3 ms·
>If that series of bullet points doesn’t grab someone’s interest and make them want to engage in the robust hyper-competition of modern capitalism, I’m not sure
by jasode 9y ago
>If that series of bullet points doesn’t grab someone’s interest and make them want to engage in the robust hyper-competition of modern capitalism, I’m not sure anything will.
In that vein, I'm not a stock analyst so when I was young, I didn't "grok" what made investors tick. The stock market seemed incredibly boring. Yes, it could make people millions but as an outsider, the idea of looking at numbers all day to get those millions seemed like a hell on earth existence.
The 1993 book "Market Wizards" by Jack Schwager[1] changed all that and completely opened my eyes. It was the first time I had seen the word "thesis" in regards to picking stocks -- as used in the phrase "investment thesis" by interviewees. It immediately let me map it to physicists playing with equations to see which ones correspond better to reality. Just as discovering explanatory equations is intellectually satisfying, the same nirvana happens when investors discover a flaw in an asset price and get proven correct when they exploit it.
Stock investing is sort of like The Ultimate Game of Cunningham's Law[2] and the XKCD cartoon[3]. The insatiable human urge to "correct" other humans results in millions for investors.
If we on HN/reddit see a person claim that "Apple has a smartphone monopoly", we'd would correct the false statement with "No, Apple only has 17% share and Android has 83%". The reward for our correction is invisible internet points that you can't even buy a stick of gum with.
On the other hand, an investor like Michael Burry[4] will notice that other entities are mispricing mortgage backed securities. His analysis shows that they will default. That's his investment thesis. It contradicts statements from smart people like Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke -- both who have PhD in Economics. It contradicts smart guys from Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. Even his own limited partners in his hedge fund lose faith and withdraw their investments. The 2008 housing crash proves his thesis was correct and he got $100 million in profit. Yes, it must be incredibly intellectually satisfying to prove everyone else wrong especially when they have the same information he does. He just crunched the numbers differently based on different assumptions. Stock picking is not "boring" to people like them; it's a fun intellectual game. I wish had the disposition to play it.
[1] https://www.amazon.com/Jack-D.-Schwager/e/B000AR7ZM4/ https://www.amazon.com/Jack-D.-Schwager/e/B000AR7ZM4/
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ward_Cunningham#Cunningham.27s_Law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ward_Cunningham#Cunningham.27s...
[3] https://xkcd.com/386/ https://xkcd.com/386/
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Burry#Investment_career https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Burry#Investment_caree...
- vkou 9y ago> Stock investing is sort of like The Ultimate Game of Cunningham's Law[2] and the XKCD cartoon[3]. The insatiable human urge to "correct" other humans results in millions for investors. Most (By number) people invest not because they think that market prices are wrong. They invest because it's the only way for someone with limited capital to be an owner, as opposed to a worker. I'd like to not live under a bridge when I'm 73.
- jasode 9y ago>Most (By number) people invest not because they think that market prices are wrong. Sure, I understand. My reply was about the bullet points the parent poster highlighted. Instead of long-term retirement savings type of thinking of the average Joe, the bullets from the article were about: >“Short-term relative pricing of liquid financial assets, like the price of S&P 500 stocks relative to other S&P 500 stocks over the next three months.” ... which attracts physics PhDs, neurologists like Michael Burry, etc.