7 ms·

Why do people keep giving Magic Leap money?

62 points by rdoherty 9y ago

mrsmee89 9y ago
"It’s producing a regular stream of patent applications for augmented reality glasses technology, which everyone seems to agree is going to be important at some point". If they own the patents that ar companies must use and ar is "the next big thing", maybe that's why people keep giving them money. They don't really have to produce anything more.
- octaveguin 9y ago
  If true, that's incredibly depressing. Magic Leap would become the complete rent seeking lead weight to the next platform revolution.
- dandare 9y ago
  Exactly. Let's not forget that "Google bought Motorola for $12.5B, sold it for $2.9B, and called the deal ‘a success’", purely for Motorola's patent portfolio.
karmakaze 9y ago
I haven't been keeping up with Magic Leap (ML) or recent Mixed Reality developments, but skimming the currently available information, my best guess is that Magic Leap is making a completely new system from hardware, to software and even content. Sort of like back in the Apple Lisa days, pre-1984 when the Macintosh was unveiled. I've only heard of Microsoft and Avegant (that I just googled) working on Mixed Reality. The problem with these two and anyone other than Magic Leap is that they're only working on making the tech. They're not making a complete platform. Of course they could leverage existing platforms (PCs or Consoles) but then the interfaces would mostly be translations of them. Not that ML has shown anything better, but I get the sense that what's in development is that better platform. From history we can see how a platform arises. Imagine planning the iPhone/AppStore and building iOS and starter content for it. It's going to replace current movies, video games, and computer systems. Oculus is making a complete platform but their bet is on VR not MR. It could likely be adapted to MR if that gets better traction, but without blatent copying of the human interface it would be a sub-par experience. Anyone know if Microsoft or anyone else is actively developing an MR environment for market?
- imron 9y ago
  > Anyone know if Microsoft or anyone else is actively developing an MR environment for market? You mean like the Hololens? https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/hololens https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/hololens
  - karmakaze 9y ago
    Yes, but I was asking specifically about things other than the hardware and individual apps, like is there a flavour of Windows specifically for the HoloLens and how significanly different is that UI?
    - WillPostForFood 9y ago
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_Mixed_Reality https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_Mixed_Reality
- supermatt 9y ago
  I think you are using the word "platform" when you mean "user interface". User interfaces can be changed to suit the task at hand - e.g. MS Word vs Doom. vs Job Simulator vs Star chart
mynewtb 9y ago
Same like bitcoin. Even though it has no realworld use in its current form, it might have in the future so people speculate on that.
- amrrs 9y ago
  Not sure if it's a right analogy. Eventually bitcoin could be traded as an instrument but Magic Leap's case could be never be like that since if they're bankrupt no one would come forward to buy their bonds. People bet on bitcoin just like they bet on Gold or any other entity. People bet on Magic Leap with the hope that Magic Leap could be provide some magic - that eventually could be galloped by AR-hungry companies like Snap, Google, Apple - since all of them always want to beat FB - which already got Oculus.
- bdcravens 9y ago
  Bitcoin has limited use, but I wouldn't say no realworld use. There are some very real places you can spend it, and some provide anonymous advantages (like VPN access). It's also seeing uptake in use for remittance and combatting hyperinflated markets.
- gehsty 9y ago
  Bitcoin has a use now, people use to store their wealth away from prying eyes, I think this is why China recently tried to ban it.... Magic leap could be the future, it could be complete vapour ware, though I like to be positive about these things as they could be doing things the Apple way and will only announce finished products, not technologies....
cm2187 9y ago
I just can’t convince myself that AR is the next smartphone revolution. Most of the applications I have heard about feel like the iPhone X demo. Kind of cool they can do that but will I use that more than once to try it? In addition to the challenges mentioned in the article, you have to convince people who are not wearing glasses that they should start to. And people who are that they should swap their super-light glasses for something heavier, that may be painful for their nose or neck. And that they need one more high tech device in their life to budget for, recharge and replace. Then what are you really going to use it for? Giving you some meta data on people you see? Name would be nice but how many times in a week do I come across someone I sort of know but can’t remember the name and I would need it? Not many. Identities of complete strangers in the street? Outright creepy. Getting their birthday or the name of their dog? I don’t want my life to look like my linkedin feed where I am flooded with useless notifications about my 1000 contacts work anniversaries. I am sure there will be some applications, mostly industrial / professional. Certainly the sort of thing you will want to hand over to people at a conference or networking event, where this metadata is super useful to make the right contacts. Or for shopkeepers to recognise their customers in real time and having a full history of their previous purchases. But as a mainstream consumer product, I am still waiting to hear about a convincing use case.
- karmakaze 9y ago
  Google Glass was/is AR (information overlays). Magic Leap, HoloLens do Mixed Reality. The difference being that the synthesized objects behave as if 'attached' or otherwise interact with reality.
  - cm2187 9y ago
    But isn’t it even more of a corner case then, basically certain games? Or the ikea “how does that sofa fits in the room” example (which I might use once every 5 years...).
    - supermatt 9y ago
      More go for a run in the rainforest, walk down the street and see people in the latest virtual fashion, sit in your empty room and see it as opulent luxury, etc. Im inclined to think we are over a decade or two away from that (at least to the extent that the lines of reality would be truly blurred), but I understand thats what Magic Leap is hyped to deliver.
Pica_soO 9y ago
What is still missing is a good interface. Not this sticks with buttons, something that allows comfortable control and feels like a keyboard without requiring constant tension to hold. It should be like a glove, with the fingertips as selector and the other fingersegments as keys. Thumb to tip is a-e, thumb to indexfinger segments up is systemkeys (sorted by need to avoid difficult to reach segments as being quertyfied. Thumb to third indexfinger segment (with indexfinger pointed) is click at a object. The Palm could work as a sort of gesture-touchpad, for more complicated (cross-hand) keycombos. How to implement? Well as a prototype- take a latex glove, glue short range rfid chips to the segments and rfid readers to the fingertips. The rest is history as they say.
- Pica_soO 9y ago
  Thought about it- the select (leftclick on the mouse) should be the most natural point to something gesture, so its indexfinger pointing and thumb-tip touching the midfinger-tip. Also RFID is not bad for precise measurements. Problem is haptics, selection safety (visual display in AR, and user-comfort. Any glovelike device (even if its just a fishing net of cables and sensor) will feel uncomfortable after a while).. The good thing is there are really a lot of comfortable combos possible with just the fingertips touching one another.
gadders 9y ago
I previously posted a link to a guy's blog post where he did an examination of the patent filings and what the technology was likely to be able to do: Discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13653537 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13653537 Blog Post: http://www.kguttag.com/2016/12/06/magic-leap-when-reality-hits-the-fan/ http://www.kguttag.com/2016/12/06/magic-leap-when-reality-hi...
srrge 9y ago
Sunk cost fallacy
deleted 9y ago
[deleted]

