5 ms·

I cannot imagine that it ends in a civil war. Civil wars happen when you have 1) a lot of young men, 2) who have little to lose, and 3) who are used to livin

by flexie 9y ago

I cannot imagine that it ends in a civil war. Civil wars happen when you have 1) a lot of young men, 2) who have little to lose, and 3) who are used to living a life with not much more comfort than that of a soldier (maybe even less) The young generation in Catalonia is small, they have a lot to lose, and they live very comfortable lives. I don't see them taking up arms. Maybe they will take to the streets for a few days, but they are not willing to fight in great numbers, or give up studies or jobs. In the last civil war in Spain or the one in America or the ones in the Middle East, those conditions were present.

dragonwriter 9y ago
Those factors make war of any kind more likely, but are not necessary for it, civil or otherwise.
epmatsw 9y ago
Doesn’t Catalonia have a 13% unemployment rate? And a ~40% unemployment rate among young people? Seems like that fits those criteria pretty well...
- flexie 9y ago
  There is a huge difference between the well educated but for now unemployed Catalan, 28 year old, only child (or with one or two siblings), always well fed, always warm, maybe living with his parents, maybe sharing a flat somewhere, all his life feeling safe, spending his days playing Xbox, surfing the Internet, chasing girls, hanging out on cafes or bars or going to Camp Nou to watch games, going skiing in January, to the beach in the Summer and then your young, angry Arab man, third son in a family of 5, little education, no girls, no fun, no safety, no future.
  - scientistem 9y ago
    It actually sounds like you’re describing the leadup to wwi. These conditions lead to war, not against it. I’d love to hear a contrary opinion for the downvote I got: gross economic disparity and a large populace that has forgotten war sounds a lot like the early twentieth century.
    - flexie 9y ago
      People here downvote all the time once discussions are political. Don't bother. What I wrote applies more to civil war than to war between nations (where citizens can be forced to war by governments). Of course, in reality the line between war between nations and internal civil war is often blurred - civil wars and wars are often mixed up and neighboring nations often support one side with money, weapons, troops etc. Furthermore realities of war can force people to take side once the conflict is ongoing, if nothing else, then to survive. Now, with that in mind, prior to WWI you had a large generation of poor young German and Austrian men, and a large generation of poor young French, Russian, and British men. Today you don't. Also, visit a European house or apartment from 1850-1900, which most people still lived in around WWI. One that is used as a museum so that it hasn't been renovated. You'll see that they were significantly less comfortable than today. No AC, no radiators, often no toilets (but a loo outside), usually no showers. Heat was from coal briquettes in a stove near the center of the house which meant constant draft and bad air. Cooking happened from gas, briquette or wooden fueled stove. There was no fridge or freezer but usually a small room that was cooler and where food would be stored. The house had little or no insulation, the windows had one layer of glass. There would often be electricity, but it would only be for the light bulbs. Radios or phones were still not common, hot water was still not a thing everybody had. There might be hens in the yard and milk was delivered in bottles. Most of this, except the radios and telephones, was true for 1939 as well. Having been in the army myself, it always strikes me how much closer life before modern conveniences was to army life. Take 25 year old Hermann, a single guy from 1914, and put him in a military camp. He would not experience such a huge drop in comfort as you or I would before the fighting begun. He would eat, drink, sleep, keep warm etc. much in the same way as if he was home. He would entertain himself with books, songs etc. much in the same way. He would be surrounded by men just as he likely would at home or work or university. This was in the beginning of woman's emancipation so he would probably not miss out on a dating scene, going out with girls, male/female social life etc. For many, life meant long hours of hard manual labor in factories or farms, not less hard than the manual work in military. No vacation, no weekends (but a Sunday). His life outside of military was not that much better. Until the fighting begun, of course. Today, joining a primitive militia/guerrilla group would mean a huge decline in quality of life of an 18 year old from Barcelona. Take 25 year old Jordi from Barcelona. He graduated as a graphical designer some months ago and spends 2 hours a day playing Counter Strike and 3 hours on his iPhone7 swiping left and right. Sometimes he looks for jobs online. He has female friends, and a dating life. He is used to walking to the metro, but otherwise doesn't get much exercise. He still lives with his parents and will likely do so for a few years more unless he gets himself together and turn that computer interest into something useful. Life has its challenges, but it sure isn't that tough. He has never killed anything he ate. He has never done much manual labor. Right now he's concerned if he will have enough money to join his friends skiing in the Pyrenees in a few months and what he's going to tell the date tonight about his job situation. He sure isn't worried about food on the table. Might Jordi join the protest on Placa Catalunya? Yes. Would he take up arms and hide in a forest in the low mountains west of Zaragoza waiting to ambush the approaching castellano troops? I wouldn't say never, but I just can't see it happening. Jordi loves the idea of Catalonia but he also loves his life and camping is not really for him. Plus he has a date tonight. There is simply a greater difference between Western "working class" or middle class life and the outdoor, offline, off dating manual labor life of a soldier, than there was before.
liberte82 9y ago
I agree, civil war is very unlikely. I think we're in for a period of unrest much more like the Irish Troubles, with organized acts of political terrorism.
- TheAdamAndChe 9y ago
  Isn't political terrorism just another word for asymmetric warfare? How wouldn't that be a civil war?
johnnyfaehell 9y ago
Civil war is unlikely but it's certainly on the table. If it does end up like that, it'll probably be a "terrorist" war of attrition. Which the EU will want to have none of.
bnastic 9y ago
Those three points aren't valid for any of the civil wars I witnessed first hand
- noahl 9y ago
  Could you expand on that, please?
stevedekorte 9y ago
Is this not true of the young on both sides? Is it safe to assume that the part of the Spanish military from Catalan will not side with Catalan?

