3 ms·

Your reasoning seems to contradict itself, it's a very complex black box of limited internals yet you were able to still easily glean big winners? Stock pickin

Your reasoning seems to contradict itself, it's a very complex black box of limited internals yet you were able to still easily glean big winners? Stock picking is the same as gambling, you look for value and try overtime to beat the market. Also like gambling is how people remember and talk about their wins but forget/ignore their losses.

Danihan 9y ago
Because I don't look at the internals, I look at the outcomes. Eg - Everyone using google, everyone eating at Chipotle, everyone being addicted to cell phones, etc.
- martijndwars 9y ago
  Picking stocks based on "everyone uses..." is a great example of a bubble. What about all the companies that are not consumer facing?
  - prewett 9y ago
    A bubble is "everyone buying because everyone knows someone will buy even higher." "Everyone uses..." is a great example of a revenue generator. I assume you are meaning that you buying based on popularity of places you frequent is an example of an echo chamber? Regarding non-consumer facing companies, I don't see what the problem is. If you have no information about the company, then it's gambling to buy it. So you miss out on some companies, no big deal. Most people only have enough money to make a few bets, so you should bet on what you know about. It's not like a test where you lose points if you don't answer a question; you don't lose money if you don't buy a stock you don't know about.
charlesdm 9y ago
Think about it differently though. He didn't really pick stocks, he picked well established products or brands that started doing or (despite a correction) continued to do well. If the market would crash 30-50% tomorrow, which stocks would you buy? Probably Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, and the likes. Everyone has losses, and you can't always be right. But within your area of expertise or interests, you should probably be able to pick a few good stocks of good companies because you actually care and understand how they operate. But to do it structurally and consistently is harder. I'm sure someone will reply bullshit, but that's at least what I believe. The market isn't efficient.

Danihan 9y ago

Because I don't look at the internals, I look at the outcomes. Eg - Everyone using google, everyone eating at Chipotle, everyone being addicted to cell phones, etc.

martijndwars 9y ago
Picking stocks based on "everyone uses..." is a great example of a bubble. What about all the companies that are not consumer facing?
- prewett 9y ago
  A bubble is "everyone buying because everyone knows someone will buy even higher." "Everyone uses..." is a great example of a revenue generator. I assume you are meaning that you buying based on popularity of places you frequent is an example of an echo chamber? Regarding non-consumer facing companies, I don't see what the problem is. If you have no information about the company, then it's gambling to buy it. So you miss out on some companies, no big deal. Most people only have enough money to make a few bets, so you should bet on what you know about. It's not like a test where you lose points if you don't answer a question; you don't lose money if you don't buy a stock you don't know about.

charlesdm 9y ago

Think about it differently though. He didn't really pick stocks, he picked well established products or brands that started doing or (despite a correction) continued to do well. If the market would crash 30-50% tomorrow, which stocks would you buy? Probably Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, and the likes. Everyone has losses, and you can't always be right. But within your area of expertise or interests, you should probably be able to pick a few good stocks of good companies because you actually care and understand how they operate. But to do it structurally and consistently is harder. I'm sure someone will reply bullshit, but that's at least what I believe. The market isn't efficient.