5 ms·

So then, what tactics does civilization require in order to hold together?

by platz 9y ago

jerf 9y ago
Well, that sounds like a book. But despite the failure, I'd point to Brexit as an example where there was a conflict that was still broadly speaking handled in a civilized manner. If I recall correctly, the EU never said that if the UK left, they would take steps to liquidate Parliament. It was (and is!) an acrimonious debate, but still a civilized one (contrary to apparently popular belief, "nice" and "civilized" are not synonyms and are at times diametrically opposed; at best "nice" is what can result from civilization, it is not the cause of civilization). And despite the fact Brexit narrowly passed, I guarantee that had the EU gone the route that Spain did, Brexit would not have narrowly passed, but passed by a wide margin. Contrariwise, even with all of Spain's errors and provocations, by numbers it seems like Catalonian independence just barely has something like a majority, or narrowly misses a majority, despite the superficial voting numbers, and that I would imagine includes a lot of very squishy support. Let's call real support in the 40-60% range. Some emotional sweet talk in attempt to emphasize solidarity, combined with some threats about what "could" happen (both in terms of bad things that may happen economically and vague threats of retaliation from Spain) but with no actual violence threats, along with emphasizing that it is their choice ultimately, would probably have resulted in as much as a 2-1 defeat for the independence. If nothing else, even just an appeal to the status quo rather than the dangers of such a radical change has had some success as a political campaign ("don't change horses midstream" - relection slogan for Abraham Lincoln [1]). Convert that "squishy support" into "squishy rejection", and the numbers change a lot. I hope what I'm writing here makes it clear just how much of a wild-ass guess that is, rather than some sort of principled analysis; if your mileage varies, more power to you. My big claim is that it would have made the situation better moreso than the precise numbers. That is an example. There were other approaches that would have done better. I'd also observe that the approach I'm proposing here strikes me as fairly European, with the emphasis on solidarity and such. I'm pretty sure I'd recommend a substantially different approach if we were discussing Texas secession. I'd also point out that I'm not viewing successfully keeping Catalan in Spain as the end of history. The issues would still be there. "Something" would really have to be done about that. But all countries have stresses, and Quebec remains part of Canada to this day, for instance. The stresses don't have to explode. (I've also read some analysis that suggests these actions would have been politically untenable for Spain's current leadership. So I'm talking about what Spain as a whole "should" have done, not what Spain's leadership necessarily could do. I still don't know where I fall in the "forces of history" vs. "big actors in history" debate, but I tend to think the answer is "yes, both by a lot".) [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._presidential_campaign_slogans#1864 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._presidential_camp...
- pm90 9y ago
  I don't think Brexit is a good example because the EU never was a Sovereign, united state in the same way that, say, the US is. The UK already has its own independently functional institutions, separate from the EU, and an international recognition and identity outside of EU. Not the same as Catalan province.
  - jerf 9y ago
    I'm citing it just as a similar debate that was handled without the same drastic errors that Spain made, not that it parallels Catalan's debate in any other particular way. At least as of this writing, peaceful secessions involving voting for secession is still a rare enough thing that they are all unique snowflakes. (Ask me again in 10 years.) I'm sure the EU made errors; I mean, that's almost a vacuous statement because there are always errors. (Pro-Brexit made errors too; also equally a nearly vacuous statement.) But there were nowhere near this drastic.
- pjc50 9y ago
  I'd cite the Scottish independence referendum as an example of how to do it with the minimum of acrimony and near-zero violence. Although we don't know what would have happened exactly if Yes had won.
  - sirkneeland 9y ago
    It seemed pretty acrimonious and left scars that haven't healed to this day. I mean, I grant that in the grand scheme of things (and certainly in comparison to how Spain bungled this), you are correct, the UK handled it as well as possible.
- JdeBP 9y ago
  There is one important difference: The "Brexit" has a legal foundation in the Treaty of Lisbon that sets out a mechanism, the infamous article 50 (written by a Brit, it transpires). Similarly, the independence referendum in Scotland had a legal foundation, an Order in Council. The division of Czechoslovakia was done by making constitutional law. Catalonian independence has no such legal foundation to rely upon, albeit that constitutional reforms aimed at providing one have been attempted. The U.S. constitution lacks a secession mechanism, too, some of the consequences of which are well known.
ctdonath 9y ago
The US constitution has worked quite well (despite our penchant for drama) for a couple centuries. Oversimplified: recognize states as semi-autonomous, localize governance as much as possible, balance voting power to prevent "tyranny of the majority", emphasize individual rights & liberty. Too much of bossing around others does not end well.
- nextos 9y ago
  Catalonia is as semi-autonomous as Texas right now.
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
  - wolco 9y ago
    But with transfer payments like Canadian provinces where they are paying more than receiving.
- autokad 9y ago
  yeah, its crazy how people just dont get that anymore. 'the majority (50.1%) of people feel the way I do, everyone else should have to do as I do because that's how democracies work. we live in a society after all'.
- icebraining 9y ago
  The US did have a civil war during those couple of centuries, though.
  - ctdonath 9y ago
    Largely because "50.1%", living hundreds or thousands of miles away, took to bossing the "49.9%" secessionists around. It also involved imposing a massive moral change with enormous economic consequences, which people understandably had some objections to. Ending slavery as a primary institution was costly.

