I have very little confidence. That's why I stay mostly in cash and largely avoid single company equities. I capture my gains when it feels "early" and I leave

I have very little confidence. That's why I stay mostly in cash and largely avoid single company equities. I capture my gains when it feels "early" and I leave a lot of money on the table doing this. All these behaviors come from trying to limit my exposure to the steamroller. The trades I get excited about though are ones that feel like the steamroller has already gone through and may have arrived prematurely. The S&P gives me even less confidence. The sector rotation often feels so artificial and controlled. Couple weeks ago when Apple had their keynote and the market reacted badly to it, I noticed bank stocks rising the next day about exactly as much as Apple lost market cap. Just feels like there's a smoothing function running on the S&P right now. If that function has operators then there's an enormous and still growing short opportunity for them to someday turn it off.