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This is very eloquent but somewhat verbose and rambling in parts. The only solid take aways i pulled from it are: 1. The assumption that if its easy than any
by nautilus12 9y ago
This is very eloquent but somewhat verbose and rambling in parts. The only solid take aways i pulled from it are:
1. The assumption that if its easy than any one would have done it in some markets is very true but is not a universal maxim.
2. You have to search out the markets where that is less true.
To expand on the station analogy with the $20 bill they mention in the middle of the station where the traffic is highest but what about in the alley behind the station or next to the stand with the new careless employee? Arbitrage isnt just limited to the most trodden popular paths (s&p 500). The context always changes the ebb and flow surrounding arbitrage, whereas you cant fight the raging river and expect to beat it, you may find opportunity in a swirling eddie
- hateduser2 9y agoIt’s not really true. There are real cases where people have radical, obvious insights. Look at history of science and math!
- hyperpallium 9y agoWhat often happens to startups, is they begin with some exciting idea, and having looked into it/tried it, it doesn't pan out, and they "pivot" - sometimes slightly, often wildly. I'm not sure how common this dynamic is in science and maths. Certainly, as you learn more, your ideas and concepts are inevitably refined. (Like: no plan survives contact with the enemy). But I don't know whether that "refinement" is too subtle to count as a "pivot". However, serendipity has a storied past in math and science.
- TeMPOraL 9y agoScience and math are a repeating story of civilization-level of knowledge reaching a threshold at which some breakthroughs become easy to figure out, followed by a bunch of smart people making those breakthroughs simultaneously. I.e. the famous scientists were not that smart - they were just the smartest and therefore first to react to the waterline of knowledge in their domain rising high enough.