So then, what tactics does civilization require in order to hold together?

by platz 9y ago

So then, what tactics does civilization require in order to hold together?

jerf 9y ago

Well, that sounds like a book. But despite the failure, I'd point to Brexit as an example where there was a conflict that was still broadly speaking handled in a civilized manner. If I recall correctly, the EU never said that if the UK left, they would take steps to liquidate Parliament. It was (and is!) an acrimonious debate, but still a civilized one (contrary to apparently popular belief, "nice" and "civilized" are not synonyms and are at times diametrically opposed; at best "nice" is what can result from civilization, it is not the cause of civilization). And despite the fact Brexit narrowly passed, I guarantee that had the EU gone the route that Spain did, Brexit would not have narrowly passed, but passed by a wide margin. Contrariwise, even with all of Spain's errors and provocations, by numbers it seems like Catalonian independence just barely has something like a majority, or narrowly misses a majority, despite the superficial voting numbers, and that I would imagine includes a lot of very squishy support. Let's call real support in the 40-60% range. Some emotional sweet talk in attempt to emphasize solidarity, combined with some threats about what "could" happen (both in terms of bad things that may happen economically and vague threats of retaliation from Spain) but with no actual violence threats, along with emphasizing that it is their choice ultimately, would probably have resulted in as much as a 2-1 defeat for the independence. If nothing else, even just an appeal to the status quo rather than the dangers of such a radical change has had some success as a political campaign ("don't change horses midstream" - relection slogan for Abraham Lincoln [1]). Convert that "squishy support" into "squishy rejection", and the numbers change a lot. I hope what I'm writing here makes it clear just how much of a wild-ass guess that is, rather than some sort of principled analysis; if your mileage varies, more power to you. My big claim is that it would have made the situation better moreso than the precise numbers. That is an example. There were other approaches that would have done better. I'd also observe that the approach I'm proposing here strikes me as fairly European, with the emphasis on solidarity and such. I'm pretty sure I'd recommend a substantially different approach if we were discussing Texas secession. I'd also point out that I'm not viewing successfully keeping Catalan in Spain as the end of history. The issues would still be there. "Something" would really have to be done about that. But all countries have stresses, and Quebec remains part of Canada to this day, for instance. The stresses don't have to explode. (I've also read some analysis that suggests these actions would have been politically untenable for Spain's current leadership. So I'm talking about what Spain as a whole "should" have done, not what Spain's leadership necessarily could do. I still don't know where I fall in the "forces of history" vs. "big actors in history" debate, but I tend to think the answer is "yes, both by a lot".) [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._presidential_campaign_slogans#1864 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._presidential_camp...

pm90 9y ago
I don't think Brexit is a good example because the EU never was a Sovereign, united state in the same way that, say, the US is. The UK already has its own independently functional institutions, separate from the EU, and an international recognition and identity outside of EU. Not the same as Catalan province.
- jerf 9y ago
  I'm citing it just as a similar debate that was handled without the same drastic errors that Spain made, not that it parallels Catalan's debate in any other particular way. At least as of this writing, peaceful secessions involving voting for secession is still a rare enough thing that they are all unique snowflakes. (Ask me again in 10 years.) I'm sure the EU made errors; I mean, that's almost a vacuous statement because there are always errors. (Pro-Brexit made errors too; also equally a nearly vacuous statement.) But there were nowhere near this drastic.
pjc50 9y ago
I'd cite the Scottish independence referendum as an example of how to do it with the minimum of acrimony and near-zero violence. Although we don't know what would have happened exactly if Yes had won.
- sirkneeland 9y ago
  It seemed pretty acrimonious and left scars that haven't healed to this day. I mean, I grant that in the grand scheme of things (and certainly in comparison to how Spain bungled this), you are correct, the UK handled it as well as possible.
JdeBP 9y ago
There is one important difference: The "Brexit" has a legal foundation in the Treaty of Lisbon that sets out a mechanism, the infamous article 50 (written by a Brit, it transpires). Similarly, the independence referendum in Scotland had a legal foundation, an Order in Council. The division of Czechoslovakia was done by making constitutional law. Catalonian independence has no such legal foundation to rely upon, albeit that constitutional reforms aimed at providing one have been attempted. The U.S. constitution lacks a secession mechanism, too, some of the consequences of which are well known.

ctdonath 9y ago

The US constitution has worked quite well (despite our penchant for drama) for a couple centuries. Oversimplified: recognize states as semi-autonomous, localize governance as much as possible, balance voting power to prevent "tyranny of the majority", emphasize individual rights & liberty. Too much of bossing around others does not end well.

nextos 9y ago
Catalonia is as semi-autonomous as Texas right now.
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- wolco 9y ago
  But with transfer payments like Canadian provinces where they are paying more than receiving.
autokad 9y ago
yeah, its crazy how people just dont get that anymore. 'the majority (50.1%) of people feel the way I do, everyone else should have to do as I do because that's how democracies work. we live in a society after all'.
icebraining 9y ago
The US did have a civil war during those couple of centuries, though.
- ctdonath 9y ago
  Largely because "50.1%", living hundreds or thousands of miles away, took to bossing the "49.9%" secessionists around. It also involved imposing a massive moral change with enormous economic consequences, which people understandably had some objections to. Ending slavery as a primary institution was costly.