - the downtime of a couple of days, potential 40-50 minute block times, lost coins, replay attacks, etc.
nathanasmith 9y ago
You'd think it would send it down assuming people were buying in anticipating the free coins after the fork. Since there aren't any free coins to get now and assuming that was propping up the recent price rise, why not sell? At least in theory. edit: First three responses to the question all within one minute of each other with all completely different opinions. That's why it's so difficult to predict these things!
brut 9y ago
Some people were waiting for the "free money" to come so they could buy "alt coins". Some will be happy to see BTC unchallenged. Price will be a balance of both.
- jdhn 9y ago
  I'll admit it, I was one of those people. On one hand, no "free money" for me, but on the other hand, I'm willing to accept this because it will hopefully lead to a stronger Bitcoin in the long run.
  - nikcub 9y ago
    If you bought in when the 2x futures began trading you've already made more from the BTC price rise than you would have from the air drop.
- panarky 9y ago
  Futures on the forked coin were trading north of $1000 earlier today. After the announcement, the price dropped to $1, and has since rebounded to $200. https://imgur.com/a/XOvWS https://imgur.com/a/XOvWS Maybe the $1000 BT2 price wasn't really a bet on free money, but on the prospect that BT2 might replace BTC. If the expectation was that post-fork BTC + BT2 ~= today's BTC, that means that today's BTC price was depressed by this possibility. Now that BT2 is cancelled, the value flows back to BTC.
  - IncRnd 9y ago
    Where is there a market for futures on cryptocoins?
    - panarky 9y ago
      BitMEX, CBOE, Deribit, and others all offer bitcoin futures, with new exchanges appearing all the time. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange says they'll start trading Bitcoin futures by year-end.
      - IncRnd 9y ago
        Thank you. I wasn't aware of Chicago Merc. That holds a lot more interest to me than the others. I'll look up your reference to Chicago.

corben 9y ago

This guy is saying he has confirmed it with Mike, one of the signers of the email. https://twitter.com/lopp/status/928310251719405568 https://twitter.com/lopp/status/928310251719405568

VMG 9y ago
also https://twitter.com/ErikVoorhees/status/928316364585963520 https://twitter.com/ErikVoorhees/status/928316364585963520 https://twitter.com/wences/status/928311976173948928 https://twitter.com/wences/status/928311976173948928
deleted 9y ago
[deleted]

gtrubetskoy 9y ago

It is my understanding that signed messages are generally frowned upon in the Bitcoin community, Satoshi never signed his messages. This is because it is more important what is in the message than who wrote it.

VMG 9y ago
> This is because it is more important what is in the message than who wrote it. not in this instance
- gtrubetskoy 9y ago
  > not in this instance not really. why does it matter that this message is authentic? that 2x _really_ isn't going to happen? it can still happen, and it doesn't matter who posts what online.
  - TD-Linux 9y ago
    Jeff Garzik was the only author of btc1, the primary 2x implementation. For it to survive for any length of time, someone needs to step up and take over code maintainership.
  - s17n 9y ago
    "Who posts what online" is exactly what determines whether or not 2x happens.
black_puppydog 9y ago
I am torn between "This is somewhat tautological" and "This (the second sentence) is plain wrong, and the current situation is a perfect example why."
IncRnd 9y ago
Satoshi was in favor of digitally signing Bitcoin transactions to provide non-repudiation as an underpinning of Bitcoin ownership. > it is more important what is in the message than who wrote it. That statement actually favors the signing of this textual message, since digital signatures provide integrity control in addition to non-repudiation of origin.