But the point is that it's not FUD if doubt is the correct default position, the situation is in fact uncertain, there is no reasonable way for you to resolve t

But the point is that it's not FUD if doubt is the correct default position, the situation is in fact uncertain, there is no reasonable way for you to resolve the uncertainty, and fear is justified in the face of that uncertainty. FUD is when you deliberately avoid getting an accurate picture of the uncertainty/danger so as to paint as bleak a picture as possible and thus induce gratuitous fear.