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Interesting question. Like you, I too believe that a large population may prefer Lyft/Uber type services instead of dealing with the concerns of owning one (e.g

by aecs99 9y ago

Interesting question. Like you, I too believe that a large population may prefer Lyft/Uber type services instead of dealing with the concerns of owning one (e.g., parking, requiring space for parking, insurance, time spent in fueling, maintenance, etc.). However, I tend to think that there still may be a decent size of population who'd prefer owning. Others mentioned the convenience of using cars for storage, being readily available, lower cost of owning, reduced insurances, customizations, etc. Along with these, I believe some other factors exist. In context of self-driving cars, we typically tend to picture urban transportation first. However, there will still be needs for long distance commuting, or taking long trips for pleasure. There will always be places where people frequent less compared to major spots/suburbs in a city. People may not always want to hop into a random car every time they take a trip. The cost/time involved in flagging a car of your choice may not be worth the effort for some. Also, keep in mind that many think of cars as a statement, another way of expressing their beliefs. Take for example, preferring German vs. American vs. Japanese, some prefer minimal space, others may like to exhibit opulence. All in all, there will be a large shift towards not-owning cars, but there may always be a market for owning (at least for a long while).

bamboozled 9y ago
Don’t forget off-road or very remote driving and camper vans.
- wlll 9y ago
  Also, wet dogs, muddy shoes and boots, transporting stuff that makes the car smell etc. etc.
- greedo 9y ago
  And towing boats, or ATVs, or anything that won't fit in a small vehicle. Or going to Costco/Sam's Club and loading up on groceries. Sometimes I think many on HN live in an urban bubble without children, where everything is either ordered online or picked up at a bodega on the corner. For much of the US, life is nothing like that. There's a reason the Ford F-150 has been the most popular selling vehicle in the US for many, many years.
  - Ajedi32 9y ago
    What makes you think you wouldn't be able to summon a self-driving Ford F-150 via the Waymo app? It's not like minivans are the only cars capable of being self-driving.
    - jdminhbg 9y ago
      I think in a lot of places the low population density would mean the F-150 would be 20+ minutes away every time. You might get sick of that and be willing to pay to always have it.
      - Ajedi32 9y ago
        I don't know about that. Imagine for a minute that every car on the road right now were self-driving. How far away do you suppose the nearest pickup truck is from you right now? There may indeed be locations where 20+ minutes is a realistic answer, but I suspect those places are more rare than you think.
        jdminhbg 9y ago
        From me? Only about 50 yards or so. But I don't think you can get to "every car is self-driving" without a pretty high proportion of self-ownership in rural or exurban areas. Lots of people live ~20 minutes from the nearest downtown-ish area, and you can't really serve all those people without a pretty serious wait.
    - greedo 9y ago
      You'll end up a) waiting longer for "uncommon" vehicles, b) paying more than for an L5 econobox stuffed with three other commuter. Minivans are being used in these trials because they can carry multiple people to different destinations. That's the only reason. Minivans suck. Imagine a boat owner. They need an F-150 with a trailer hitch, plus the wiring for the boat trailer's lights. So if they want to move their boat around, they need to wait 20 mins for something they can currently do right now without waiting, without dealing with network outages, with the ability to tow something heavy. Look at the sustained performance of a Tesla S at Nurbergring. Towing takes a lot of torque, and will kill a battery like a Tesla. Plus the car needs to be able to get a bit wet/muddy sometimes.
Ajedi32 9y ago
While there are some valid points there, I think most of those benefits can be realized to some extent without anyone needing to actually "own" any of these cars. > using cars for storage While it's true that you won't be able to just stash all your stuff in a car you don't own forever, I think it's entirely feasible to have a system that lets you rent a car for a day to use in this manner. Obviously not quite as good as owning a car, but you can get a lot of the same benefits in limited circumstances. > being readily available I think under most circumstances shared cars will actually be more "readily available" than a car you own. Once autonomous ridesharing services reach a certain level of market penetration, it's practically guaranteed there'll be a car less than a minute away whenever and wherever you call for one. Plus there's no need to worry about where you parked, whether your car is out for repairs, or whether you can drive home without leaving your friend who hitched a ride with you on the way there stranded without a vehicle. > lower cost of owning Wouldn't a shared vehicle actually cost less, since the cost is split among all the different people using it? > reduced insurances Again, probably be cheaper with shared vehicles, since the driverless car company can self-insure. > customizations Yeah, this you'd probably lose with shared vehicles. No more bumper stickers or vinyl wraps. Though there may still be a way to pick a car of a specific brand or paint job if you so desire.
lyschoening 9y ago
Here in Copenhagen we have a car sharing service called Greenmobility that offers 45 hours of driving for about $190 a month. Electricity, insurance and city-wide parking fees are included and 45 hours a month are sufficient for commuting. The cost of owning a car would be at least thrice what this service costs. A loan on a new car starts at almost $400 a month. The electricity alone would cost a private individual around $100. The inconvenience of having to find a car and being unable to keep it for extended periods is real and may be enough reason for many to want to own a self-driving car, but the cost of owning is certainly higher.

