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> Yes, Waymo may capture 100% of the self-driving tech market for a few years, but I don't see it having a sustainable advantage. As soon as another company dev

> Yes, Waymo may capture 100% of the self-driving tech market for a few years, but I don't see it having a sustainable advantage. As soon as another company develops self-driving technology that meets safety standards it can undercut Waymo and capture a significant market share. In 10 years self driving tech will be a commodity product - any car manufacturer/ride hailing company will be able to choose between a half-dozen offerings. This is what I'm most excited about. Currently ride sharing market isn't very competitive because its hard for new entrants to get the network effects going of drivers and passengers. With driverless cars, once the tech is commoditized, any large-ish company could theoretically offer a ride sharing service - it just becomes a financing problem to lease the cars which I believe will allow for more entrants (not mom and pops, but many more corps can jump in). > But car manucturers are still in for long-term pain because their product is also becoming a commodity: nobody cares about the colour or horsepower of the taxi they take to work. Maybe they don't care about color and horsepower but they might care about other features. Comfort, tech bells and whistles, layout (all the seats face inwards with a poker table in the middle), or just straight luxury. On that last point, there are many high end cars that aren't meant to be driven by their owners. The owners are meant to sit in the back and enjoy. I'm still unsure whether net cars will go up or go down, theirs arguments on both sides.

MarkMc 9y ago
> Maybe they don't care about color and horsepower but they might care about other features It's instructive to look at the current offering of ride sharing / taxi / hire-for-a-few-days car companies. Uber offers a choice between a standard car, a luxury car and SUV/minivan. Within each category the market doesn't support much differentiation: if I order a luxury car I expect leather seats but don't really care whether I get a BMW, Lexus or Audi. > I'm still unsure whether net cars will go up or go down, theirs arguments on both sides. It's possible that the number of car miles travelled will double, the number of vehicles produced will be flat, and the total profit of car manufacturers will halve.

MarkMc 9y ago

> Maybe they don't care about color and horsepower but they might care about other features It's instructive to look at the current offering of ride sharing / taxi / hire-for-a-few-days car companies. Uber offers a choice between a standard car, a luxury car and SUV/minivan. Within each category the market doesn't support much differentiation: if I order a luxury car I expect leather seats but don't really care whether I get a BMW, Lexus or Audi. > I'm still unsure whether net cars will go up or go down, theirs arguments on both sides. It's possible that the number of car miles travelled will double, the number of vehicles produced will be flat, and the total profit of car manufacturers will halve.