12 ms·

I risk to devolve this into a flame war, but I think it would be a good idea to wait what Muellers investigation finds with regard to influences on the presiden

by sgift 9y ago

I risk to devolve this into a flame war, but I think it would be a good idea to wait what Muellers investigation finds with regard to influences on the presidential election, so money spend by third parties to help get someone elected can be attributed to the corresponding campaign.

drawnwren 9y ago
You are correct. This information would be useful, but surely we can't limit it to just one other country and one campaign?
- chc 9y ago
  Unless you have some amazing new information, one country and one campaign is about as bold as it seems reasonable to be.
  - plussed_reader 9y ago
    I hear there might be Paradise on the horizon...
- eksu 9y ago
  Surely we shouldn’t investigate every country in the world in regards to every election we’ve had?
  - drawnwren 9y ago
    In fact, we do this already. The thing you're describing is commonly referred to as intelligence.
Alex3917 9y ago
> I think it would be a good idea to wait what Muellers investigation finds with regard to influences on the presidential election Right now Russian companies are only alleged to have spent a few million dollars, so it's not clear that the investigation will show any material impact on the spending ratios.
- heartbreak 9y ago
  Actually Rosneft is alleged to have given 19.5% of its shares in exchange for reducing sanctions against Russia. And by alleged I mean that's what the Steele dossier alleges [0], and 19.5% of Rosneft was sold to a yet to be named buyer in November of last year [1]. That's billions of dollars that a Russian company allegedly spent on the election. [0] http://www.businessinsider.com/carter-page-trump-russia-igor-sechin-dossier-2017-1 http://www.businessinsider.com/carter-page-trump-russia-igor... [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-rosneft-privatisation-insight/how-russia-sold-its-oil-jewel-without-saying-who-bought-it-idUSKBN1582OH https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-rosneft-privatisat...
  - Alex3917 9y ago
    Unless they sold that equity and used the money to buy ads, that's not really relevant. The allegations about Trump's digital team being mainly a money laundering operation would potentially be more impactful, but if proven true it would ironically cast doubt on whether they were designed to GOTV.
    - heartbreak 9y ago
      Relevant in what way? You were discussing alleged spend by Russian companies interfering with the election. You didn't specify that the spend specifically needed to be on mass media. Paying for campaign staff, ad buys, etc. with dark money isn't a new thing. I don't see why that'd be out of the realm of possibility for the Trump campaign when "normal" campaigns get caught spending dark money.
JPKab 9y ago
No flame war here, but as someone who has friends and family in Appalachia and middle America who voted for Trump, I tire of the "Trump won, and we didn't foresee it, so it must have been Russia tricking stupid, dumb rednecks into voting for him" narrative. I dislike it because if Hillary had won, nobody would be looking into this at all. They would simply accept that in a free republic, policing what people hear is impossible, and you have to just trust the voters to not be fucking morons. But she didn't win, so we on the collective left have decided we can't trust voters to not be morons, and need to clamp down on the source of these people's misinformation. Does anyone here know a single person who switched their vote from Hillary to Trump? I don't. Trump didn't magically get votes that Romney didn't. Instead, the data shows that Hillary didn't get black voters to turnout in the numbers that Obama did. She got them to turnout in the numbers that John Kerry did, and subsequently lost. Is this because she's white, and a significant minority of black people who voted for Obama simply choose not to participate when a non-black candidate is nominated by the Democrats? Nobody has the guts to ask that question. We on the left need to get off of the "Trump stole the election with Russia's help" narrative, and get on the "Hillary doubled Trump's spending, had 5 times as much campaign staff, and according to Donna Brazille hijacked the DNC and the primaries, and still lost" narrative. We have two corrupt political parties in this country, not one. And both sides act like the other party is the only one.
- calimac 9y ago
  Good point, you're right on. It amazes me how otherwise intelligent people can think so illogically consequently creating an echo chamber drawing in an entire segment tech culture. There are redpills amongst us but, for the most part, they remain silent. Scott Adams of Dilbert articulates this phenomenon well.
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- cvwright 9y ago
  > Trump didn't magically get votes that Romney didn't. Instead, the data shows that Hillary didn't get black voters to turnout in the numbers that Obama did. It was even worse than that (for HRC and the Dems). Did she even visit Wisconsin during the campaign? Also there are reports that Trump received a higher fraction of the black vote than Romney got.
njarboe 9y ago
Seems like this should be a Sputnik moment for the US if the Russian understanding and execution on social networks are so superior to our own that low six figure spending budgets can have any significant influence when hundreds (thousands?) of other entities are spending much more. Anyone have a good source for an estimate of how much corporations and individuals spent on political advertising last election cycle?