62 points by rdoherty 9y ago

"It’s producing a regular stream of patent applications for augmented reality glasses technology, which everyone seems to agree is going to be important at some point". If they own the patents that ar companies must use and ar is "the next big thing", maybe that's why people keep giving them money. They don't really have to produce anything more.

octaveguin 9y ago
If true, that's incredibly depressing. Magic Leap would become the complete rent seeking lead weight to the next platform revolution.
dandare 9y ago
Exactly. Let's not forget that "Google bought Motorola for $12.5B, sold it for $2.9B, and called the deal ‘a success’", purely for Motorola's patent portfolio.

karmakaze 9y ago

I haven't been keeping up with Magic Leap (ML) or recent Mixed Reality developments, but skimming the currently available information, my best guess is that Magic Leap is making a completely new system from hardware, to software and even content. Sort of like back in the Apple Lisa days, pre-1984 when the Macintosh was unveiled. I've only heard of Microsoft and Avegant (that I just googled) working on Mixed Reality. The problem with these two and anyone other than Magic Leap is that they're only working on making the tech. They're not making a complete platform. Of course they could leverage existing platforms (PCs or Consoles) but then the interfaces would mostly be translations of them. Not that ML has shown anything better, but I get the sense that what's in development is that better platform. From history we can see how a platform arises. Imagine planning the iPhone/AppStore and building iOS and starter content for it. It's going to replace current movies, video games, and computer systems. Oculus is making a complete platform but their bet is on VR not MR. It could likely be adapted to MR if that gets better traction, but without blatent copying of the human interface it would be a sub-par experience. Anyone know if Microsoft or anyone else is actively developing an MR environment for market?

imron 9y ago
> Anyone know if Microsoft or anyone else is actively developing an MR environment for market? You mean like the Hololens? https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/hololens https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/hololens
- karmakaze 9y ago
  Yes, but I was asking specifically about things other than the hardware and individual apps, like is there a flavour of Windows specifically for the HoloLens and how significanly different is that UI?
  - WillPostForFood 9y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_Mixed_Reality https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_Mixed_Reality
supermatt 9y ago
I think you are using the word "platform" when you mean "user interface". User interfaces can be changed to suit the task at hand - e.g. MS Word vs Doom. vs Job Simulator vs Star chart

mynewtb 9y ago

Same like bitcoin. Even though it has no realworld use in its current form, it might have in the future so people speculate on that.

