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> All of you ladies and gents who blow off your annual flu vaccine because "you just don't seem to ever catch it" - you're just lucky. It's only a matter of tim

> All of you ladies and gents who blow off your annual flu vaccine because "you just don't seem to ever catch it" - you're just lucky. It's only a matter of time with modern travel and climate change until another virulent strain hits. Even if you do get the vaccine, there's no guarantee that it will actually include your new virulent strain. The flu vaccine is more involved (and uncertain) than others because influenza has a high mutation rate. It's a bit of a guessing game each year as to which strains should be included, and new ones crop up all the time.

exhilaration 9y ago
Even if you do get the vaccine, there's no guarantee that it will actually include your new virulent strain. True, for reference look at this table from the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/vaccination/effectiveness-studies.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/vaccination/effectiven... 2011-12: 47% vaccine effectiveness 2012-13: 49% vaccine effectiveness 2013-14: 52% vaccine effectiveness 2014-15: 19% vaccine effectiveness 2015-16: 48% vaccine effectiveness 2016-17: 42% vaccine effectiveness But I still get my flu shot every year, better to be 40-50% protected than 0%.
- lr4444lr 9y ago
  Are you sure the R0 of the original article isn't determined accounting for the fact of vaccine ineffectiveness?
  - exhilaration 9y ago
    I don't know, corrections are welcome!
  - btilly 9y ago
    The R0 of the original article is determined on the assumption that nobody is immunized at all. Vaccine ineffectiveness is the odds that when you are potentially infected by a wild flu, the virus that you encounter was one that you were vaccinated against. Vaccines are more effective when they correctly predict what varieties of flu will be circulating. But the more effective the immunization program, the more the ones that they predicted become and the less effective the vaccine becomes. However we all benefit because less flu is in the environment.

exhilaration 9y ago

Even if you do get the vaccine, there's no guarantee that it will actually include your new virulent strain. True, for reference look at this table from the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/vaccination/effectiveness-studies.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/vaccination/effectiven... 2011-12: 47% vaccine effectiveness 2012-13: 49% vaccine effectiveness 2013-14: 52% vaccine effectiveness 2014-15: 19% vaccine effectiveness 2015-16: 48% vaccine effectiveness 2016-17: 42% vaccine effectiveness But I still get my flu shot every year, better to be 40-50% protected than 0%.

lr4444lr 9y ago
Are you sure the R0 of the original article isn't determined accounting for the fact of vaccine ineffectiveness?
- exhilaration 9y ago
  I don't know, corrections are welcome!
- btilly 9y ago
  The R0 of the original article is determined on the assumption that nobody is immunized at all. Vaccine ineffectiveness is the odds that when you are potentially infected by a wild flu, the virus that you encounter was one that you were vaccinated against. Vaccines are more effective when they correctly predict what varieties of flu will be circulating. But the more effective the immunization program, the more the ones that they predicted become and the less effective the vaccine becomes. However we all benefit because less flu is in the environment.