4 ms·
For a somewhat contrary view, there is Richard Feynman and Disregard! [1] I tend to fundamentally disagree with the notion of this paper. For a reason why let'
by indubitable 9y ago
For a somewhat contrary view, there is Richard Feynman and Disregard! [1]
I tend to fundamentally disagree with the notion of this paper. For a reason why let's consider something like quantum mechanics and relativity. Right now relativity and quantum mechanics are incompatible in domains where they intersect. There is an absolutely enormous incentive to reconcile this. The Nobel Prize would be little more than a formality for a discovery of this magnitude. And the best and brightest in the world have been working on this for many decades.
So the implication of this paper is that, thus, you probably shouldn't try to improve the work here. Of course that's nonsensical since it's obviously provably in need of improvement. And there will be some individual, or group of individuals, that manage to succeed here and push humanity that much more forward.
He relies on examples that are not falsifiable. The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. In particular in his stock market example, he argues that it is operating optimally by little more than an appeal to authority and a lack of contrary evidence. It's like saying that no human will be able to run faster than Usain Bolt since lots of people (and massive supporting teams) are spending their lives trying to do just that (with 0 barriers to entry) and all have failed, so there's no reason to believe any given individual could ever do better. Of course the one thing the olympics shows is that records are set only to be broken.
I suppose it depends on your life view, but I think people should pursue that which interests them - even if an objective analysis would lead them to believe that their chances of meaningful (and who gets to determine that?) success are negligible. And I would take this a step further. Not only should people do this but the entire progression of humanity is contingent on people doing this. The people that make true progress in a field tend to love that field. And their progress is more a consequence of that love than any sort of higher level objective analysis of fields where their best chances of success lay.
Maybe it's best to conclude with a simple counter example. He mentions, repeatedly, you should question yourself if you see a $20 bill laying on the floor in a populated area for hours. And this is supposed to be meaningful. However, instead of relying on a likely very rare outside force (somebody dropping a $20 bill) let's consider something that's an entirely typical and common social phenomena - elevators. How many people have come to a crowded area just outside an elevator, only to find that the problem is that nobody has pushed the button? There's certainly a major incentive to push that button, and there's no barrier to entry other than the arrogance of thinking everybody else might be a bit silly - yet time and again we find nobody pushed the button.
[1] - https://stepsandleaps.wordpress.com/2017/10/17/feynmans-breakthrough-disregard-others/ https://stepsandleaps.wordpress.com/2017/10/17/feynmans-brea...
- EnFinlay 9y agoI don't think the article is arguing that no one should pursue hard problems that have economic incentives to be solved, it is saying that when you are a non-expert, you should defer to popular opinion. There's nothing stopping people from pursing the hard (yet profitable pursuits), the article mentions people who make their livelihoods in these arenas and does not say they are wasting their time. > He relies on examples that are not falsifiable. The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. In particular in his stock market example, The article includes an counter-example, and we all know that they exist. People have bet against the market prices and come out ahead. The article is saying that such an event should not attributed to skill.
- loup-vaillant 9y ago> How many people have come to a crowded area just outside an elevator, only to find that the problem is that nobody has pushed the button? That's easily explained by information cascade: everybody tries to assess the situation calmly, notice no one is doing anything, and conclude nothing shall be done. Eliezer gave the example of smoke under the door (vs a fire alarm): the more people in the room, the less likely they are to act. The $20 bill is very different: while the area is crowed, each individual is alone, and doesn't expect any attention from bending down and picking up the bill. > The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Yes it is? http://lesswrong.com/lw/ih/absence_of_evidence_is_evidence_of_absence/ http://lesswrong.com/lw/ih/absence_of_evidence_is_evidence_o...