4 ms·

This, indeed, is a major step for Waymo. While some people may be skeptical about the safety of these rides, we all saw this coming. This has been a part of the

by aecs99 9y ago

This, indeed, is a major step for Waymo. While some people may be skeptical about the safety of these rides, we all saw this coming. This has been a part of the ambitious goal most self-driving companies set out when they start. The reason I say "part of the goal", is because the end goal is L5 - to handle more complex scenarios which I assume Waymo is still working on. Taking the ninety-ninety rule or the rule of credibility into consideration, the remaining 10% of development will probably take 90% of the time. By this, I mean that reaching a stage where L5 cars are owned by consumers can take a long time (if at all people want to buy instead of sharing, but that's a separate topic). For example, running this project in Pittsburgh, Boston, or SF is much more difficult than in suburbs of Arizona. Conditions with rain, snow, uneven terrain, high population density are still difficult to handle. Several challenges still remain, from both technical and legal perspectives. However, any of that may not undermine the tremendous opportunities for Waymo (or its partners). There are several areas/markets that are ready for this technology (e.g., ride sharing in suburbs, transportation of non-dangerous goods over passengers, etc.)

peoplewindow 9y ago
Why would self-ownership ever be the goal though? I can see people just moving en-masse to Lyft/Uber type services that use a mix of people and machines, with people eventually being phased out, and simply giving up their own cars (except for those who genuinely enjoy driving).
- milesokeefe 9y ago
  Immediate access to the vehicle and monetary returns from renting it out when not using it.
  - robotresearcher 9y ago
    Those goals interfere with each other.
- visarga 9y ago
  By combining SDC with electric I think the cost of owning a car could be lowered significantly.
- ghaff 9y ago
  As many have said here before, it really depends on the use case. Many have cars customized for various activities. They also essentially use their cars as mobile storage lockers--especially parents with children. The way some people use vehicles in a handful of dense cities is utterly unrepresentative of how most people use their cars and trucks. To the degree that vehicle depreciation is more miles-based than time-based, it's not even clear how much driving up utilization past a certain base usage really helps financially.
- ElijahLynn 9y ago
  Keeping your stuff in the car. Kinda nice not to have to unload/load for every ride.
  - sirclueless 9y ago
    There is certainly a lot of comfort in knowing the car will be exactly where you left it last night so you can load your kids up to go to school, go to the hospital, evacuate in an emergency etc. Also, cars are status symbols. Everyone has a phone with a clock on it, but watches still haven't disappeared entirely. Going driverless won't suddenly convince everyone to stop liking their cars and prefer generic Uber vehicles.
    - ghaff 9y ago
      Even if it's not a status thing you buy vehicles with the features you want, equip them for outdoor sports, store gear in them, etc. And, as you say, if I really need a vehicle in a hurry because of an emergency or just because I'm running late I really don't want to fiddle with a mobile app.
      - robotresearcher 9y ago
        Yes, I prefer that too. But do I prefer it by tens of thousands of dollars? Maybe not.
        ghaff 9y ago
        All the mileage-related costs are still there though. You're probably overestimating the degree to which simple age (and time value of money) dominates car cost. It is admittedly greater in states with snow--and hence salt on the roads in the winter.
- aecs99 9y ago
