12 ms·

Was talking to a friend of mine that’s at SoftBank. FWIW he mentioned that internally Son is targeting $880Bn for the three Vision Funds!

by lquist 9y ago

Eridrus 9y ago
Is there any info on what sort of returns Softbank is getting? Or on what basis investors think that sinking so much money into this fund is a good idea?
- agibsonccc 9y ago
  I can't talk about too much, but we do quite a bit with softbank[1], and I live in Japan working with HQ. The bets they are making are actually pretty predictable, they are all more "sure" wins. Many of these companies will not exit for a long time. They are making some (in my opinion) questionable bets on more early stage companies though. If the bets are < 100 million, some of these are more traditional R&D bets that might not give proper returns. Of note here is that "softbank" is actually a massive investment fund though. There are multiple sources of money, not just 1 "vision" fund. Even the way the decision making is done is pretty fragmented. Edit: wrong press release link [1]https://www.forbes.com/sites/aarontilley/2017/09/18/skymind-deep-learning-tool-robots/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/aarontilley/2017/09/18/skymind-... [2]: https://skymind.ai/press/softbank https://skymind.ai/press/softbank
- mbesto 9y ago
  My understanding is that they are 100-year theses (serious), so I don't think they operate under the same return trajectories you would see elsewhere.
agibsonccc 9y ago
This was already public information? https://www.recode.net/2017/10/19/16506218/softbank-new-investment-vision-fund-masayoshi-son https://www.recode.net/2017/10/19/16506218/softbank-new-inve...
- thisisit 9y ago
  I am just wondering - people say there is no bubble until there is news of irrational exuberance. Bubbles like 2001/08 etc. I am no VC but doesn't this sound like the irrational exuberance?
  - agibsonccc 9y ago
    I won't deny we're in a unique situation right now. Being one of the beneficiaries of there being a bubble, I won't deny I'm biased here. That being said, this is a bit of an interesting situation because we are largely seeing an alternative set of vehicles that aren't silicon valley funding tech innovation outside of silicon valley as well as in. Our personal situation, we are seeing larger innovation outside the valley than in in terms of both AI publishing (China) and alternative use cases. I won't try to predict when a bubble will pop, but there are both tons of capital right now as well as tons of naysayers looking for the chance to say "any minute now" and look to be right. I really can't say yes or no on whether we will see this pop or just evolve over time. You will see articles online both saying "any minute now" and "the bubble will continue". I'm not sure to what degree we are in a bubble as much as we are seeing money shift outside the valley.
    - thisisit 9y ago
      Correct me if I am wrong but the point you are trying to make is - This is unique because it is alternative funding schemes for tech but it might not be as bad because money is going/coming from outside the valley? As you say in your other posts - they are making predictable "sure" wins while some, in your opinion, are questionable specially in early stage companies. So that begs question - Do they have enough "sure" wins to bet the house worth 880 billion? Or they might be used to fund the questionable early stage companies? If it's latter, then they might end up creating a bubble.
      - agibsonccc 9y ago
        Right on first point. Considering they are ranging the investment from public markets (nvidia) to large scale private investments like uber, I'd say they're banking on a ton of these companies going public long term to make the ROI worth it. As for some of these questionable bets, I think the goal there is the traditional unicorn moon shot type return where 1 of those investments will return the whole "pool of smaller investments". I wouldn't be surprised if they put the funding in to pools and divide up the risk like that. In general, I wouldn't be surprised if they invest in more public companies if they run out of late stage private bets to make. As for whether they create a bubble, you might be right. Like I said, I can't/won't try to comment on whether it's a bubble or not. It's just strange because we have a large foreign entity making large scale private bets in the valley as well as abroad.

Was talking to a friend of mine that’s at SoftBank. FWIW he mentioned that internally Son is targeting $880Bn for the three Vision Funds!

by lquist 9y ago

Was talking to a friend of mine that’s at SoftBank. FWIW he mentioned that internally Son is targeting $880Bn for the three Vision Funds!

Eridrus 9y ago

Is there any info on what sort of returns Softbank is getting? Or on what basis investors think that sinking so much money into this fund is a good idea?

agibsonccc 9y ago
I can't talk about too much, but we do quite a bit with softbank[1], and I live in Japan working with HQ. The bets they are making are actually pretty predictable, they are all more "sure" wins. Many of these companies will not exit for a long time. They are making some (in my opinion) questionable bets on more early stage companies though. If the bets are < 100 million, some of these are more traditional R&D bets that might not give proper returns. Of note here is that "softbank" is actually a massive investment fund though. There are multiple sources of money, not just 1 "vision" fund. Even the way the decision making is done is pretty fragmented. Edit: wrong press release link [1]https://www.forbes.com/sites/aarontilley/2017/09/18/skymind-deep-learning-tool-robots/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/aarontilley/2017/09/18/skymind-... [2]: https://skymind.ai/press/softbank https://skymind.ai/press/softbank
mbesto 9y ago
My understanding is that they are 100-year theses (serious), so I don't think they operate under the same return trajectories you would see elsewhere.

agibsonccc 9y ago

This was already public information? https://www.recode.net/2017/10/19/16506218/softbank-new-investment-vision-fund-masayoshi-son https://www.recode.net/2017/10/19/16506218/softbank-new-inve...

thisisit 9y ago
I am just wondering - people say there is no bubble until there is news of irrational exuberance. Bubbles like 2001/08 etc. I am no VC but doesn't this sound like the irrational exuberance?
- agibsonccc 9y ago
  I won't deny we're in a unique situation right now. Being one of the beneficiaries of there being a bubble, I won't deny I'm biased here. That being said, this is a bit of an interesting situation because we are largely seeing an alternative set of vehicles that aren't silicon valley funding tech innovation outside of silicon valley as well as in. Our personal situation, we are seeing larger innovation outside the valley than in in terms of both AI publishing (China) and alternative use cases. I won't try to predict when a bubble will pop, but there are both tons of capital right now as well as tons of naysayers looking for the chance to say "any minute now" and look to be right. I really can't say yes or no on whether we will see this pop or just evolve over time. You will see articles online both saying "any minute now" and "the bubble will continue". I'm not sure to what degree we are in a bubble as much as we are seeing money shift outside the valley.
  - thisisit 9y ago
    Correct me if I am wrong but the point you are trying to make is - This is unique because it is alternative funding schemes for tech but it might not be as bad because money is going/coming from outside the valley? As you say in your other posts - they are making predictable "sure" wins while some, in your opinion, are questionable specially in early stage companies. So that begs question - Do they have enough "sure" wins to bet the house worth 880 billion? Or they might be used to fund the questionable early stage companies? If it's latter, then they might end up creating a bubble.
    - agibsonccc 9y ago
      Right on first point. Considering they are ranging the investment from public markets (nvidia) to large scale private investments like uber, I'd say they're banking on a ton of these companies going public long term to make the ROI worth it. As for some of these questionable bets, I think the goal there is the traditional unicorn moon shot type return where 1 of those investments will return the whole "pool of smaller investments". I wouldn't be surprised if they put the funding in to pools and divide up the risk like that. In general, I wouldn't be surprised if they invest in more public companies if they run out of late stage private bets to make. As for whether they create a bubble, you might be right. Like I said, I can't/won't try to comment on whether it's a bubble or not. It's just strange because we have a large foreign entity making large scale private bets in the valley as well as abroad.