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SeekingAlpha predicted this a few weeks ago: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4114125-will-tesla-zero-month https://seekingalpha.com/article/4114125-will-tesla-
by ericabiz 9y ago
SeekingAlpha predicted this a few weeks ago: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4114125-will-tesla-zero-month https://seekingalpha.com/article/4114125-will-tesla-zero-mon...
"Leading up to the end of September, we saw new-high Model 3 VIN numbers in the wild almost every other day, culminating in number 521.
But since the beginning of October, nothing. I can’t find a single one above 521 with VIN picture evidence on any forum.
It’s unlikely to end up this way, but the sole evidence we have to date is this: Tesla is on track to deliver zero Model 3 units in October.
Of course, I don’t believe it will be exactly zero. However, it’s no longer an impossibility. It’s looking like my previous estimate of 240 units may be way too high."
Tesla says today they produced only 260 vehicles in October--and it's unlikely very many of those got all the way to end users!
From SeekingAlpha October 17: "At this stage, I'll continue to roll the dice one more time in favor of betting that for a third full month, the Chevrolet Bolt EV will out-sell the Tesla Model 3 in the U.S. - and probably by a very wide margin, along the lines or 10:1 or more. Maybe even 100:1 or an infinite margin."
Even if you consider Elon Musk a sort of demigod (as much of the tech industry seems to), the leap from 260 vehicles a month--which indicates the vehicles are still being made mostly by hand--to 5,000 a week is going to be incredibly difficult to make in just a few short months.
- revelation 9y agoOne or another amateur writer on that site predicts the bankruptcy of Tesla every other week. Even a stopped clock is right once a day.
- galeaspablo 9y agoTwice
- dilemma 9y agoSo you think Tesla is going bankrupt
- csours 9y agoIt turns out that if you have billions in cheap funding, you can keep doing things the wrong way for quite some time.
- Smaug123 9y ago"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
- rrhd 9y agoExcept in this case it's more than other way. The market is fine, it's tesla causing issues.
- Smaug123 9y agoSorry, I thought the analogy was clear, but evidently it wasn't :) "Tesla can remain irrational longer than the investors can continue to bet against it". More of a flippant remark than anything.
- roomey 9y agoÑl
- paulpauper 9y agothat site publishes the same 'tesla is doomed/overvalued' article every week as far back as 2012
- gcheong 9y agoWhat does it mean to "outsell" something when that something is backordered into the foreseable future? Personally I will wait until Tesla goes bankrupt before I buy a bolt but I'm still betting that, despite Tesla's lack of ability to predict their own production capability timeline (uh hello, pretty much every tech company that ever existed), that I won't have to.
- hkmurakami 9y agoActual deliveries and full payment.
- planteen 9y agoExactly, GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) which publicly traded US companies must play by...
- rtpg 9y agoPreorders don't become actual sales until you ship the product. If Tesla can't ship cars fast enough they're going to have serious cash flow problems. The pre-orders mean they could get some line of credit to help, but that will also cut into margins
- BLanen 9y agoPreorders are a liability.
- Animats 9y agoIn Tesla's case, no. Tesla preorders don't come with a price guarantee, and either the buyer or seller can cancel. It's really just an option on a delivery position. Now if Tesla had locked in the price on preorders, they'd be in big trouble.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- asdfasdfasd333 9y agolol at quoting seeking alpha.
- sctb 9y agoYou've been posting mostly unsubstantive comments, which are against the site guidelines: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html. We ban accounts that do this, so please stop.
- rconti 9y agoHuh. A friend told me a week or two ago that he saw 3 truckloads full of Model 3s going up 101. Who knows, maybe he actually saw model S or X.
- Avshalom 9y agoThat's about 10-20 cars, which is not enough to say anything about anything really.
- paulpauper 9y agoseeking alpha is a user contributed site. they don't predict anything. their authors do. and most off them have terrible track record and are trying to push their newsletters , funds, and other crud on an dwindling supply of dumb mom & pop investors who read the site
- adventurer 9y agoI'm not sure at this point, but they used to allow anyone to write articles. You were paid based on pageviews. I put their analysis of companies right up there with Marketwatch headlining a big crash everytime there is a down day in the markets.
- prostoalex 9y agoSeekingAlpha (along with ZeroHedge) correctly predicted 500 out of last 2 economic recessions.
- cataflam 9y agoIndeed, if you click "expand" next to "About this article" at the bottom you will read : >Author payment: $35 + $0.01/page view. Authors of PRO articles receive a minimum guaranteed payment of $150-500.