  Interesting question. Like you, I too believe that a large population may prefer Lyft/Uber type services instead of dealing with the concerns of owning one (e.g., parking, requiring space for parking, insurance, time spent in fueling, maintenance, etc.). However, I tend to think that there still may be a decent size of population who'd prefer owning. Others mentioned the convenience of using cars for storage, being readily available, lower cost of owning, reduced insurances, customizations, etc. Along with these, I believe some other factors exist. In context of self-driving cars, we typically tend to picture urban transportation first. However, there will still be needs for long distance commuting, or taking long trips for pleasure. There will always be places where people frequent less compared to major spots/suburbs in a city. People may not always want to hop into a random car every time they take a trip. The cost/time involved in flagging a car of your choice may not be worth the effort for some. Also, keep in mind that many think of cars as a statement, another way of expressing their beliefs. Take for example, preferring German vs. American vs. Japanese, some prefer minimal space, others may like to exhibit opulence. All in all, there will be a large shift towards not-owning cars, but there may always be a market for owning (at least for a long while).
  - bamboozled 9y ago
    Don’t forget off-road or very remote driving and camper vans.
    - wlll 9y ago
      Also, wet dogs, muddy shoes and boots, transporting stuff that makes the car smell etc. etc.
    - greedo 9y ago
      And towing boats, or ATVs, or anything that won't fit in a small vehicle. Or going to Costco/Sam's Club and loading up on groceries. Sometimes I think many on HN live in an urban bubble without children, where everything is either ordered online or picked up at a bodega on the corner. For much of the US, life is nothing like that. There's a reason the Ford F-150 has been the most popular selling vehicle in the US for many, many years.
- djsumdog 9y ago
  You can't have self-ownership. It's not remotely possible due to the safety considerations. Self driving cars need to have more oversight than FAA/aircraft. Even with self driving vehicles, America will still have terrible traffic. If anything, self driving vehicles will make things even worse, instead of America finally fixing its broken/non-existent mass transit system. I wrote about this a while back. Basically even if you only had self-driving vehicles on an interstate, all of them filled to 4 people each, travelling at 120km, you still couldn't even get to the fraction of the capacity of a single rail line running at 5 minute intervals: http://penguindreams.org/blog/self-driving-cars-will-not-solve-the-transportation-problem/ http://penguindreams.org/blog/self-driving-cars-will-not-sol...
  - ghaff 9y ago
    If you can't own (or lease, but that's just a financing variant) a self-driving car, the concept is going to be basically a non-starter. People who already take taxis/Uber/Lyft/etc. will appreciate a 50% cut or so in rates but anyone else who already drives a car daily will just pass for most of the same reasons they own a car today.
    - jacksmith21006 9y ago
      Do not agree. Habits will change as it will be cheap. My kids already are very, very comfortable using Uber where me and my wife are like let's take our car.
      - gambiting 9y ago
        It would be far cheaper for me to take Uber to work every single day than pay for my car + fuel + maintenance + insurance. Like....half of what I pay a month if not more. Yet having the car for my own personal use whenever I want is still worth the premium IMHO.
      - greedo 9y ago
        Are your kids paying for Uber out of their own pocket? If not, then their opinion about the financial side is moot. My kids love to be chaeuffered about by me.