by sgift 9y ago

drawnwren 9y ago

You are correct. This information would be useful, but surely we can't limit it to just one other country and one campaign?

chc 9y ago
Unless you have some amazing new information, one country and one campaign is about as bold as it seems reasonable to be.
- plussed_reader 9y ago
  I hear there might be Paradise on the horizon...
eksu 9y ago
Surely we shouldn’t investigate every country in the world in regards to every election we’ve had?
- drawnwren 9y ago
  In fact, we do this already. The thing you're describing is commonly referred to as intelligence.

Alex3917 9y ago

> I think it would be a good idea to wait what Muellers investigation finds with regard to influences on the presidential election Right now Russian companies are only alleged to have spent a few million dollars, so it's not clear that the investigation will show any material impact on the spending ratios.

heartbreak 9y ago
Actually Rosneft is alleged to have given 19.5% of its shares in exchange for reducing sanctions against Russia. And by alleged I mean that's what the Steele dossier alleges [0], and 19.5% of Rosneft was sold to a yet to be named buyer in November of last year [1]. That's billions of dollars that a Russian company allegedly spent on the election. [0] http://www.businessinsider.com/carter-page-trump-russia-igor-sechin-dossier-2017-1 http://www.businessinsider.com/carter-page-trump-russia-igor... [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-rosneft-privatisation-insight/how-russia-sold-its-oil-jewel-without-saying-who-bought-it-idUSKBN1582OH https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-rosneft-privatisat...
- Alex3917 9y ago
  Unless they sold that equity and used the money to buy ads, that's not really relevant. The allegations about Trump's digital team being mainly a money laundering operation would potentially be more impactful, but if proven true it would ironically cast doubt on whether they were designed to GOTV.
  - heartbreak 9y ago
    Relevant in what way? You were discussing alleged spend by Russian companies interfering with the election. You didn't specify that the spend specifically needed to be on mass media. Paying for campaign staff, ad buys, etc. with dark money isn't a new thing. I don't see why that'd be out of the realm of possibility for the Trump campaign when "normal" campaigns get caught spending dark money.

JPKab 9y ago

No flame war here, but as someone who has friends and family in Appalachia and middle America who voted for Trump, I tire of the "Trump won, and we didn't foresee it, so it must have been Russia tricking stupid, dumb rednecks into voting for him" narrative. I dislike it because if Hillary had won, nobody would be looking into this at all. They would simply accept that in a free republic, policing what people hear is impossible, and you have to just trust the voters to not be fucking morons. But she didn't win, so we on the collective left have decided we can't trust voters to not be morons, and need to clamp down on the source of these people's misinformation. Does anyone here know a single person who switched their vote from Hillary to Trump? I don't. Trump didn't magically get votes that Romney didn't. Instead, the data shows that Hillary didn't get black voters to turnout in the numbers that Obama did. She got them to turnout in the numbers that John Kerry did, and subsequently lost. Is this because she's white, and a significant minority of black people who voted for Obama simply choose not to participate when a non-black candidate is nominated by the Democrats? Nobody has the guts to ask that question. We on the left need to get off of the "Trump stole the election with Russia's help" narrative, and get on the "Hillary doubled Trump's spending, had 5 times as much campaign staff, and according to Donna Brazille hijacked the DNC and the primaries, and still lost" narrative. We have two corrupt political parties in this country, not one. And both sides act like the other party is the only one.

calimac 9y ago
Good point, you're right on. It amazes me how otherwise intelligent people can think so illogically consequently creating an echo chamber drawing in an entire segment tech culture. There are redpills amongst us but, for the most part, they remain silent. Scott Adams of Dilbert articulates this phenomenon well.
deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
cvwright 9y ago
> Trump didn't magically get votes that Romney didn't. Instead, the data shows that Hillary didn't get black voters to turnout in the numbers that Obama did. It was even worse than that (for HRC and the Dems). Did she even visit Wisconsin during the campaign? Also there are reports that Trump received a higher fraction of the black vote than Romney got.

njarboe 9y ago

Seems like this should be a Sputnik moment for the US if the Russian understanding and execution on social networks are so superior to our own that low six figure spending budgets can have any significant influence when hundreds (thousands?) of other entities are spending much more. Anyone have a good source for an estimate of how much corporations and individuals spent on political advertising last election cycle?