5 ms·

Worth noting in the article (quoted out of order for emphasis): "Determining the R0 of a particular microbe is a matter of more than academic interest. If you

Worth noting in the article (quoted out of order for emphasis): "Determining the R0 of a particular microbe is a matter of more than academic interest. If you know how many secondary cases to expect from each infected person, you can figure out the level of herd immunity needed in the population to keep the microbe from spreading. This is calculated by taking the reciprocal of R0 and subtracting it from 1. For measles, with an R0 of 12 to 18, you need somewhere between 92 percent (1 – 1/12) and 95 percent (1 – 1/18) of the population to have effective immunity to keep the virus from spreading. For flu, it’s much lower — only around 50 percent. And yet we rarely attain even that level of immunity with vaccination. ... The calculated R0 of the West African Ebola outbreak was found to be around 2 in a 2014 publication, similar to the R0 computed for the 1918 influenza pandemic based on historical data. " All of you ladies and gents who blow off your annual flu vaccine because "you just don't seem to ever catch it" - you're just lucky. It's only a matter of time with modern travel and climate change until another virulent strain hits.

luke0016 9y ago
> All of you ladies and gents who blow off your annual flu vaccine because "you just don't seem to ever catch it" - you're just lucky. It's only a matter of time with modern travel and climate change until another virulent strain hits. Even if you do get the vaccine, there's no guarantee that it will actually include your new virulent strain. The flu vaccine is more involved (and uncertain) than others because influenza has a high mutation rate. It's a bit of a guessing game each year as to which strains should be included, and new ones crop up all the time.
- exhilaration 9y ago
  Even if you do get the vaccine, there's no guarantee that it will actually include your new virulent strain. True, for reference look at this table from the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/vaccination/effectiveness-studies.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/vaccination/effectiven... 2011-12: 47% vaccine effectiveness 2012-13: 49% vaccine effectiveness 2013-14: 52% vaccine effectiveness 2014-15: 19% vaccine effectiveness 2015-16: 48% vaccine effectiveness 2016-17: 42% vaccine effectiveness But I still get my flu shot every year, better to be 40-50% protected than 0%.
  - lr4444lr 9y ago
    Are you sure the R0 of the original article isn't determined accounting for the fact of vaccine ineffectiveness?
    - exhilaration 9y ago
      I don't know, corrections are welcome!
    - btilly 9y ago
      The R0 of the original article is determined on the assumption that nobody is immunized at all. Vaccine ineffectiveness is the odds that when you are potentially infected by a wild flu, the virus that you encounter was one that you were vaccinated against. Vaccines are more effective when they correctly predict what varieties of flu will be circulating. But the more effective the immunization program, the more the ones that they predicted become and the less effective the vaccine becomes. However we all benefit because less flu is in the environment.
learc83 9y ago
>All of you ladies and gents who blow off your annual flu vaccine because "you just don't seem to ever catch it" - you're just lucky That's not true. There is a significant portion of the population who are resistant to the flu. I'm 34 and I've never had the flu. None of my 3 siblings, nor my mom (who's 55) have either. This is despite never getting a flu shot, and spending several years riding public transit. It's well documented that many people just don't become symptomatic or even contagious. A study in 2011 infected 17 people with live active flu virus, and only half developed any symptoms at all. Furthermore, it's likely that people with this immune response never develop the viral load necessary to easily spread the virus.
- AlexandrB 9y ago
  > A study in 2011 infected 17 people with live active flu virus, and only half developed any symptoms at all. That's fascinating. Do you have a link to the study?
  - learc83 9y ago
    I can't find a link to it with a quick google search, but I remember it was done at the University of Michigan if you want to search further.
- ashark 9y ago
  From about ages 12-21 or 22 I caught nothing. I consistently had a ~36hr period of very slight sniffles about once a year, and nothing else at all. Never bothered with flu shot, took no precautions, ate absolute garbage. Then I started having 2-3 serious illnesses—very bad colds, the flu, sinus infections (I'd never had either of those last two)—every single year, and my nose is a little bit stuffy 100% of the time. 360 days a year, before, I couldn't blow my nose at all even if I wanted to—nothing would come out—but now I can a couple times a day, every day, when not actually sick. Aging sucks and/or HGH is a hell of a drug.
  - learc83 9y ago
    Sounds like you have allergy problems, or maybe a deviated septum, or something else causing sinus infections. That's definitely not just a result of being over the ripe old age of 22.
sushisource 9y ago
All in support of parent comment, though. I don't get the flu shot because I've had it once in about 10 years, and I hate getting shots. Sure, call me selfish, but it's just not worth it for me. Now, if I have to go get it, or pay a $200 fine or something - yeah, I'll suck it up and go do it.
- naasking 9y ago
  > Now, if I have to go get it, or pay a $200 fine or something - yeah, I'll suck it up and go do it. In an ideal world, all those who opt out should have to pay the medical expenses of those who get sick. Not vaccinating is the same sort of negative externality as environmental pollution. Rather than making it a fine, a high opt-out fee could cover it without the stigma of "breaking the law".
  - riot504 9y ago
    I don't get the shot and never will. Under your logic all those who eat fast food for lunch everyday and don't exercise should have to pay extra for medical insurance for not taking care of themselves.
    - CDRdude 9y ago
      I think they should pay more. However, it is harder to track than a yearly checkbox for if they had a flu shot.
    - osteele 9y ago
      What is the analogy between being too young or immunocompromised to receive the vaccine, and having poor diet and exercise habits?
    - kbenson 9y ago
      Some locations do charge a "health tax"[1] on certain food types and/or quantities of food. There are many ways to incentive/disincentivize behavior. 1: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fat_tax https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fat_tax
revelation 9y ago
"Flu shots" are an unique American silliness and seem to do more damage than good for the vaccinations we actually want people to have.
- geomark 9y ago
  That's a strange notion. I live in Southeast Asia and flu shots are routine here, even offered by schools to students.
  - tom_mellior 9y ago
    I've also had employers in different EU countries offer flu shots.

