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I really appreciate this essay, if just for categorizing a type of argument I've run into multiple times myself. I've often shared ideas with others and found t

I really appreciate this essay, if just for categorizing a type of argument I've run into multiple times myself. I've often shared ideas with others and found that when ideas cross a certain "weirdness threshold" and are sufficiently deviant from mainstream thought, the "modest epistemology" argument crops up. After all - if weird idea X was so great, it should already exist. I've never had a proper standard response to this sort objection. Sometimes the key to recognizing something is wrong is the ability to categorize it.

ianai 9y ago
“Knowing is half the battle”
jancsika 9y ago
That's likely to simply flip your current intuitions in favor of investigating more ideas that pass the weirdness threshold. Without considering the specific context of ideas under discussion, I'm not sure that gets you anywhere.
- neltnerb 9y ago
  One convenient metric is "how likely is it that someone with the particular knowledge required to think of this also has the problem I do?"
  - bsder 9y ago
    Maybe. But there are two modalities to this: 1) Implementation often takes one clever person with the requisite knowledge and then everybody copies it if it's a good idea. BitTorrent is a good example. Lots of people could have developed BitTorrent or developed something almost like BitTorrent, but Bram Cohen pulled it all together into one neat, usable package. This modality is probably harder to spot as the "Am I actually clever?" question is difficult to answer with good Bayesian priors. 2) Implementation requires someone with an intersection of skills that limits how many people can exist. My last experience getting an EEG is a good example: the individual pieces of EEG equipment are absolutely primitive to any decent electrical engineer and the user interface to the software is horrifically bad (one step up on reading a paper chart strip). Yet, to improve it, you need an intersection of low-noise analog design, UI programing, signal feature detection and extraction, machine learning applicable to signals, and knowledge of how EEG's work and are used for diagnosis. There simply aren't that many people with all of those characteristics that could move the front forward. However, this modality is VERY easy to spot: "Do I have the intersection of skills necessary to be this person?" is a very straightforward question.
mcguire 9y ago
"Weirdness threshold" is probably not the best term here. Similar arguments crop up often in notably non-weird discussions, such as "if women were really paid less for the same work, a company employing only women would have a major competitive advantage."

ianai 9y ago

“Knowing is half the battle”

jancsika 9y ago

That's likely to simply flip your current intuitions in favor of investigating more ideas that pass the weirdness threshold. Without considering the specific context of ideas under discussion, I'm not sure that gets you anywhere.

neltnerb 9y ago
One convenient metric is "how likely is it that someone with the particular knowledge required to think of this also has the problem I do?"
- bsder 9y ago
  Maybe. But there are two modalities to this: 1) Implementation often takes one clever person with the requisite knowledge and then everybody copies it if it's a good idea. BitTorrent is a good example. Lots of people could have developed BitTorrent or developed something almost like BitTorrent, but Bram Cohen pulled it all together into one neat, usable package. This modality is probably harder to spot as the "Am I actually clever?" question is difficult to answer with good Bayesian priors. 2) Implementation requires someone with an intersection of skills that limits how many people can exist. My last experience getting an EEG is a good example: the individual pieces of EEG equipment are absolutely primitive to any decent electrical engineer and the user interface to the software is horrifically bad (one step up on reading a paper chart strip). Yet, to improve it, you need an intersection of low-noise analog design, UI programing, signal feature detection and extraction, machine learning applicable to signals, and knowledge of how EEG's work and are used for diagnosis. There simply aren't that many people with all of those characteristics that could move the front forward. However, this modality is VERY easy to spot: "Do I have the intersection of skills necessary to be this person?" is a very straightforward question.

mcguire 9y ago

"Weirdness threshold" is probably not the best term here. Similar arguments crop up often in notably non-weird discussions, such as "if women were really paid less for the same work, a company employing only women would have a major competitive advantage."