It's certainly not a winner take all market, the world is a big place and it would be ridiculously capital-intensive to deploy everywhere before anyone else has

It's certainly not a winner take all market, the world is a big place and it would be ridiculously capital-intensive to deploy everywhere before anyone else has a shot. Though we could very well end up seeing regional monopolies where a single fleet provider dominates in a given city. Uber is working hard to develop autonomous vehicles, but I don't think they need to worry about getting usurped by a competitors robotaxis near term. Uber's biggest future markets are in the developing world, particularly fast growing metropolises where transit infrastructure can't grow to meet demand. In places like Lagos, Dhaka, Delhi, Jakarta or Karachi it will be a long time before robotaxis can handle that level of chaos, or compete with low-cost human labour in those markets. Overwhelmed and cash strapped governments in these places are more than happy to let a private operator such as Uber handle transit. (interesting article on that: https://thebolditalic.com/ubers-goal-is-not-to-operate-alongside-public-transit-but-to-replace-it-c76e48d8d317 https://thebolditalic.com/ubers-goal-is-not-to-operate-along...) Regarding OEM's, well, some are doing better than others. GM subsidiary Cruise Automation has some real inertia. While Waymo is first to hit this milestone, I'm betting Cruise will be the first to deploy 100k robotaxis. Waymo doesn't make cars, and doesn't have any sort of manufacturing partnership on lock-down. With these FCA Pacifica's Waymo basically just bought them and retrofitted the autonomous hardware themselves. It's not clear if the so-called partnership will go any further than that. In a few years maybe one or several of the OEM's will throw up their arms and say "This is too hard, I give up", and that will be Waymo's opportunity to pounce, though they'll likely be competing with intel/mobileye, who are a little behind but entertain aspirations of becoming an open provider of autonomous hardware and software, and have a lot of money to spend.