luke0016 9y ago

> All of you ladies and gents who blow off your annual flu vaccine because "you just don't seem to ever catch it" - you're just lucky. It's only a matter of time with modern travel and climate change until another virulent strain hits. Even if you do get the vaccine, there's no guarantee that it will actually include your new virulent strain. The flu vaccine is more involved (and uncertain) than others because influenza has a high mutation rate. It's a bit of a guessing game each year as to which strains should be included, and new ones crop up all the time.

exhilaration 9y ago
Even if you do get the vaccine, there's no guarantee that it will actually include your new virulent strain. True, for reference look at this table from the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/vaccination/effectiveness-studies.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/vaccination/effectiven... 2011-12: 47% vaccine effectiveness 2012-13: 49% vaccine effectiveness 2013-14: 52% vaccine effectiveness 2014-15: 19% vaccine effectiveness 2015-16: 48% vaccine effectiveness 2016-17: 42% vaccine effectiveness But I still get my flu shot every year, better to be 40-50% protected than 0%.
- lr4444lr 9y ago
  Are you sure the R0 of the original article isn't determined accounting for the fact of vaccine ineffectiveness?
  - exhilaration 9y ago
    I don't know, corrections are welcome!
  - btilly 9y ago
    The R0 of the original article is determined on the assumption that nobody is immunized at all. Vaccine ineffectiveness is the odds that when you are potentially infected by a wild flu, the virus that you encounter was one that you were vaccinated against. Vaccines are more effective when they correctly predict what varieties of flu will be circulating. But the more effective the immunization program, the more the ones that they predicted become and the less effective the vaccine becomes. However we all benefit because less flu is in the environment.

learc83 9y ago

>All of you ladies and gents who blow off your annual flu vaccine because "you just don't seem to ever catch it" - you're just lucky That's not true. There is a significant portion of the population who are resistant to the flu. I'm 34 and I've never had the flu. None of my 3 siblings, nor my mom (who's 55) have either. This is despite never getting a flu shot, and spending several years riding public transit. It's well documented that many people just don't become symptomatic or even contagious. A study in 2011 infected 17 people with live active flu virus, and only half developed any symptoms at all. Furthermore, it's likely that people with this immune response never develop the viral load necessary to easily spread the virus.

AlexandrB 9y ago
> A study in 2011 infected 17 people with live active flu virus, and only half developed any symptoms at all. That's fascinating. Do you have a link to the study?
- learc83 9y ago
  I can't find a link to it with a quick google search, but I remember it was done at the University of Michigan if you want to search further.
ashark 9y ago
From about ages 12-21 or 22 I caught nothing. I consistently had a ~36hr period of very slight sniffles about once a year, and nothing else at all. Never bothered with flu shot, took no precautions, ate absolute garbage. Then I started having 2-3 serious illnesses—very bad colds, the flu, sinus infections (I'd never had either of those last two)—every single year, and my nose is a little bit stuffy 100% of the time. 360 days a year, before, I couldn't blow my nose at all even if I wanted to—nothing would come out—but now I can a couple times a day, every day, when not actually sick. Aging sucks and/or HGH is a hell of a drug.
- learc83 9y ago
  Sounds like you have allergy problems, or maybe a deviated septum, or something else causing sinus infections. That's definitely not just a result of being over the ripe old age of 22.

sushisource 9y ago

All in support of parent comment, though. I don't get the flu shot because I've had it once in about 10 years, and I hate getting shots. Sure, call me selfish, but it's just not worth it for me. Now, if I have to go get it, or pay a $200 fine or something - yeah, I'll suck it up and go do it.

naasking 9y ago
> Now, if I have to go get it, or pay a $200 fine or something - yeah, I'll suck it up and go do it. In an ideal world, all those who opt out should have to pay the medical expenses of those who get sick. Not vaccinating is the same sort of negative externality as environmental pollution. Rather than making it a fine, a high opt-out fee could cover it without the stigma of "breaking the law".
- riot504 9y ago
  I don't get the shot and never will. Under your logic all those who eat fast food for lunch everyday and don't exercise should have to pay extra for medical insurance for not taking care of themselves.
  - CDRdude 9y ago
    I think they should pay more. However, it is harder to track than a yearly checkbox for if they had a flu shot.
  - osteele 9y ago
    What is the analogy between being too young or immunocompromised to receive the vaccine, and having poor diet and exercise habits?
  - kbenson 9y ago
    Some locations do charge a "health tax"[1] on certain food types and/or quantities of food. There are many ways to incentive/disincentivize behavior. 1: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fat_tax https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fat_tax

revelation 9y ago

"Flu shots" are an unique American silliness and seem to do more damage than good for the vaccinations we actually want people to have.

geomark 9y ago
That's a strange notion. I live in Southeast Asia and flu shots are routine here, even offered by schools to students.
- tom_mellior 9y ago
  I've also had employers in different EU countries offer flu shots.