amrrs 9y ago
Not sure if it's a right analogy. Eventually bitcoin could be traded as an instrument but Magic Leap's case could be never be like that since if they're bankrupt no one would come forward to buy their bonds. People bet on bitcoin just like they bet on Gold or any other entity. People bet on Magic Leap with the hope that Magic Leap could be provide some magic - that eventually could be galloped by AR-hungry companies like Snap, Google, Apple - since all of them always want to beat FB - which already got Oculus.
bdcravens 9y ago
Bitcoin has limited use, but I wouldn't say no realworld use. There are some very real places you can spend it, and some provide anonymous advantages (like VPN access). It's also seeing uptake in use for remittance and combatting hyperinflated markets.
gehsty 9y ago
Bitcoin has a use now, people use to store their wealth away from prying eyes, I think this is why China recently tried to ban it.... Magic leap could be the future, it could be complete vapour ware, though I like to be positive about these things as they could be doing things the Apple way and will only announce finished products, not technologies....

cm2187 9y ago

I just can’t convince myself that AR is the next smartphone revolution. Most of the applications I have heard about feel like the iPhone X demo. Kind of cool they can do that but will I use that more than once to try it? In addition to the challenges mentioned in the article, you have to convince people who are not wearing glasses that they should start to. And people who are that they should swap their super-light glasses for something heavier, that may be painful for their nose or neck. And that they need one more high tech device in their life to budget for, recharge and replace. Then what are you really going to use it for? Giving you some meta data on people you see? Name would be nice but how many times in a week do I come across someone I sort of know but can’t remember the name and I would need it? Not many. Identities of complete strangers in the street? Outright creepy. Getting their birthday or the name of their dog? I don’t want my life to look like my linkedin feed where I am flooded with useless notifications about my 1000 contacts work anniversaries. I am sure there will be some applications, mostly industrial / professional. Certainly the sort of thing you will want to hand over to people at a conference or networking event, where this metadata is super useful to make the right contacts. Or for shopkeepers to recognise their customers in real time and having a full history of their previous purchases. But as a mainstream consumer product, I am still waiting to hear about a convincing use case.

karmakaze 9y ago
Google Glass was/is AR (information overlays). Magic Leap, HoloLens do Mixed Reality. The difference being that the synthesized objects behave as if 'attached' or otherwise interact with reality.
- cm2187 9y ago
  But isn’t it even more of a corner case then, basically certain games? Or the ikea “how does that sofa fits in the room” example (which I might use once every 5 years...).
  - supermatt 9y ago
    More go for a run in the rainforest, walk down the street and see people in the latest virtual fashion, sit in your empty room and see it as opulent luxury, etc. Im inclined to think we are over a decade or two away from that (at least to the extent that the lines of reality would be truly blurred), but I understand thats what Magic Leap is hyped to deliver.

Pica_soO 9y ago

What is still missing is a good interface. Not this sticks with buttons, something that allows comfortable control and feels like a keyboard without requiring constant tension to hold. It should be like a glove, with the fingertips as selector and the other fingersegments as keys. Thumb to tip is a-e, thumb to indexfinger segments up is systemkeys (sorted by need to avoid difficult to reach segments as being quertyfied. Thumb to third indexfinger segment (with indexfinger pointed) is click at a object. The Palm could work as a sort of gesture-touchpad, for more complicated (cross-hand) keycombos. How to implement? Well as a prototype- take a latex glove, glue short range rfid chips to the segments and rfid readers to the fingertips. The rest is history as they say.

Pica_soO 9y ago
Thought about it- the select (leftclick on the mouse) should be the most natural point to something gesture, so its indexfinger pointing and thumb-tip touching the midfinger-tip. Also RFID is not bad for precise measurements. Problem is haptics, selection safety (visual display in AR, and user-comfort. Any glovelike device (even if its just a fishing net of cables and sensor) will feel uncomfortable after a while).. The good thing is there are really a lot of comfortable combos possible with just the fingertips touching one another.

gadders 9y ago

I previously posted a link to a guy's blog post where he did an examination of the patent filings and what the technology was likely to be able to do: Discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13653537 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13653537 Blog Post: http://www.kguttag.com/2016/12/06/magic-leap-when-reality-hits-the-fan/ http://www.kguttag.com/2016/12/06/magic-leap-when-reality-hi...

srrge 9y ago

Sunk cost fallacy

deleted 9y ago

[deleted]