by aecs99 9y ago

peoplewindow 9y ago

Why would self-ownership ever be the goal though? I can see people just moving en-masse to Lyft/Uber type services that use a mix of people and machines, with people eventually being phased out, and simply giving up their own cars (except for those who genuinely enjoy driving).

milesokeefe 9y ago
Immediate access to the vehicle and monetary returns from renting it out when not using it.
- robotresearcher 9y ago
  Those goals interfere with each other.
visarga 9y ago
By combining SDC with electric I think the cost of owning a car could be lowered significantly.
ghaff 9y ago
As many have said here before, it really depends on the use case. Many have cars customized for various activities. They also essentially use their cars as mobile storage lockers--especially parents with children. The way some people use vehicles in a handful of dense cities is utterly unrepresentative of how most people use their cars and trucks. To the degree that vehicle depreciation is more miles-based than time-based, it's not even clear how much driving up utilization past a certain base usage really helps financially.
ElijahLynn 9y ago
Keeping your stuff in the car. Kinda nice not to have to unload/load for every ride.
- sirclueless 9y ago
  There is certainly a lot of comfort in knowing the car will be exactly where you left it last night so you can load your kids up to go to school, go to the hospital, evacuate in an emergency etc. Also, cars are status symbols. Everyone has a phone with a clock on it, but watches still haven't disappeared entirely. Going driverless won't suddenly convince everyone to stop liking their cars and prefer generic Uber vehicles.
  - ghaff 9y ago
    Even if it's not a status thing you buy vehicles with the features you want, equip them for outdoor sports, store gear in them, etc. And, as you say, if I really need a vehicle in a hurry because of an emergency or just because I'm running late I really don't want to fiddle with a mobile app.
    - robotresearcher 9y ago
      Yes, I prefer that too. But do I prefer it by tens of thousands of dollars? Maybe not.
      - ghaff 9y ago
        All the mileage-related costs are still there though. You're probably overestimating the degree to which simple age (and time value of money) dominates car cost. It is admittedly greater in states with snow--and hence salt on the roads in the winter.
aecs99 9y ago
Interesting question. Like you, I too believe that a large population may prefer Lyft/Uber type services instead of dealing with the concerns of owning one (e.g., parking, requiring space for parking, insurance, time spent in fueling, maintenance, etc.). However, I tend to think that there still may be a decent size of population who'd prefer owning. Others mentioned the convenience of using cars for storage, being readily available, lower cost of owning, reduced insurances, customizations, etc. Along with these, I believe some other factors exist. In context of self-driving cars, we typically tend to picture urban transportation first. However, there will still be needs for long distance commuting, or taking long trips for pleasure. There will always be places where people frequent less compared to major spots/suburbs in a city. People may not always want to hop into a random car every time they take a trip. The cost/time involved in flagging a car of your choice may not be worth the effort for some. Also, keep in mind that many think of cars as a statement, another way of expressing their beliefs. Take for example, preferring German vs. American vs. Japanese, some prefer minimal space, others may like to exhibit opulence. All in all, there will be a large shift towards not-owning cars, but there may always be a market for owning (at least for a long while).
- bamboozled 9y ago
  Don’t forget off-road or very remote driving and camper vans.
  - wlll 9y ago
    Also, wet dogs, muddy shoes and boots, transporting stuff that makes the car smell etc. etc.
  - greedo 9y ago
    And towing boats, or ATVs, or anything that won't fit in a small vehicle. Or going to Costco/Sam's Club and loading up on groceries. Sometimes I think many on HN live in an urban bubble without children, where everything is either ordered online or picked up at a bodega on the corner. For much of the US, life is nothing like that. There's a reason the Ford F-150 has been the most popular selling vehicle in the US for many, many years.
djsumdog 9y ago
You can't have self-ownership. It's not remotely possible due to the safety considerations. Self driving cars need to have more oversight than FAA/aircraft. Even with self driving vehicles, America will still have terrible traffic. If anything, self driving vehicles will make things even worse, instead of America finally fixing its broken/non-existent mass transit system. I wrote about this a while back. Basically even if you only had self-driving vehicles on an interstate, all of them filled to 4 people each, travelling at 120km, you still couldn't even get to the fraction of the capacity of a single rail line running at 5 minute intervals: http://penguindreams.org/blog/self-driving-cars-will-not-solve-the-transportation-problem/ http://penguindreams.org/blog/self-driving-cars-will-not-sol...
- ghaff 9y ago
  If you can't own (or lease, but that's just a financing variant) a self-driving car, the concept is going to be basically a non-starter. People who already take taxis/Uber/Lyft/etc. will appreciate a 50% cut or so in rates but anyone else who already drives a car daily will just pass for most of the same reasons they own a car today.
  - jacksmith21006 9y ago
    Do not agree. Habits will change as it will be cheap. My kids already are very, very comfortable using Uber where me and my wife are like let's take our car.
    - gambiting 9y ago
      It would be far cheaper for me to take Uber to work every single day than pay for my car + fuel + maintenance + insurance. Like....half of what I pay a month if not more. Yet having the car for my own personal use whenever I want is still worth the premium IMHO.
    - greedo 9y ago
      Are your kids paying for Uber out of their own pocket? If not, then their opinion about the financial side is moot. My kids love to be chaeuffered about by me.