by aecs99 9y ago

bamboozled 9y ago

Don’t forget off-road or very remote driving and camper vans.

wlll 9y ago
Also, wet dogs, muddy shoes and boots, transporting stuff that makes the car smell etc. etc.
greedo 9y ago
And towing boats, or ATVs, or anything that won't fit in a small vehicle. Or going to Costco/Sam's Club and loading up on groceries. Sometimes I think many on HN live in an urban bubble without children, where everything is either ordered online or picked up at a bodega on the corner. For much of the US, life is nothing like that. There's a reason the Ford F-150 has been the most popular selling vehicle in the US for many, many years.
- Ajedi32 9y ago
  What makes you think you wouldn't be able to summon a self-driving Ford F-150 via the Waymo app? It's not like minivans are the only cars capable of being self-driving.
  - jdminhbg 9y ago
    I think in a lot of places the low population density would mean the F-150 would be 20+ minutes away every time. You might get sick of that and be willing to pay to always have it.
    - Ajedi32 9y ago
      I don't know about that. Imagine for a minute that every car on the road right now were self-driving. How far away do you suppose the nearest pickup truck is from you right now? There may indeed be locations where 20+ minutes is a realistic answer, but I suspect those places are more rare than you think.
      - jdminhbg 9y ago
        From me? Only about 50 yards or so. But I don't think you can get to "every car is self-driving" without a pretty high proportion of self-ownership in rural or exurban areas. Lots of people live ~20 minutes from the nearest downtown-ish area, and you can't really serve all those people without a pretty serious wait.
  - greedo 9y ago
    You'll end up a) waiting longer for "uncommon" vehicles, b) paying more than for an L5 econobox stuffed with three other commuter. Minivans are being used in these trials because they can carry multiple people to different destinations. That's the only reason. Minivans suck. Imagine a boat owner. They need an F-150 with a trailer hitch, plus the wiring for the boat trailer's lights. So if they want to move their boat around, they need to wait 20 mins for something they can currently do right now without waiting, without dealing with network outages, with the ability to tow something heavy. Look at the sustained performance of a Tesla S at Nurbergring. Towing takes a lot of torque, and will kill a battery like a Tesla. Plus the car needs to be able to get a bit wet/muddy sometimes.

Ajedi32 9y ago

While there are some valid points there, I think most of those benefits can be realized to some extent without anyone needing to actually "own" any of these cars. > using cars for storage While it's true that you won't be able to just stash all your stuff in a car you don't own forever, I think it's entirely feasible to have a system that lets you rent a car for a day to use in this manner. Obviously not quite as good as owning a car, but you can get a lot of the same benefits in limited circumstances. > being readily available I think under most circumstances shared cars will actually be more "readily available" than a car you own. Once autonomous ridesharing services reach a certain level of market penetration, it's practically guaranteed there'll be a car less than a minute away whenever and wherever you call for one. Plus there's no need to worry about where you parked, whether your car is out for repairs, or whether you can drive home without leaving your friend who hitched a ride with you on the way there stranded without a vehicle. > lower cost of owning Wouldn't a shared vehicle actually cost less, since the cost is split among all the different people using it? > reduced insurances Again, probably be cheaper with shared vehicles, since the driverless car company can self-insure. > customizations Yeah, this you'd probably lose with shared vehicles. No more bumper stickers or vinyl wraps. Though there may still be a way to pick a car of a specific brand or paint job if you so desire.

lyschoening 9y ago

Here in Copenhagen we have a car sharing service called Greenmobility that offers 45 hours of driving for about $190 a month. Electricity, insurance and city-wide parking fees are included and 45 hours a month are sufficient for commuting. The cost of owning a car would be at least thrice what this service costs. A loan on a new car starts at almost $400 a month. The electricity alone would cost a private individual around $100. The inconvenience of having to find a car and being unable to keep it for extended periods is real and may be enough reason for many to want to own a self-driving car, but the cost of owning is certainly higher.