4 ms·

We still need humans for weather forecast?

cryptoz 9y ago
Yes, very much so. Computer models are not forecasts, and it would be a terrible state of affairs if we did not have human forecasters to make forecasts.
- Pyxl101 9y ago
  Why are computer models not forecasts? Why would it be a terrible state of affairs not to have human forecasters? More specifically, what role do humans play in digesting the output of the computer model and producing the forecast? What adjustments or corrections are made to what the model says is going to happen, and based on what reasoning? "My gut tells me the tornado is going to move east, even though the computer says it will move west with an estimated 98% likelihood"? Are the humans doing more than creating a human-consumable verbal summary of what the computer model says will happen -- explaining the severity and location of the predicted weather in human terms?
  - cos2pi 9y ago
    Computer models certainly produce forecasts, but humans are needed to interpret these forecasts. At each National Weather Service office, forecasters typically use model output to guide their daily forecast products, such as temperatures and precipitation probabilities. However, these forecasters are aware of smaller-scale nuances of their forecast area, such as topographic influences, land-sea interactions or urban heat island effects, which models may struggle to resolve. Human knowledge of model limitations helps to produce a better forecast. A further example would be hurricane forecasting, where National Hurricane Center forecasts typically outperform most models (see http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify6.shtml http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify6.shtml for starters).
    - Pyxl101 9y ago
      Thanks for the details.
astrodust 9y ago
Nah, we can just let the computers spew out numbers and trust that they're good: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQuVOQwRvQ8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQuVOQwRvQ8
xamuel 9y ago
I spent awhile as a weather forecaster in the USAF. I got a strong impression the weather squadron's purpose had nothing to do with predicting weather, and everything to do with providing an additional scapegoat when things go wrong.
tomkinstinch 9y ago
Yes. Someone needs to maintain and operate the weather stations, RADAR hardware, weather buoys, and weather balloons.

Yes, very much so. Computer models are not forecasts, and it would be a terrible state of affairs if we did not have human forecasters to make forecasts.

Pyxl101 9y ago
Why are computer models not forecasts? Why would it be a terrible state of affairs not to have human forecasters? More specifically, what role do humans play in digesting the output of the computer model and producing the forecast? What adjustments or corrections are made to what the model says is going to happen, and based on what reasoning? "My gut tells me the tornado is going to move east, even though the computer says it will move west with an estimated 98% likelihood"? Are the humans doing more than creating a human-consumable verbal summary of what the computer model says will happen -- explaining the severity and location of the predicted weather in human terms?
- cos2pi 9y ago
  Computer models certainly produce forecasts, but humans are needed to interpret these forecasts. At each National Weather Service office, forecasters typically use model output to guide their daily forecast products, such as temperatures and precipitation probabilities. However, these forecasters are aware of smaller-scale nuances of their forecast area, such as topographic influences, land-sea interactions or urban heat island effects, which models may struggle to resolve. Human knowledge of model limitations helps to produce a better forecast. A further example would be hurricane forecasting, where National Hurricane Center forecasts typically outperform most models (see http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify6.shtml http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify6.shtml for starters).
  - Pyxl101 9y ago
    Thanks for the details.

astrodust 9y ago

Nah, we can just let the computers spew out numbers and trust that they're good: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQuVOQwRvQ8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQuVOQwRvQ8

xamuel 9y ago

I spent awhile as a weather forecaster in the USAF. I got a strong impression the weather squadron's purpose had nothing to do with predicting weather, and everything to do with providing an additional scapegoat when things go wrong.

tomkinstinch 9y ago

Yes. Someone needs to maintain and operate the weather stations, RADAR hardware, weather buoys, and weather balloons.