5 ms·

The same thing happened to me. I had lost 2M in bad deals. "The illusion of control, overestimate your risk" and failure to understand "probability", the tail r

The same thing happened to me. I had lost 2M in bad deals. "The illusion of control, overestimate your risk" and failure to understand "probability", the tail risk was responsible for my ruin.

tixocloud 9y ago
I'm sorry for your loss. It must hurt pretty bad. Would you say lack of transparency around what the markets are doing has been a contributing factor not being able to assess risk appropriately?
- sillysaurus3 9y ago
  It's speculation. It can always go badly, no matter how much transparency there is.
tryingagainbro 9y ago
2 mil was all you had, more or less? Must've been devastating. You could live like a king in a lot of places with $2mil...almost for life. Not in NYC but the world has a lot of countries
- nathan_f77 9y ago
  You can retire comfortably almost anywhere with $2M. 3% is an extremely safe "withdrawal rate" if you invest the money in index funds, and that gives you an annual income of $60k. That's a solid middle-class income anywhere in the US, and luxury in South-East Asia.
  - ChuckMcM 9y ago
    Apropos of nothing, health care before age 65 in the US (prior to the ACA, and possibly again) peaked at about $36K/year (age 64). That leaves you with $24K of your $60K to live on. Not saying it isn't doable, but it isn't as much as it once was. All I'm saying is that retirement planning is a bit weird because if you do it when you're 20 you might miss some expenses that older people have that you are not yet aware of :-)
    - tryingagainbro 9y ago
      peaked at about $36K/year So leave USA for a while or forever, if you need to pay $3000 a MONTH for insurance. WTF? Unless you have a very, very specific disease everything will be solved in many other countries, at a lot less. By paying cash if needed.
      - ChuckMcM 9y ago
        Its one of the options that people talk about, in particular moving to Canada. My in-laws moved to Brazil not only for lower health care costs but it was less expensive to hire in home care giving staff. That makes visits from the grandchildren and family more difficult though. Something that can be important in your later years.
        pdimitar 9y ago
        I can tell you that most Europe will fix you up for much lower rates than USA -- heard that from people in the Baltic countries, Netherlands, Belgium, Poland and a few others. In my country -- Bulgaria -- I recall somebody on the news saying they pulled their US cousin in here and they got a complex multi-phase operational treatments (not good with medical English, sorry!) with 3 months of hospitalization... for a sum of money that would equal 1 week in hospital in USA plus only the first operation (out of 4-6). Medical tourism is becoming a thing here in Europe.
      - noonespecial 9y ago
        Having to pay $3k per month for health reasons sounds like the very disaster buying health insurance was supposed to guard against. If that $3k were paying a mortgage debt, it would be servicing more than $600,000!
        tryingagainbro 9y ago
        If that $3k were paying a mortgage debt, it would be servicing more than $600,000! Sadly, $600K is nothing in healthcare costs, at least retail price. A snake bite can cost $153K https://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/21/hospital-appears-to-charge-153000-to-treat-snakebite.html https://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/21/hospital-appears-to-charge-1... https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rattlesnake-selfie-results-in-a-153k-medical-bill/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rattlesnake-selfie-results-in-a...
- xstartup 9y ago
  I went into serious depression for a month after that. That was not all money. I've more in saving which I don't touch. Honestly, I don't know what 2M buys because I've never spent any significant amount of money on anything. I don't know how much 2M is, all I know is that I had worked 2 years for that money. Whenever I remember that 2 years worth of my efforts has been flushed down the drain, it makes me sad.
  - IAmGraydon 9y ago
    I'm loving the humblebrag in this post.

The same thing happened to me. I had lost 2M in bad deals. "The illusion of control, overestimate your risk" and failure to understand "probability", the tail risk was responsible for my ruin.

tixocloud 9y ago

I'm sorry for your loss. It must hurt pretty bad. Would you say lack of transparency around what the markets are doing has been a contributing factor not being able to assess risk appropriately?

sillysaurus3 9y ago
It's speculation. It can always go badly, no matter how much transparency there is.

tryingagainbro 9y ago

2 mil was all you had, more or less? Must've been devastating. You could live like a king in a lot of places with $2mil...almost for life. Not in NYC but the world has a lot of countries

nathan_f77 9y ago
You can retire comfortably almost anywhere with $2M. 3% is an extremely safe "withdrawal rate" if you invest the money in index funds, and that gives you an annual income of $60k. That's a solid middle-class income anywhere in the US, and luxury in South-East Asia.
- ChuckMcM 9y ago
  Apropos of nothing, health care before age 65 in the US (prior to the ACA, and possibly again) peaked at about $36K/year (age 64). That leaves you with $24K of your $60K to live on. Not saying it isn't doable, but it isn't as much as it once was. All I'm saying is that retirement planning is a bit weird because if you do it when you're 20 you might miss some expenses that older people have that you are not yet aware of :-)
  - tryingagainbro 9y ago
    peaked at about $36K/year So leave USA for a while or forever, if you need to pay $3000 a MONTH for insurance. WTF? Unless you have a very, very specific disease everything will be solved in many other countries, at a lot less. By paying cash if needed.
    - ChuckMcM 9y ago
      Its one of the options that people talk about, in particular moving to Canada. My in-laws moved to Brazil not only for lower health care costs but it was less expensive to hire in home care giving staff. That makes visits from the grandchildren and family more difficult though. Something that can be important in your later years.
      - pdimitar 9y ago
        I can tell you that most Europe will fix you up for much lower rates than USA -- heard that from people in the Baltic countries, Netherlands, Belgium, Poland and a few others. In my country -- Bulgaria -- I recall somebody on the news saying they pulled their US cousin in here and they got a complex multi-phase operational treatments (not good with medical English, sorry!) with 3 months of hospitalization... for a sum of money that would equal 1 week in hospital in USA plus only the first operation (out of 4-6). Medical tourism is becoming a thing here in Europe.
    - noonespecial 9y ago
      Having to pay $3k per month for health reasons sounds like the very disaster buying health insurance was supposed to guard against. If that $3k were paying a mortgage debt, it would be servicing more than $600,000!
      - tryingagainbro 9y ago
        If that $3k were paying a mortgage debt, it would be servicing more than $600,000! Sadly, $600K is nothing in healthcare costs, at least retail price. A snake bite can cost $153K https://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/21/hospital-appears-to-charge-153000-to-treat-snakebite.html https://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/21/hospital-appears-to-charge-1... https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rattlesnake-selfie-results-in-a-153k-medical-bill/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rattlesnake-selfie-results-in-a...
xstartup 9y ago
I went into serious depression for a month after that. That was not all money. I've more in saving which I don't touch. Honestly, I don't know what 2M buys because I've never spent any significant amount of money on anything. I don't know how much 2M is, all I know is that I had worked 2 years for that money. Whenever I remember that 2 years worth of my efforts has been flushed down the drain, it makes me sad.
- IAmGraydon 9y ago
  I'm loving the humblebrag in this post.