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Yep. Kurzweil has been banging this drum for a long time. I read Spiritual Machines a long time ago and found it to be a simple rehash of 90s-Extropian tropes -

by _jal 9y ago

Yep. Kurzweil has been banging this drum for a long time. I read Spiritual Machines a long time ago and found it to be a simple rehash of 90s-Extropian tropes - utility fog, uploads, all the goodies needed to glue science-fiction nerdbait to a thin rehash of Christian rebirth millenarianism. The book went away in one of my periodic purges, or I'd check to see if he changed his dates.

tim333 9y ago
You can check most of the predictions / dates on Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil#The_Age_of_Spiritual_Machines_.281999.29 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzwe... 2009 "Artificial voices sound fully human" seems a bit optimistic. as does 2019 "Household robots are ubiquitous and reliable."
- r3bl 9y ago
  Well, sure, but... 2009 "Though desktop PCs are still common for data storage, individuals primarily use portable devices for their computer-related tasks." sounds pretty realistic now. So does 2019 "People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet." with the current progress of AR and VR (although it might be a few years late). My point is, you've nitpicked this in a series of predictions which may or may not be true. Kurzweil's betting a lot on 2045 and AGI, and hoping that 2029 will help him reach that age. The rest is a mix of possibly true predictions that seem absurd, like the two I've pointed out.
  - tim333 9y ago
    Yeah I picked a couple of ones that didn't seem quite there. For me the most interesting prediction has been 2029 for the Turing test which he's been saying since 2000 or so. The hardware seems pretty much on track. It will be interesting to see if the software gets sorted in the next 12 years or not.
  - petraeus 9y ago
    Though desktop PCs are still common for data storage, individuals primarily use portable devices for their computer-related tasks .. is patently fals, we are nowhere close to "using" our handheld devices for the majority of computer related tasks. Portable devices are in most cases used to consume media.
    - oxide 9y ago
      Unless you do not have a PC. A decent phone IS the PC in some homes.

by _jal 9y ago

tim333 9y ago

You can check most of the predictions / dates on Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil#The_Age_of_Spiritual_Machines_.281999.29 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzwe... 2009 "Artificial voices sound fully human" seems a bit optimistic. as does 2019 "Household robots are ubiquitous and reliable."

r3bl 9y ago
Well, sure, but... 2009 "Though desktop PCs are still common for data storage, individuals primarily use portable devices for their computer-related tasks." sounds pretty realistic now. So does 2019 "People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet." with the current progress of AR and VR (although it might be a few years late). My point is, you've nitpicked this in a series of predictions which may or may not be true. Kurzweil's betting a lot on 2045 and AGI, and hoping that 2029 will help him reach that age. The rest is a mix of possibly true predictions that seem absurd, like the two I've pointed out.
- tim333 9y ago
  Yeah I picked a couple of ones that didn't seem quite there. For me the most interesting prediction has been 2029 for the Turing test which he's been saying since 2000 or so. The hardware seems pretty much on track. It will be interesting to see if the software gets sorted in the next 12 years or not.
- petraeus 9y ago
  Though desktop PCs are still common for data storage, individuals primarily use portable devices for their computer-related tasks .. is patently fals, we are nowhere close to "using" our handheld devices for the majority of computer related tasks. Portable devices are in most cases used to consume media.
  - oxide 9y ago
    Unless you do not have a PC. A decent phone IS the PC in some homes.