by flexie 9y ago

dragonwriter 9y ago

Those factors make war of any kind more likely, but are not necessary for it, civil or otherwise.

epmatsw 9y ago

Doesn’t Catalonia have a 13% unemployment rate? And a ~40% unemployment rate among young people? Seems like that fits those criteria pretty well...

flexie 9y ago
There is a huge difference between the well educated but for now unemployed Catalan, 28 year old, only child (or with one or two siblings), always well fed, always warm, maybe living with his parents, maybe sharing a flat somewhere, all his life feeling safe, spending his days playing Xbox, surfing the Internet, chasing girls, hanging out on cafes or bars or going to Camp Nou to watch games, going skiing in January, to the beach in the Summer and then your young, angry Arab man, third son in a family of 5, little education, no girls, no fun, no safety, no future.
- scientistem 9y ago
  It actually sounds like you’re describing the leadup to wwi. These conditions lead to war, not against it. I’d love to hear a contrary opinion for the downvote I got: gross economic disparity and a large populace that has forgotten war sounds a lot like the early twentieth century.
  - flexie 9y ago
    People here downvote all the time once discussions are political. Don't bother. What I wrote applies more to civil war than to war between nations (where citizens can be forced to war by governments). Of course, in reality the line between war between nations and internal civil war is often blurred - civil wars and wars are often mixed up and neighboring nations often support one side with money, weapons, troops etc. Furthermore realities of war can force people to take side once the conflict is ongoing, if nothing else, then to survive. Now, with that in mind, prior to WWI you had a large generation of poor young German and Austrian men, and a large generation of poor young French, Russian, and British men. Today you don't. Also, visit a European house or apartment from 1850-1900, which most people still lived in around WWI. One that is used as a museum so that it hasn't been renovated. You'll see that they were significantly less comfortable than today. No AC, no radiators, often no toilets (but a loo outside), usually no showers. Heat was from coal briquettes in a stove near the center of the house which meant constant draft and bad air. Cooking happened from gas, briquette or wooden fueled stove. There was no fridge or freezer but usually a small room that was cooler and where food would be stored. The house had little or no insulation, the windows had one layer of glass. There would often be electricity, but it would only be for the light bulbs. Radios or phones were still not common, hot water was still not a thing everybody had. There might be hens in the yard and milk was delivered in bottles. Most of this, except the radios and telephones, was true for 1939 as well. Having been in the army myself, it always strikes me how much closer life before modern conveniences was to army life. Take 25 year old Hermann, a single guy from 1914, and put him in a military camp. He would not experience such a huge drop in comfort as you or I would before the fighting begun. He would eat, drink, sleep, keep warm etc. much in the same way as if he was home. He would entertain himself with books, songs etc. much in the same way. He would be surrounded by men just as he likely would at home or work or university. This was in the beginning of woman's emancipation so he would probably not miss out on a dating scene, going out with girls, male/female social life etc. For many, life meant long hours of hard manual labor in factories or farms, not less hard than the manual work in military. No vacation, no weekends (but a Sunday). His life outside of military was not that much better. Until the fighting begun, of course. Today, joining a primitive militia/guerrilla group would mean a huge decline in quality of life of an 18 year old from Barcelona. Take 25 year old Jordi from Barcelona. He graduated as a graphical designer some months ago and spends 2 hours a day playing Counter Strike and 3 hours on his iPhone7 swiping left and right. Sometimes he looks for jobs online. He has female friends, and a dating life. He is used to walking to the metro, but otherwise doesn't get much exercise. He still lives with his parents and will likely do so for a few years more unless he gets himself together and turn that computer interest into something useful. Life has its challenges, but it sure isn't that tough. He has never killed anything he ate. He has never done much manual labor. Right now he's concerned if he will have enough money to join his friends skiing in the Pyrenees in a few months and what he's going to tell the date tonight about his job situation. He sure isn't worried about food on the table. Might Jordi join the protest on Placa Catalunya? Yes. Would he take up arms and hide in a forest in the low mountains west of Zaragoza waiting to ambush the approaching castellano troops? I wouldn't say never, but I just can't see it happening. Jordi loves the idea of Catalonia but he also loves his life and camping is not really for him. Plus he has a date tonight. There is simply a greater difference between Western "working class" or middle class life and the outdoor, offline, off dating manual labor life of a soldier, than there was before.

liberte82 9y ago

I agree, civil war is very unlikely. I think we're in for a period of unrest much more like the Irish Troubles, with organized acts of political terrorism.

TheAdamAndChe 9y ago
Isn't political terrorism just another word for asymmetric warfare? How wouldn't that be a civil war?

johnnyfaehell 9y ago

Civil war is unlikely but it's certainly on the table. If it does end up like that, it'll probably be a "terrorist" war of attrition. Which the EU will want to have none of.

bnastic 9y ago

Those three points aren't valid for any of the civil wars I witnessed first hand

noahl 9y ago
Could you expand on that, please?

stevedekorte 9y ago

Is this not true of the young on both sides? Is it safe to assume that the part of the Spanish military from Catalan will not side with Catalan?