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I think that is suspect, do you have anything to substantiate that? Heres some actual data, which is very worrisome and is not getting the attention it deserve
by intended 9y ago
I think that is suspect, do you have anything to substantiate that?
Heres some actual data, which is very worrisome and is not getting the attention it deserves
Microfinance data -
>As shown in the table, PAR > 30 days has spiked drastically across most of the states. Compared to the figures for March 31, 2016, Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra registered an incredible increase of nearly 100 times as on 31st March, 2017. States such as Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Gujarat, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka experienced increases between 11% and 22% compared to the much lower pre-demonetisation levels. By 31 December, PAR>30 days had increased from a meagre 0.5% in the previous quarters to around 8%.
http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/jVE367mp7AamTbHD5dG0lK/Demonetisations-blow-to-microfinance-sector.html http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/jVE367mp7AamTbHD5dG0lK/Demon...
This means that money lenders are quite likely going to get stronger, because this suggests very large distress at the bottom of the pyramid.
And This data never shows up in GDP, by definition the unstructured part of the economy is not part of GDP figures.
This has a knock on effect on demand, and therefore on economic growth.
And recent news suggests that MNREGA funds have not been released by many states because they haven;t gotten them from the center.
I think this is imperiling the BJPs chances of survival. I expected some loss of seats in the next election (I know that even the BJP top brass didnt expect a full majority during the last election.) but if these canaries in the coal mine are accurate, it suggests large distress which is still to come down the pipe.