4 ms·

In this situation (4 kids, 2000 PLN per month from working) only the first child gets 500 PLN per month conditional on not working. The remaining 3 kids get 150

by ajuc 9y ago

In this situation (4 kids, 2000 PLN per month from working) only the first child gets 500 PLN per month conditional on not working. The remaining 3 kids get 1500 PLN per month no matter if you work or no. So it's a decision between 3500 per month or 2000 per month and free time. So 500+ (3500 or 2000 and free time) is something between communism (2000 or 2000 and free time) and UBI (4000 or 2000 and free time). Also like 90%+ of society has 2 kids or less, so it's tuned for 2 kids, not 4, and that's where the decision is more interesting (2500 or 1000 and free time). And there's black market for jobs, especially in poor areas, so there you can have both (and only the state loses, because it pushes people not to pay taxes). Yeah in conclusion I think 500+ is even worse than UBI, but thankfully it's only 500 PLN per child, so around 25% of average salary.

AstralStorm 9y ago
The main problem with it is that we cannot afford UBI. Back of the envelope calculations say we would go bankrupt within a year giving out just 500 PLN/month/person. Which is way not enough to live on. A serious amount would be 4x that. (Which would amount to about 100 billion PLN or 16 billion Euro or similar USD. Not counting overhead. Essentially eating a sizable chunk of GDP. Some ways to cut it would be free public housing and transport - where? How much?) Even 500+ as currently implemented is too expensive. It is essentially financed by debt right now. And currently Poland is somewhere around 60% debt. I suspect even USA cannot afford it long term given the state of debt. They had trouble even with public healthcare.
- ajuc 9y ago
  We're giving 500 PLN a month to 3 800 000 people right now. If we scaled that to full population it would be 50 PLN. 6 times that (so - 300 PLN) isn't that big a stretch (especially that you get like half of that back in taxes from increased consumption). It's doable for a few years. Especially, if you cut some other social costs (but then it has to be more than 300 PLN per month).
  - AstralStorm 9y ago
    As I mentioned, 500+ is already financed by debt as the alleged other budget savings that were supposed to pay for it never materialised. (They amounted to populism.)

by ajuc 9y ago

AstralStorm 9y ago

The main problem with it is that we cannot afford UBI. Back of the envelope calculations say we would go bankrupt within a year giving out just 500 PLN/month/person. Which is way not enough to live on. A serious amount would be 4x that. (Which would amount to about 100 billion PLN or 16 billion Euro or similar USD. Not counting overhead. Essentially eating a sizable chunk of GDP. Some ways to cut it would be free public housing and transport - where? How much?) Even 500+ as currently implemented is too expensive. It is essentially financed by debt right now. And currently Poland is somewhere around 60% debt. I suspect even USA cannot afford it long term given the state of debt. They had trouble even with public healthcare.

ajuc 9y ago
We're giving 500 PLN a month to 3 800 000 people right now. If we scaled that to full population it would be 50 PLN. 6 times that (so - 300 PLN) isn't that big a stretch (especially that you get like half of that back in taxes from increased consumption). It's doable for a few years. Especially, if you cut some other social costs (but then it has to be more than 300 PLN per month).
- AstralStorm 9y ago
  As I mentioned, 500+ is already financed by debt as the alleged other budget savings that were supposed to pay for it never materialised. (They amounted to populism.)