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> Watch the USD. Once it plunges, it's over. Historically ( past few decades ), during recessions and international crisis, foreign money would flow into the U
by eighthnate 9y ago
> Watch the USD. Once it plunges, it's over.
Historically ( past few decades ), during recessions and international crisis, foreign money would flow into the US, japan, switzerland, etc. But primarily to the US because we are the safe haven for the world and that inflow helped prop up the dollar.
If a major recession or international crisis occurred and foreign money didn't flow into the US, then it would signify a paradigm shift in the international political/economic order.
I don't think ( at least I hope ) we are anywhere near a paradigm shift in the world order given our preeminent military and economic position and our alliances around the world.
But I guess even the brits during reign of the british empire thought that their party would last forever.
- padobson 9y agoThere were some pretty decent warning signs the British Empire was over, the American Revolution being a good one. For the USD to collapse and not take the rest of the world with it, there would have to be some sort of global currency diversification that diminished the centralized power of the US in the global economy. To continue the British Empire analogy, there would have to be some currency "revolutions" around the world. If the USD tanked, would Euros be able to replace it? Pounds? Yen? Yuan? All of the countries tied to those currencies are heavily invested in US debt and many of their fortunes are tied to the US consumer. That paradigm shift may be coming, but it seems like it's still a ways off to me.